Three Reasons Why Kansas State Will Win; Three Reasons Why Kansas State Will Lose vs. UCF

After a bye week spent in intense, pads-on practices, Kansas State can hit someone in another uniform on Saturday.

Undefeated UCF comes to Manhattan for an 11 a.m. CDT kickoff. An easier foe might have been ideal for K-State, but the schedule is what it is.

The Wildcats are a 5.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks.

“I think the bye was a big focus early in the week for us as coaches on self-scouting and what we’ve done well and what we haven’t done well,” K-State co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks/associate head coach Matt Wells said at a news conference Thursday.

“I think you try to grab the good and you fix the fixable.

“Practice was just getting back to basics and fundamentals and running the ball better and trying to protect the quarterback better and doing things that we do better.”

For every game, we will give you three reasons the Wildcats will win and three reasons they won’t.

Why Kansas State will win

The Wildcats need the game

The game means more to the Wildcats. You could say their season is riding on this game and not be completely wrong.

For the 1-3 Wildcats, the season needs to get back on track.

Coming off a bye week, with a home game, the Wildcats have plenty of factors on their side. They are getting healthier and should have plenty of motivation on their side.

The greatest motivation might be the simplest: The need to win.

The Bill Belichick factor

UCF defeated Bill Belichick and North Carolina last Saturday, 34-9. Can’t imagine how inspired the Knights were to take it to the six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach, who apparently doesn’t have a loaded team in his first season in Chapel Hill.

That could play into K-State’s hands. Will UCF’s have a letdown, which would be understandable and maybe understood? If so, that could affect the game — and not in UCF’s favor.

UCF knocked off North Carolina and coach Bill Belichick last Saturday. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Another way to look at the post-Belichick game: UCF is infused with confidence and nothing can stop it. We lean toward the UNC win hurting UCF, if only slightly. That gives K-State an advantage.

Wildcats’ defense

K-State’s defense has been its best side of the ball, so that’s the strength on which the Wildcats should depend.

K-State ranks 68th in total defense (out of 136 teams), which isn’t great but it’s an area where the Wildcats might have an advantage. K-State has allowed 352.8 yards per game.

Scoring defense also has been a problem. K-State is tied for 85th, allowing 26.5 points per game.

Since UCF put up 34 points against a Belichick-coached team, this side of the ball is where K-State’s emphasis should be to stop UCF. The Knights are ranked 28th in points scored with an average of 39.7 per game.

Why UCF will win

Shawn Clark

The UCF football family is dealing with the sudden death last weekend of offensive line coach Shawn Clark.

“I’ve met Shawn a couple of times ... my heart goes out to his family,” K-State coach Chris Klieman said at a Monday news conference about Clark, who was 50.

“My heart goes out to Coach [Scott] Frost and the UCF athletic department and the football family. To go through something like that in-season, I can’t even imagine, but I know they’ll lift Shawn up and play their tails off for him.”

Over time, some teams have emotionally rallied behind a fallen comrade, and other teams have fallen apart under the emotional strain.

The suspicion is that UCF will come up big to honor their coach.

Scott Frost

Unless he’s coaching at Nebraska, where the former Huskers quarterback and hero went an unsightly 16-31 in five seasons, Frost has shown to be a dynamic coach at UCF.

In two full seasons and three games in 2025 at UCF, Frost is 22-7, including a 3-0 start this season. In 2016, Frost’s first at UCF, the Knights were 6-7. In 2017, UCF proclaimed a mythical national championship after a 13-0 record.

Maybe Frost is at home in Orlando. One thing we do know: Under Frost, UCF doesn’t lose much. Nothing mythical about that.

Tayven Jackson

The UCF quarterback was in a fight for the starting job last week as teammate Cam Fancher seemed on track to start. Orlando-area media believed Fancher was going to start.

Jackson started and played well against Belichick and the Tar Heels. The redshirt junior completed 25-of-32 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown. He also gained 66 yards on the ground and scored a touchdown. He is completing 70 percent of his passes this season.

This kind of dual threat is trouble for most teams. Coming off a great performance, expect Jackson to give the Wildcats a whole host of problems.

The winner: Kansas State needs this game to begin to save its season. UCF is no easy opponent. Just think the Wildcats will win a close one, 27-24.

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