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Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-5, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (8-3, 5-3 SEC) on Saturday, Nov. 27 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

- Rankings:

KentuckyLouisville

AP/USA TODAY

RV/25th

NR/NR

SOS

67th

23rd

SP+

35th

31st

FPI

37th

33rd

Sagarin

33rd

39th

- Offensive Statistics:

KentuckyLouisville

Total Offense

51st (423.8)

17th (459.1)

Scoring Offense

45th (31.6)

34th (32.9)

Passing Yards

68th (231.9)

60th (241.6)

Yards Per Completion

74th (12.15)

15th (14.06)

Rushing Yards

39th (191.9)

16th (217.5)

First Downs Gained

46th (244)

67th (233)

3rd Down Con. %

6th (50.4%)

68th (39.5%)

4th Down Con. %

112th (38.5%)

60th (54.5%)

Red Zone Con. %

79th (82.2%)

22nd (89.7%)

Turnovers Lost

126th (22)

39th (12)

Interceptions Thrown

101st (12)

16th (5)

Fumbles Lost

118th (10)

85th (7)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

16th (3.82)

35th (4.64)

Sacks Allowed

34th (1.64)

30th (1.55)

Avg. Time of Possession

19th (31:54)

28th (31:28)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

KentuckyLouisville

Total Defense

28th (334.8)

77th (391.8

Scoring Defense

38th (22.2)

54th (24.7)

Passing Yards Allowed

53rd (220.3)

101st (253.8)

Rushing Yards Allowed

18th (114.5)

48th (138.0)

3rd Down Defensive %

74th (39.3%)

27th (34.4%)

4th Down Defensive %

7th (33.3%)

55th (47.6%)

First Downs Allowed

33rd (201)

89th (242)

Red Zone Defensive %

116th (90.6%)

102nd (87.8%)

Turnovers Gained

120th (9)

75th (14)

Interceptions Caught

100th (6)

44th (10)

Fumbles Recovered

111th (3)

97th (4)

Sacks Per Game

45th (2.55)

29th (2.73)

TFL Per Game

33rd (6.4)

33rd (6.4)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

KentuckyLouisville

Net Punting

36th (41.00)

64th (39.16)

Avg. Kickoff Return

113th (17.00)

52nd (21.58)

Avg. Kickoff Return Def.

73rd (21.22)

80th (21.83)

Avg. Punt Return

32nd (10.67)

21st (11.77)

Avg. Punt Return Def.

39th (5.88)

38th (5.64)

Field Goal Attempts

7-10

14-20

PAT

45-47

43-45

Read More

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 60.5 percent chance to win against the Wildcats. Louisville has an FPI of 7.5 (33rd overall), whereas Kentucky has a rating of 6.9 (37th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2021-11-25 at 11.04.55 AM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 56.08 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.0 (31st overall), whereas Kentucky has a rating of 10.9 (35th overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

  • Preseason: 6.97
  • Post-Week 1: 4.63
  • Post-Week 2: 5.71
  • Post-Week 3: 6.49
  • Post-Week 4: 6.14
  • Post-Week 5: 6.19
  • Post-Week 6: 5.47
  • Post-Week 7: 5.74
  • Post-Week 8: 6.56
  • Post-Week 9: 6.20
  • Post-Week 10: 5.93
  • Post-Week 11: 6.40
  • Post-Week 12: 6.56

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Kentucky 27.

(Photo of Louie, Kyle Bolin, Eli Rogers: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

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