Predicting Louisville Football's 2022 Season
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville football is on the verge of making its triumphant return.
The 2022 season, and a crucial year four under head coach Scott Satterfield, will officially kick off in just 35 days when the Cardinals head up north to face Syracuse in a primetime matchup on Saturday, Sept 3. With the season so close to getting underway, Louisville Report decided to give an updated prediction at Louisville's record for the 2022 football season.
Take a look below at our game by game predictions, along with a final season win-loss record:
at Syracuse (Saturday, Sept. 3)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 41-3 on Nov. 13, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Louisville leads 12-7
Summary: Louisville might have blown the doors off of Syracuse last season, but they were actually much better than people credit, mainly due to their defense. The Orange actually wound up with the 16th-ranked total defense in FBS at 330.3 yards per game, and returns key pieces like defensive backs Garrett Williams and Duce Chestnut, and linebacker Mikel Jones
Offensively, Syracuse lagged behind a bit. While they has on of the most prolific rushing offenses in FBS, anchored by Sean Tucker's 1,496 rushing yards, they were the definition of a one note offense. The Orange struggled mightily to pass the pass, pilling up just 158.2 yards per game - the tenth-worst in FBS. Garret Shrader *should* improve, but time will tell by how much.
In theory, this should be a relatively close game with it being played at the not-Carrier Dome. But it's extremely hard to ignore the recent history of this series, and I'm leaning towards that trend continuing. Especially with how Louisville handled that Syracuse rushing attack in 2021
Prediction: Louisville 35, Syracuse 10.
at UCF (Friday, Sept. 9)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 42-35 on Sept. 17, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Louisville leads 2-1
Summary: UCF will looks a little bit different under center than they did when they last faced Louisville, as Dillon Gabriel entered the transfer portal towards the end of the season. The Knights weren't as crisp on offense as they were before Gabriel's injury, but do retain weapons like leading WR Ryan O'Keefe, and RB duo Johnny Richardson and Isaiah Bowser. UCF just has to figure out who they will start at QB between Mikey Keene and Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee.
Defense wasn't UCF's calling card heading into last season, but it was extraordinarily underrated. The Knights allowed just 210.1 passing yards per game, 34th in FBS, and had the sixth-best passing efficiency defense. Their impact DL Big Kat Bryant is gone, but return their top six defensive backs in terms of passes defended - including players like Davonte Brown and Quadric Bullard.
Don't be surprised if this game comes down to the wire like the 2021 meeting did. UCF as a whole is a very underrated team, with a healthy mix of good returning production and impact transfers, and they're playing at the Bounce House this time. Not only that, but it's on a six-day turnaround. Early in the offseason, I picked Louisville to win this one, but now I'm leaning in favor of the Knights.
Prediction: UCF 42, Louisville 38
Florida State (Friday, Sept. 16)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 31-23 on Sept. 25 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla.
Series: Florida State leads 16-6
Summary: Will Florida State finally make meaningful strides forward under year three of Mike Norvell? We'll see. At least the Noles won't be heading into this season with a quarterback controversy, as McKenzie Milton is no longer in the picture and Jordan Travis should be the guy moving forward. Losing RB Jashaun Corbin hurts, but FSU retains RB Treshaun Ward and brings in offensive weapons WR Winston Wright and RB Trey Benson via the portal. The Seminoles should have a fairly decent offense, but heir offensive line is a massive concern.
Florida State does lose ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jermaine Johnson, but the Noles should have a great defense in 2022. They also lose their second-best DL behind Johnson in Keir Thomas, but the unit does retain Robert Cooper and Fabian Lovett, and they did bring in impact transfer Jared Verse. Not to mention that their best defensive back in Jammie Robinson is back.
This will also be an incredibly competitive game, although I don't see it being a barnburner like the UCF contest. I do think the Noles do start to take a step forward this year under Mike Norvell, but with it being a home game, I believe that Louisville has the slight edge. Especially if the Cardinals start 2-0 ahead of their home opener.
Prediction: Louisville 28, Florida State 24.
USF (Saturday, Sept. 24)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 34-3 on Oct. 16, 2013 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.
Series: Louisville leads 6-5
Summary: Putting it mildly, USF was... not good last year. The Bulls' two win last year came against FCS Florida A&M and 3-9 Temple. Most of that was due to their abysmal defense. They gave up 470.6 yards per game - 123rd in FBS - and gave up 40+ points six times. LB Antonio Grier Jr. did well for USF in 2021, logging 92 tackles, two picks and two forced fumbles, but he is the only noteworthy player on that side of the ball.
Offensively, it was only a little better, as USF put just 350.9 yards per game for 102nd in FBS. Part of that was due to QB Timmy McClain's overall inefficiency as a passer - throwing for 1,888 yards with just a 55.3 completion percentage, and five touchdowns to seven picks. What benefits USF is that they return their top six guys in terms of yards from scrimmage, including standout WR Xavier Weaver.
