Louisville's NCAA Tournament Chances Suffer Setback in Loss at FSU

While the Cardinals still have plenty of time to right the ship, there's no denying that their loss to the Seminoles was a big blow to their postseason chances.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Of all the cliches in the sporting world that are out there - and believe me, there are a lot - calling a game a "must win" has to be up there with one of the most overused phrases in all levels of sports.

Do some games mean more than others? Sure they do, for a variety of reasons. But it seems like nowadays, people will seemingly craft any and all storylines to make even the most uninteresting or potentially lopsided a game a "must win" scenario.

But I must admit, Louisville's game Saturday night at Florida State certainly seemed to qualify for said category.

Heading into that game, the Cardinals didn't exactly have the most impressive NCAA Tournament resume. Louisville has a pair of two bad home non-conference losses - against Furman and DePaul - as well as a road loss at Western Kentucky. The only meaningful win in non-con play was their victory over Mississippi State down in the Bahamas, as the rest of their non-con resume consisted of teams like Southern, Detroit Mercy and SE Louisiana.

If there was anything to give Louisville fans hope that their beloved Cardinals would not miss the tournament, again, it was their start in ACC play. Sure, NC State, Georgia Tech and Pitt aren't exactly the cream of the conference crop, and they didn't look particularly impressive against any of them, but Louisville found a way to beat them all. Throw in a win against a solid (?) Wake Forest, and the Cardinals were able to start league play at 4-0.

Cue Florida State.

Yes, they were having struggles of their own, but the Seminoles presented an opportunity for Louisville. As many know by now, the ACC is having an extremely down year. A league which has consistently put in seven or more teams in the Big Dance in recent years could conceivably only produce four this season. In fact, of the six major college basketball conferences - the power five plus the Big East - the ACC ranks fifth according to KenPom, ahead of just the PAC-12.

Because of this, Louisville did not have very many opportunities to bolster their resume moving forward. FSU was one of the few are far between games that they could.

Instead, the Cardinals followed recent trends and fell yet again to the Seminoles to the tune of 79-70 Saturday night. It not only snapped their undefeated streak in league play, but handed them their fifth-straight loss to FSU. Now, Louisville sits at 10-5 overall and 4-1 in ACC play.

Now let's turn back to Louisville's resume and see why this result is such a big hit to their chances at making the postseason. FSU was only the Cardinals' third Quadrant 1 game so far this season. Account for their previous win over the Bulldogs and loss at Michigan State, and Louisville is 1-2 in Quadrant 1.

For those unfamiliar, NCAA tournament resumes are separated into quadrants, with Quadrant 1 being the best and Quadrant 4 being the worst. Quadrants are classified based on the opponent's NET ranking as well as the location of the game. For example, wins against a No. 30 team at home and a No. 75 team on the road are both Quadrant 1 wins.

Obviously, Quadrant 1 wins are what carry the most weight on a resume. But the problem is that, because the ACC is so down, there aren't many opportunities to add them. Using current NET rankings, just four of Louisville's 15 remaining regular season games fall under Quad 1: vs. Duke, at North Carolina, at Virginia Tech and at Wake Forest.

The other 11 game consist of five Quad 2 games, and even six Quad 3 games. To be fair, some of these matchups are teetering the line between Quad 1/2 and 2/3 games, so this could number could fluctuate.

But why does Louisville need these opportunities against Quad 1 teams so badly? It's because their own NET ranking is so bad. Following the loss at Florida State, the Cardinals currently have a NET of 85th. It goes without saying that's not a tournament team.

In order to make the tournament, Louisville will have to aggregate a bunch of wins against teams in which they *should* beat, while capitalizing on a few opportunities against Quad 1 competition. As odd as it sounds to say out loud, it seems that the Cardinals need to strive for at least 15-5 in ACC (barring no postponements) to even consider sniffing an at-large bid.

Fail to do that, and their only shot to crack the tournament might be to win the ACC Tournament. Even that could be a daunting task considering how well Duke is playing, despite their recent loss to Miami.

As I wrote last month, it isn't quite time to hit the panic button just yet. Louisville could very well compile the necessary Quad 2 and 3 wins needed, as well as sneak in a Quad 1 win or two.

But the loss at Florida State was a major hit to Louisville's postseason chances, and the Cardinals' margin for error is now slim to none. Don't press the panic button just yet, but if this season was a Hollywood production, it's time to lift that little plastic shield covering said button just in case.

(Photo of Wyatt Wilkes, Dre Davis: Melina Myers - USA TODAY Sports)

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