Tale of the Tape & Prediction: Louisville vs. Florida State

MatthewMcGavic

Louisville (1-4, 0-4 ACC) returns home to face Florida State (2-3, 1-3 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 24 at 12:00 p.m. EST. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:

- Rankings:

Florida State
Louisville

Associated Press Top 25

NR

NR

USA TODAY Coaches Poll

NR

NR

SOS

12th

23rd

SP+

64th

45th

FPI

68th

50th

- Offensive Statistics:

Florida State
Louisville

Total Offense

45th (401.0)

52nd (386.0)

Passing Yards

49th (217.6)

44th (224.6)

Yards Per Completion

42nd (12.09)

37th (12.48)

Rushing Yards

30th (183.4)

43rd (161.4)

First Downs Gained

15th (109)

28th (99)

3rd Down Con. %

55th (38.4%)

52nd (38.8%)

4th Down Con. %

26th (63.6%)

28th (61.5%)

Red Zone Con. %

54th (78.9%)

15th (93.8%)

Turnovers Lost

64th (9)

72nd (11)

Interceptions Thrown

71st (7)

59th (5)

Fumbles Lost

25th (2)

74th (6)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

49th (7.00)

75th (9.60)

Sacks Allowed

65th (3.20)

60th (2.80)

Avg. Time of Possession

37th (30:20)

29th (31:08)

Key: National Rank out of 77 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- Defensive Statistics:

Florida State
Louisville

Total Defense

66th (474.8)

32nd (379.4)

Passing Yards Allowed

59th (282.6)

24th (207.6)

Rushing Yards Allowed

59th (192.2)

49th (171.8)

3rd Down Defensive %

43rd (42.6%)

60th (46.5%)

4th Down Defensive %

16th (40.0%)

19th (42.9%)

First Downs Allowed

71st (128)

48th (94)

Red Zone Defensive %

28th (81.0%)

23rd (80.0%)

Turnovers Gained

28th (7)

60th (3)

Interceptions Caught

28th (4)

65th (1)

Fumbles Recovered

20th (3)

37th (2)

Sacks Per Game

59th (1.40)

38th (2.4)

TFL Per Game

59th (5.0)

24th (7.2)

Defensive Touchdowns

11th (1)

N/A

Key: National Rank out of 77 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- Special Teams Statistics:

Florida State
Louisville

Net Punting

16th (41.29)

64th (35.05)

Avg. Kickoff Return

25th (22.58)

46th (19.36)

Avg. Punt Return

43rd (7.00)

26th (10.00)

Blocked Kicks

1st (3)

13th (1)

Blocked Kicks Allowed

1st (0)

44th (1)

Blocked Punts

2nd (2)

N/A

Blocked Punts Allowed

1st (0)

62nd (1)

Field Goal Percentage

6-10

4-5

PAT Percentage

13-14

15-15

Key: National Rank out of 77 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 68.9% chance to win against Florida State. Louisville has an FPI rank of 4.3 (50th overall) and Florida State's FPI of -0.2 is the second-lowest out of the Cardinals' remaining 2020 opponents (Syracuse: -9.0).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2020-10-22 at 10.51.58 AM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 64.45% chance to take down the Seminoles. According to SP+ ratings, Louisville is favored in four of the remaining six games of the season.

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 31, Florida State 28.

(Photo of Dorian Etheridge: Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY Sports)

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