Breaking Down the Chaos Needed for Louisville to Crash the College Football Playoff

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Louisville football program's first year under head coach Jeff Brohm is already a rousing success. The No. 9/10 Cardinals are already 10-1 on the year for just their seventh double-digit win season in program history, have clinched a berth to their first ACC Championship Game, and are almost a shoo-in to reach a New Year's Six bowl.

But what if I told you that making College Football Playoff is still very much on the table?

Sure, Louisville's chances of making the four-team playoff this season are very, very unlikely. In fact, ESPN's Football Power Index gives them just a 0.4 percent to crack the CFP, the lowest of the nine teams with a non-zero chance at making the playoff.

Even when you look at the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, you would think making a last-minute run would be impossible.

But like Lloyd Christmas said: "So you're telling me there's a chance?"

Yes, there is a chance. While Louisville would need a lot of chaos to unfold during the final week of the regular season and in conference championship weekend, there is an avenue for the Cardinals to sneak into the College Football Playoff in its last season under a four-team format.

How much chaos, exactly? Well, I'll break it down here:

First and foremost, Louisville has to win out. They'll have to take down both Kentucky this weekend and snap their four-game losing streak to the Wildcats, then turn around and beat Florida State in the ACC Championship. They would probably need to beat the Wildcats in decisive fashion due to eye test purposes, but I wouldn't say it's a full blown requirement.
Speaking of Florida State, they have to be 12-0 heading into the ACC Championship. The CFP Selection Committee is already starting to view less of the Seminoles because of the season-ending injury to QB Jordan Travis. Should FSU somehow fall at Florida this weekend, a potential Louisville win over the Noles would not be viewed as highly as it would be if they were undefeated.
The winner of the Ohio State-Michigan has to win in a decisive and blowout fashion. There are already some scenarios floating out there that have both these teams in the CFP if it's a close game, so one delivering a beatdown over the other has to happen to ensure this potential scenario doesn't happen. Then of course, whoever wins this game has to then take down Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game, which *should* happen regardless.
Alabama has to lose at least one more game, whether that's at Auburn this weekend or against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. It would also behoove Louisville to see Georgia go undefeated, but it's more important that the Crimson Tide lose than the Bulldogs run the table, since Georgia still has a good chance to get in even if they fall in the SEC Championship Game. There is precendence to put both Georgia and Alabama in if both have just one loss, just look at the 2021 season.
Washington has to beat both Washington State in their regular season finale and Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The key here is that Oregon hasn't officially clinched a spot in the conference title game yet, as there is a slight chance that Arizona can sneak in depending on how things shake out. Ever since Oregon fell to Washington in their head-to-head matchup, the Ducks have been on an absolute tear, and the committee has been favorable towards UO with the eye test. That being said, should Oregon fall to Oregon State this weekend, that would remove them from picture entirely since they would have multiple losses. Hence why it's a bigger deal for Louisville that UW run the table than UO lose once more.
Texas has to lose one more game. While their loss to Oklahoma hasn't done them any favors, the committee likes them because of their resume, and the fact that they have arguably the best win out of the remaining CFP contenders (at Alabama). They host Texas Tech this weekend, but haven't officially wrapped up a berth in the Big 12 Championship. In fact, no one has, as Oklahoma, Kansas State and Oklahoma State are in a three-way tie for second, and there are scenarios in which Texas gets left out of conference championship weekend. So either they have to lose to Texas Tech, or find a way to make it to the Big 12 Championship and lose there.

If all of the previous results come to pass, we would be left with the following College Football Playoff setup:

Georgia
Ohio State/Michigan winner
Washington
Louisville

The order of the three teams in front of Louisville might vary some, but it would be some arrangement of these teams. It's almost impossible for Louisville to get better than the No. 4 spot at this juncture.

As previously mentioned, the path to a College Football Playoff berth is exceedingly unlikely, but not completely undoable. Stranger things have happened before.

Even if Louisville doesn't get a shot to compete for a national championship, the fact that it's a legitimate talking point in year one under Jeff Brohm is a remarkable achievement in and of itself.

(Photo of Louisville Players: Sam Navarro - USA TODAY Sports)

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