There's no need to beat around the bush here: Louisville should win this game fairly easily. If they can't put up - at a minimum - 35 points in this game, especially with it being at home, something went wrong.
Prediction: Louisville 49, USF 17
at Boston College (Saturday, Oct. 1)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 28-14 on Oct. 23, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Louisville leads 8-6
Summary: Boston College did under perform a bit in 2021, but for one very good reason: QB Phil Jurkovec was hurt almost the entire year. Not only does he return, but so does WR Zay Flowers - one of the most underrated wideouts in the entire nation. Pat Garwo also ran for over 1,000 yards last season. But outside of those three, BC's supporting cast on offense isn't that great. Especially when you consider that their entire starting offensive line is now off to the NFL or out for the season.
Over on defense, the Eagles do lose linebacker Isaiah Graham-Mobley, but still retain most of their top guys on defense. Guys like Kam Arnold, Elijah Jones, Josh DeBerry, and a handful of contributors are returning for another year. There might not be a "star" per se on this defense, but it's still one that allowed just 344.2 yards per game last year for the No. 28 defense in FBS.
This has trap game written all over it. On the road, a rising star at coach in Jeff Hafley, Jurkovec and Flowers returning and an underrated defense. Most metrics don't favor Boston College, but this could be a sleeper team in the ACC. I'm picking Louisville to squeeze by, but not by much.
Prediction: Louisville 31, Boston College 28
at Virginia (Saturday, Oct. 8)
Last Meeting: Virginia won 34-33 on Oct. 9, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Tied 5-5
Summary: We don't need to rehash a bunch of details from last year's matchup, Louisville fans are already keenly aware of what happened. All you really need to know is that QB Brennan Armstrong - who was second in the nation in passing yards at 404.5 per game - is back. So are WRs Dontayvion Wicks, Keytaon Thompson and Billy Kemp IV, who combined for 2,918 receiving yards as part of the nation's No. 3 offense at 515.8 yards per game. Their main concern on offense, like Boston College, is the amount of offensive line turnover.
As good as Virginia is on offense, they are equally as bad on defense. The Cavaliers has the 121st-ranked defense in FBS at 466.0 yards allowed per game, gave up 30+ points six times, including 66 to BYU and 59 to UNC. They do bring back the ACC's leading tackler (117) in Nick Jackson, but this defense overall is horrendous.
With the amount of talent that both sides boast when it comes to offense, this will come down to who makes more stops defensively - if that will even happen at all in this game. As it stands, Louisville has way more defensive playmakers than Virginia does, but they will be tested mightily.
Prediction: Louisville 45, Virginia 42.
Pitt (Saturday, Oct. 22)
Last Meeting: Pitt won 23-20 on Sept. 26, 2020 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pa.
Series: Pitt leads 10-8
Summary: Pitt might have lost first round pick QB Kenny Pickett and Biletnikoff Award winner WR Jordan Addison, but don't expect the Panthers to have a massive offensive drop-off. Kedon Slovis is coming over from USC to take over as the starter, and carries a completion rate of 68.4 percent over his career as a Trojan. Plus they do bring back their second-leading WR in Jared Wayne, their top three RBs in Israel Abanikanda, Vincent Davis and Rodney Hammond Jr., and a handful of underrated contributors on the offensive line.
And we haven't even gotten to the defense yet. It was "down" by Pat Narduzzi standards, as it was 39th in total defense at 353.6 yards per game, but it was still one of the top defenses in the ACC. They did lose several players at linebacker, but still have an elite front seven, anchored by Calijah Kancey, Habakkuk Baldonado and SirVocea Dennis. Plus, Brandon Hill and Erick Hallett are arguably one of the best safety duos in the ACC.
Pitt returns a lot of talent from their 2021 ACC Championship squad. The man under center and his go-to weapon might be gone, but that's almost negligible with the amount of players returning, and those Pitt brought in. Not only do they have a very good chance to repeat as conference champs, they could be a College Football Playoff dark horse. Louisville does get a week off to prepare for this one, but it will still be a tall task.
Prediction: Pitt 42, Louisville 31
Wake Forest (Saturday, Oct. 29)
Last Meeting: Wake Forest won 37-34 on Oct. 2, 2021 at Truist Field in Winston-Salem, N.C
Series: Louisville leads 6-3
Summary: Wake Forest is losing key weapons like WR Jaquarii Roberson and RB Christian Beal-Smith from their 11-win team, but the Deacs are far from devoid of talent on offense. QB Sam Hartman is returning after a Second Team All-ACC caliber year, and two of his three top WRs in A.T. Perry and Taylor Morin are joining him, as the second and third string RBs Justice Ellison and Christian Turner. This should be one of the more dynamic offense is the ACC next season.
