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Tale of the Tape, Prediction: Louisville vs. Duke

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:
Tale of the Tape, Prediction: Louisville vs. Duke
Tale of the Tape, Prediction: Louisville vs. Duke

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (11-9, 5-5 ACC) is set to face No. 9 Duke (16-3, 6-2 ACC) on Saturday, Jan. 29 at 12:00 p.m. EST. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:

- Rankings:

DukeLouisville

AP/USA TODAY

9th/7th

NR/NR

NET

13th

114th

RPI

23rd

110th

SOS

69th

84th

KenPom

11th

114th

Sagarin

10th

94th

Torvik

11th

111th

- Team Leaders:

DukeLouisville

Points

Paolo Banchero (17.9)

Noah Locke (10.2)

Rebounds

Paolo Banchero (7.9)

Malik Williams (8.5)

Assists

Wendell Moore Jr. (4.6)

Jarrod West (3.2)

Steals

Trevor Keels (1.9)

Jarrod West (1.5)

Blocks

Mark Williams (3.7)

Malik Williams (0.7)

- Scoring:

DukeLouisville

Points Per Game

82.0

68.5

Field Goal %

49.1%

42.2%

FGM/FGA Per Game

30.1/61.4

24.5/58.0

Three Point %

37.4%

32.0%

3PTM/3PTA

8.4/22.4

7.9/24.7

Free Throw %

73.3%

68.5%

- Rebounding:

DukeLouisville

Rebounds Per Game

38.1

37.8

Off. Reb. Per Game

10.1

9.7

Def. Reb. Per Game

28.0

28.2

Rebound Margin

+2.6

+2.6

- Defense:

DukeLouisville

Opp. Points Per Game

65.8

67.7

Opp. FG%

40.4%

41.4%

Opp, 3PT%

29.6%

32.7%

Steals Per Game

7.6

6.3

Blocks Per Game

5.7

2.3

- Ball Handling:

DukeLouisville

Assists Per Game

18.0

12.7

Turnovers Per Game

10.5

12.6

Turnover Margin

+2.5

-1.0

Assist/Turnover Ratio

1.7

1.0

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 21.9 percent chance to win against Duke.

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 19 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils, with a projected final score of 74-65 in favor of Duke. Per current metrics, Virginia is highest-ranked opponent that Louisville will face all season.

- Personal Prediction: Duke 78, Louisville 69

(Photo of Samuell Williamson, D.J. Steward: Nell Redmond - USA TODAY Sports)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. Also an avid video gamer, a bourbon enthusiast, and fierce dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic