Three reasons why Kansas State will win; three reasons why Kansas State will lose vs. TCU
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Kansas State’s homecoming game against TCU could come down to a battle of two good quarterbacks. A nagging injury to K-State’s best running back could be a factor, too.
K-State quarterback Avery Johnson is coming off one of his best games in a 35-34 loss to Baylor. Johnson completed 29-of-45 passes for 339 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for 72 yards and one touchdown. But he also threw a costly pick-six late in the fourth quarter that gave Baylor a 31-30 lead.
TCU’S Josh Hoover also is talented (more on Hoover below). Either of these quarterbacks could be the difference in the outcome of the Big 12 game.
The Wichita Eagle reported that K-State junior running back Dylan Edwards will not play Saturday due to “an undisclosed lower-body injury.” He has been plagued by an ankle injury since the season opener.
He played last week against Baylor and gained 26 yards on 10 carries. The Wichita Eagle reported that Edwards has been healthy for only one game, the 34-20 K-State victory over UCF. Edwards had 166 yards and scored one touchdown against UCF. Edwards did not play against North Dakota and Army.
In his absence, expect Joe Jackson and DeVon Rice to get more carries. Edwards had a career-high 13 carries for 61 yards against Baylor. He also had five receptions for 41 yards.
For every game, we will give you three reasons the Wildcats will win and three reasons they won’t. K-State is 2-4 and 1-2 in the conference. TCU, which lost to Georgia, 65-7, in the national championship game in January, 2003, is 4-1, 1-1.
Why Kansas State will win
Time for a change in luck?
K-State’s four losses were by a combined 13 points. That’s not easy to do. No team in the country has had five games decided by one score. The Wildcats are 1-4 in one-score games.
In four of the five games, the Wildcats had possession with a chance to either tie the score to take the lead. K-State is overdue for a timely play, or something to change its fortunes.
Last season, K-State was 4-2 in one-score games.
“Obviously, the margin for error is really small in the Big 12,” K-State coach Chris Klieman said.
“We played well at times on Saturday, but we didn’t play well enough — especially at critical times — to come out of there with the win.”
Special teams
With so many close games, the Wildcats’ kicking game and special teams could factor into the outcome.
K-State kicker Luis Rodriguez is 8-of-9 on field-goal attempts. He nailed a 51-yarder at Arizona. He also is 19-of-19 on extra points. He could make the difference.
K-State punter Simon McClannan averages 44.3 yards per kick, fourth in the Big 12. He could be a factor.
Bryce Noernberg has a 99-yard kickoff return against Arizona, so he is a threat.
Time is running out on K-State
K-State opened the season as the Associated Press’ 17th-ranked team in the country. The Wildcats were considered one of the favorites to win the Big 12 championship, which would get them into the College Football Playoff.
Now, with the second half of the season starting, K-State is trying to salvage what it can from the season. The Wildcats need four wins in their final six games to become bowl eligible.
“We have to do some things schematically to help ourselves a little bit and shore some things up,” Klieman said.
"You have to stay the course, bottom line. You have to keep fighting, keep battling and get ready for a really good TCU team coming here.”
Why TCU will win
Josh Hoover
The junior is having an outstanding season. He has completed 113-of-168 passes (67.3 percent) for 1,517 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Hoover is sixth in the nation with 303.4 passing yards per game. If TCU needs a big play, Hoover ranks second in the nation with 23 completions of 20-plus yards. K-State ranks 120th in allowing plays of more than 20 yards (29 plays).
Baylor ranks 11th in total offense at 504.2 yards. K-State ranks 81st in defense, allowing 376 yards per game.
This looks like TCU’s path to victory.
Horned Frogs defense
K-State is coming off a 500-yard game against Baylor.
TCU’s defense, ranked 85th and allowing 378.8 yards per game, has a challenge in K-State’s Johnson. If the Horned Frogs walk away with a victory Saturday, they will have to contain Johnson.
TCU motivation
TCU doesn’t believe in K-State’s 2-4 record. It knows the Wildcats present problems. K-State is a 1.5-point home underdog at most sportsbooks.
“They’ve lost a couple of games this year at the very end of games, had some bad things happen to them down the stretch, but this is a typical Kansas State team,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said at his weekly news conference.
“They’re dangerous, they’re well-coached. They play hard, do things the right way.”
Gotta believe Dykes will have the Horned Frogs focused on the task in front of them. K-State has won five of the last six meetings. Added TCU motivation: Its last win in Manhattan was in 2017. Two years ago, TCU lost at K-State, 41-3, in Hoover’s second career start.
The winner: Expect a tough game but K-State’s season is on the line. The Wildcats have to contain Hoover to win the game. K-State 30, Baylor 27. Season record: 2-0.
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Chuck Bausman is a writer for Kansas State on SI. Chuck formerly was the Executive Sports Editor of the Philadelphia Daily News, Executive Sports Editor of the Courier-Post in South Jersey and Sports Copy Editor for the Detroit Free Press. He has been a Big Ten enthusiast for nearly forever. He learned how to cuss by watching Philly sports. You can reach Chuck at: bausmac@icloud.com