Breaking Down Louisville’s ACC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

With less than a week left in the regular season, here are all the possible seeds the Cardinals could receive for the ACC Tournament.
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(Photo of Carlik Jones: Natalie Ledonne via the Atlantic Coast Conference)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - For the second time this season, the Louisville men’s basketball program hits the road in preparation for a game, and immediately has to turn around because of COVID-19. Due to a contract tracing review with Virginia Tech, the Cardinals rematch against the Hokies had to be cancelled by the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The league did not schedule a makeup opponent for Louisville that day, so the Cardinals’ next contest is now their regular season finale at the KFC Yum! Center against the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, Mar. 6.

With an 8-4 record in conference play (13-5 overall), Louisville is currently sitting at a No. 4 seed for next week’s ACC Tournament, which would give them the last of four double byes in the field. Seed is determined by conference win/loss percentage.

However, their senior night matchup with the Hoos is not the only game in the final week of the regular season with ACC Tournament seeding repercussions. Seven of the final nine ACC games will have a direct effect on Louisville’s seed outside of their own contest with Virginia to end the regular season:

Seed and conference record from games through Tuesday, Mar. 2 attached

  • Wednesday, Mar. 3: No. 5 Clemson (9-5) at No. 8 Syracuse (8-7) and No. 13 Boston College (2-9) at No. 1 Florida State (10-3)
  • Friday, Mar. 5: No. 6 Georgia Tech (10-6) at No. 14 Wake Forest (3-14)
  • Saturday, Mar. 6: No. 1 Florida State (10-3) at No. 12 Notre Dame (6-10), No. 11 Pitt (6-9) at No. 5 Clemson (9-5), No. 3 Virginia Tech (9-4) at No. 10 NC State (8-8) and No. 9 Duke (9-8) at No. 7 North Carolina (9-6)

While the Cardinals are in line for a No. 4 seed as of this writing, that is by no means set in stone. Louisville statistician Kelly Dickey broke down every seeding scenario, and determined that the No. 2 through 7 seeds are still in play for the Cardinals. Courtesy of Dickey, below is every seeding scenario, accompanied by the percentage, that it is likely to happen:

No. 2 seed (1%):

  • Boston College beats Florida State, Notre Dame beats Florida State, NC State beats Virginia Tech, Louisville beats Virginia.

No. 3 seed (24%):

  • Florida State beats Boston College, NC State beats Virginia Tech, Louisville beats Virginia.
  • Boston College beats Florida State, Notre Dame beats Florida State, Virginia Tech beats NC State, Louisville beats Virginia.
  • Boston College beats Florida State, Florida State beats Notre Dame, NC State beats Virginia Tech, Louisville beats Virginia.

No. 4 seed (23%):

  • Syracuse beats Clemson, Wake Forest beats Georgia Tech, Pitt beats Clemson, Virginia beats Louisville, Duke beats North Carolina.
  • Florida State beats Boston College, Virginia Tech beats NC State, Louisville beats Virginia.
  • Boston College beats Florida State, Florida State beats Notre Dame, Virginia Tech beats NC State, Louisville beats Virginia.

No. 5 seed (8%):

  • Florida State beats Boston College, Virginia Tech beats NC State, Louisville beats Virginia.
  • Boston College beats Florida State, Florida State beats Notre Dame, Virginia Tech beats NC State, Louisville beats Virginia.
  • Syracuse beats Clemson, Wake Forest beats Georgia Tech, Clemson beats Pitt, Virginia beats Louisville, Duke beats North Carolina.

No. 6 seed (24%):

  • Syracuse beats Clemson, Wake Forest beats Georgia Tech, Clemson beats Pitt, North Carolina beats Duke, Virginia beats Louisville.
  • Syracuse beats Clemson, Georgia beats Wake Forest, Clemson beats Pitt, Duke beats North Carolina, Virginia beats Louisville.
  • Syracuse beats Clemson, Georgia Tech beats Wake Forest, Pitt beats Clemson, North Carolina beats Duke, Virginia beats Louisville.
  • Clemson beats Syracuse, Wake Forest beats Georgia Tech, North Carolina beats Duke, Virginia beats Louisville.
  • Clemson beats Syracuse, Georgia Tech beats Wake Forest, Duke beats North Carolina, Virginia beats Louisville.

No. 7 seed (20%):

  • Syracuse beats Clemson, Georgia Tech beats Wake Forest, Clemson beats Pittsburgh, Virginia beats Louisville, North Carolina beats Duke.
  • Clemson beats Syracuse, Georgia Tech beats Wake Forest, Virginia beats Louisville, North Carolina beats Duke.

In its simplest terms, Louisville has a 48% chance to earn a double bye, and a 52% chance to receive a single bye. They are almost guaranteed to receive a double bye if they defeat Virginia, although there are a couple scenarios in which they would get a No. 5 seed if they did.

Tipoff between Louisville and Virginia on Mar. 6 at the KFC Yum! Center will be at 4:00 p.m. EST on the ESPN2.

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