On defense, the Demon Deacons aren't quite as formidable. They had the 11th-best offense in FBS, but coupled that with the 91st-ranked defense. Not to mention several impact guys like Luke Masterson, Luiji Vilain, Traveon Redd and others are moving on. This could be a unit that either holds serve or steps back next season, depending on how first-year defensive coordinator Brad Lambert does.
Wake Forest's offense has potential to be even more dangerous that last season. The only problem is their defense might not catch up to an already low bar. This is a game that Louisville will want revenge for after last season's matchup, and with it being at Cardinal Stadium, I lean slightly towards Louisville.
Prediction: Louisville 38, Wake Forest 35.
James Madison (Saturday, Nov. 5)
Last Meeting: First Meeting
Series: First Meeting
Summary: This game might not be the automatic pushover that many assume it will be. Many might not know it, but the Dukes are making the leap from the FCS level to FBS as members of the Sun Belt Conference. Believe it or not, statistical models give James Madison a better shot at beating Louisville than USF does.
Led by Cole Johnson - who posted a stat line of 68.0 percent completion for 3,779 yards, 41 touchdowns and four interceptions - JMU sported a prolific passing attack in 2021, anchored by two 1,000-yard receivers. Not to mention that the Dukes had the eighth-best defense in FCS at 275.2 yards per game.
Again, this is a game that Louisville should win relatively easily. But don't be shocked if it's a tight ball game at halftime.
Prediction: Louisville 42, James Madison 17
at Clemson (Saturday, Nov. 12)
Last Meeting: Clemson won 30-24 on Nov. 6, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Clemson leads 7-0
Summary: There's now way that Clemson has a repeat offensive performance in 2022, right? D.J. Uiagalelei is back, but he woefully underperformed in 2021, and the Tigers' overall offense took a nose dive and finished squarely at No. 100 in the country. RB duo Will Shipley and Kobe Pace return, so that should help take pressure off of D.J. - if he's even the starter. Five-star recruit Cade Klubnik could easily win the job.
Defensively, Clemson is still Clemson. They are going to boast a staunch defensive front seven with Myles Murphy, Trenton Simpson, Xavier Thomas and Bryan Breese all coming back. Their two star corners Mario Goodrich and Andrew Booth are heading to the league, but the Tigers have plenty of five star talent to step in their place.
Last year was Louisville's best shot to take down Clemson since Lamar Jackson's Heisman year. I don't see the Tigers having their offensive struggles like they did last year, and with this series heading to Death Valley, I don't see this game being at all in Louisville's favor.
Prediction: Clemson 35, Louisville 24
NC State (Saturday, Nov. 19)
Last Meeting: NC State won 28-13 on Oct. 30, 2021 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, N.C.
Series: Louisville leads 7-4
Summary: NC State has one of the best quarterbacks in the nation that almost nobody talks about. With how good the QB play in the ACC was last year, Devin Leary pretty much flew under the radar, and he was one of the more efficient signal callers in the nation. The only real issue is that their top three players by yards from scrimmage, WR Emeka Emezie and RBs Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person, all departed.
But as Louisville found out last season, the Wolfpack defense is a real problem, and they return a lot of key pieces from the ACC's No. 3 defense. ILB Drake Thomas, S Tanner Wilson and DL Corey Durden - who were all named First Team All-ACC - are back. So is ILB Payton Wilson, who was on the fast track to being the ACC Player of the Year before getting hurt. Shyhiem Battle is also one of the better corners in the ACC.
This is very likely a game that will come down to a handful of plays in crunch time. Louisville had NC State on the ropes heading into the fourth quarter last year before it got away from them, and it will be another competitive game this time around. That being said, I give the slight edge to Louisville due to home field advantage.
Prediction: Louisville 28, NC State 27.
at Kentucky (Saturday, Nov. 26)
Last Meeting: Kentucky won 52-21 on Nov. 27, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Kentucky leads 18-15
Summary: We all saw what happened last year. Fortunately for Louisville, guys like star WR Wan'Dale Robinson and All-American OT Darian Kinnard are moving on to the NFL. But, their second-leading wideout in Josh Ali is coming back for a sixth year, and VT's leading pass catcher Tayvon Robinson is joining the fold. Add in the fact that Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez are also returning (well, the latter is yet to be completely determined), and UK should have another well above average offensive year.
But the name of Kentucky's game last year was their defense, holding teams to just 340.1 yards per for the 26th-ranked total defense in the country. Playmakers like Josh Paschal and Yusef Corker are gone, but their linebacking core should still be top tier with the retention of Jacquez Jones, DeAndre Square and Jordan Wright.
I absolutely think that Louisville will have narrowed the gap on Kentucky when they meet again next year. Is it enough to close it entirely and surpass the Cats? Honestly, probably not. Being played on the road doesn't help either.
Prediction: Kentucky 31, Louisville 24.
Season Prediction: 8-4 (6-2 ACC)
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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