Tale of the Tape & Prediction: Louisville vs. Florida State
Louisville (1-4, 0-4 ACC) returns home to face Florida State (2-3, 1-3 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 24 at 12:00 p.m. EST. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:
- Rankings:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Associated Press Top 25 | NR | NR |
USA TODAY Coaches Poll | NR | NR |
SOS | 12th | 23rd |
SP+ | 64th | 45th |
FPI | 68th | 50th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 45th (401.0) | 52nd (386.0) |
Passing Yards | 49th (217.6) | 44th (224.6) |
Yards Per Completion | 42nd (12.09) | 37th (12.48) |
Rushing Yards | 30th (183.4) | 43rd (161.4) |
First Downs Gained | 15th (109) | 28th (99) |
3rd Down Con. % | 55th (38.4%) | 52nd (38.8%) |
4th Down Con. % | 26th (63.6%) | 28th (61.5%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 54th (78.9%) | 15th (93.8%) |
Turnovers Lost | 64th (9) | 72nd (11) |
Interceptions Thrown | 71st (7) | 59th (5) |
Fumbles Lost | 25th (2) | 74th (6) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 49th (7.00) | 75th (9.60) |
Sacks Allowed | 65th (3.20) | 60th (2.80) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 37th (30:20) | 29th (31:08) |
Key: National Rank out of 77 Active FBS Teams (Value).
- Defensive Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 66th (474.8) | 32nd (379.4) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 59th (282.6) | 24th (207.6) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 59th (192.2) | 49th (171.8) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 43rd (42.6%) | 60th (46.5%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 16th (40.0%) | 19th (42.9%) |
First Downs Allowed | 71st (128) | 48th (94) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 28th (81.0%) | 23rd (80.0%) |
Turnovers Gained | 28th (7) | 60th (3) |
Interceptions Caught | 28th (4) | 65th (1) |
Fumbles Recovered | 20th (3) | 37th (2) |
Sacks Per Game | 59th (1.40) | 38th (2.4) |
TFL Per Game | 59th (5.0) | 24th (7.2) |
Defensive Touchdowns | 11th (1) | N/A |
Key: National Rank out of 77 Active FBS Teams (Value).
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 16th (41.29) | 64th (35.05) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 25th (22.58) | 46th (19.36) |
Avg. Punt Return | 43rd (7.00) | 26th (10.00) |
Blocked Kicks | 1st (3) | 13th (1) |
Blocked Kicks Allowed | 1st (0) | 44th (1) |
Blocked Punts | 2nd (2) | N/A |
Blocked Punts Allowed | 1st (0) | 62nd (1) |
Field Goal Percentage | 6-10 | 4-5 |
PAT Percentage | 13-14 | 15-15 |
Key: National Rank out of 77 Active FBS Teams (Value).
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 68.9% chance to win against Florida State. Louisville has an FPI rank of 4.3 (50th overall) and Florida State's FPI of -0.2 is the second-lowest out of the Cardinals' remaining 2020 opponents (Syracuse: -9.0).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 64.45% chance to take down the Seminoles. According to SP+ ratings, Louisville is favored in four of the remaining six games of the season.
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 31, Florida State 28.
(Photo of Dorian Etheridge: Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY Sports)
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