Bart Torvik Projects Louisville's 2026-27 Season

Tipoff might be six months away, but we have some idea of how the 2026-27 men's college basketball season might pan out for the Cardinals.

Mar 21, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals mascot Louie looks on during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - While this past season might not have panned out like many had hoped, the Louisville men's basketball program continues to trend in the right direction.

In his second season at the helm, while it was an up-and-down campaign, head coach Pat Kelsey was still able to guide the Cardinals to a 24-11 overall record. UofL might have finished the season unranked after coming in as high as No. 6, but they were at least able to win their first NCAA Tournament game since 2017.

Roughly a month-and-a-half since their season-ending loss to Michigan State in the second round of the Big Dance, Kelsey and his retooled coaching staff have been aggressive out on the roster construction front. So far, they seem to be putting together a roster that can be amongst the best in the nation, so how well will they perform in year three under Kelsey?

It might be a little early to tell, considering Louisville's non-conference schedule isn't complete yet, but we already have some idea thanks to the college basketball analytics site Bart Torvik.

Despite tipoff not coming for another six months, Torvik already has running projections for the upcoming 2026-27 season. This includes overall ranking, offensive and defensive ratings, and more.

Many college basketball analysts and pundits have been super high on Louisville for the 2026-27 season, and Bart Torvik is reflective of that, ranking them as the No. 9 team in men's hoops. They are the second-highest team in the ACC, behind only Duke at No. 1 overall. Michigan, Arizona, Houston and Arkansas round out the top five overall.

In terms of offense and defense, Torvil believes Louisville will head into the season with a very balanced overall squad. They sport an adjusted offensive efficiency of 121.5, which comes in as the 10th-best mark in Division I, and they have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.7, which sits at 11th overall.

Louisville's roster is far from complete, but they have loaded up on talent in the transfer portal up to this point. Torvik tabs the eight-man roster as the 59th-most talented team in D1, with projected effective talent rating of 44.3. This core boasts a ton of overall experience, as the Cardinals come in at 15th with a projected effective experience rating of 2.44.

This computer model isn't the only thing that's high on Louisville right now. Fox Sports recently ranked the Cardinals at No. 5 in their updated Way-Too-Early Top 25, with ESPN and Sports Illustrated placing UofL at 15th in their own recent WTE polls.

Despite losing 11 players from last season's roster, it's not hard to see why many are so high on UofL. They currently sport a six-man transfer portal class that ranks No. 1 in the nation, per 247Sports. This includes Kansas forward/center Flory Bidunga, who is the No. 1 player in the portal by the On3 Industry Ranking.

Oregon point guard Jackson Shelstad (No. 18), Iowa forward Alvaro Folgueiras (No. 54), Arkansas wing Karter Knox (No. 73), Dayton guard De’Shayne Montgomery (No. 127) and USC center Gabe Dynes are also joining the fold. Louisville only brings back guards London Johnson and Adrian Wooley from this past season.

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(Photo of Louie: Mark Konezny - Imagn Images)