Louisville Not Concerned With ACC Championship Game-Clinching Scenarios, Focusing on 'Win and In'
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - In just their first year with head coach Jeff Brohm at the helm, the Louisville football program is on the verge of making program history. At 9-1 overall and 6-1 in conference play, they are the overwhelming favorite to clinch the second berth in the ACC Championship Game. It would be their first appearance in the league's title game since joining the conference in 2014, and their first appearance in a conference title game period.
They very nearly punched a berth this past Saturday despite playing a game two days prior. But with North Carolina taking down Duke, it kept the ACC Championship Game odds for both them and Virginia Tech - as slim as they may be - very much alive. According to the Sagarin ratings, Louisville has a 95.9 percent chance to face Florida State in Charlotte, N.C., with VT coming in at 2.9 percent and 1.2 percent.
Even with just two weeks left in the regular season, there are a lot of different scenarios in which Louisville can officially punch their ticket. While Brohm and the Cardinals are aware of them, they also haven't gotten too wrapped up in them.
"I think probably everybody's looked at the internet, and looked at the scenarios," Brohm said. "When I've tried to look at it, I can't figure it out. I only thing I know is that if we win, good things will happen. So that's what we got to do, we gotta go with the game. To go to Miami and find a way to win on their home field would be a huge accomplishment, if we can get that done, in itself."
Brohm is right in that some of the clinching scenarios are a bit complex. Following the results of this past weekend's game, there are now three ways in which the Cardinals can earn the No. 2 seed, according to University of Louisville statistician and SID assistant Kelly Dickey.
The first two are fairly straightforward while the third is... hairy to say the least. The clinching scenarios are as follows:
- Louisville beats Miami
- North Carolina loses to Clemson or NC State
- Virginia Tech loses to NC State or Virginia AND
- Boston College beats Miami or Georgia Tech beats Syracuse
- - OR -
- Pittsburgh beats Boston College AND NC State beats Virginia Tech AND Duke beats Virginia and Pittsburgh or loses to both.
Now you can understand why Brohm didn't spend too much time breaking down the various clinching scenarios.
While there are avenues in which Louisville can not win this weekend at Miami and still make the conference championship, they still very much control their own destiny. As the first clinching scenario suggests, the Cardinals are very much in "win and in" mode, as a victory over the Canes in their final conference game of the season will officially punch their ticket to Charlotte.
In the preseason, one of the goals that Louisville established was competing for an ACC Championship, but they have also operated with a "one-game season" mentality all year long. With one win all that is separating Louisville between them and attaining one of their goals, this mindset whole-heartedly applies.
"Every game matters in the big picture, so we're concerned about the big picture," Brohm said. "That is finishing with the best record we can, winning conference football games, finding ways to be good opponents on the road. ... There's a lot of challenges on that."
"I just think our team needs to understand and realize that, if you just work hard, continue to improve and take care of business, and find ways to win, then good things happen at the end. I think that's the main focus for us. To be able to beat a really, in my opinion, a good Miami team on their home field would be a great complement for our football team."
Of course, a game like this where a win assures them the right to compete for a conference championship certainly adds a lot of pressure. Add in the fact that Louisville has not been nearly as efficient away from home this season, the Cardinals have never beaten The U in Miami, and that the Canes are one of the most talented teams they will face this season, the pressure to win increases exponentially.
However, another way to look at it is that with what is on the line, it will force Louisville to operate with more focus. Louisville has demonstrated their mental fortitude numerous times this season with how they have finished games, but had Duke beaten UNC to officially clinch a spot in Charlotte for the Cardinals, it would have been easy to perhaps not be as invested in the matchup with the Canes.
Heading into the showdown, Louisville is balancing the pressure surrounding the game with the focus needed to win, and not paying any mind to the various ways in which they can reach the ACC Championship if it doens't involve beating Miami.
"The most important scenario is if we win, then we will definitely help our cause," Brohm said. "I think at this point in the season, you always treat is as, "if you want to advance, you got to win." I just think that's going to be important that we do, and play your best football at the end of the year. We found a way to make really good comeback in the last game when we had a time that we were struggling, so we just got to kind of regroup, pick the pieces up and understand that it's going to take our best performance in order to beat Miami."
(Photo via Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
You can follow Louisville Report for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:
Facebook - @LouisvilleReport
Twitter - @UofLReport
Instagram - @louisville_report
You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter
