Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-5, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (8-3, 5-3 SEC) on Saturday, Nov. 27 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:
- Rankings:
| Kentucky | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | RV/25th | NR/NR |
SOS | 67th | 23rd |
SP+ | 35th | 31st |
FPI | 37th | 33rd |
Sagarin | 33rd | 39th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Kentucky | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 51st (423.8) | 17th (459.1) |
Scoring Offense | 45th (31.6) | 34th (32.9) |
Passing Yards | 68th (231.9) | 60th (241.6) |
Yards Per Completion | 74th (12.15) | 15th (14.06) |
Rushing Yards | 39th (191.9) | 16th (217.5) |
First Downs Gained | 46th (244) | 67th (233) |
3rd Down Con. % | 6th (50.4%) | 68th (39.5%) |
4th Down Con. % | 112th (38.5%) | 60th (54.5%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 79th (82.2%) | 22nd (89.7%) |
Turnovers Lost | 126th (22) | 39th (12) |
Interceptions Thrown | 101st (12) | 16th (5) |
Fumbles Lost | 118th (10) | 85th (7) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 16th (3.82) | 35th (4.64) |
Sacks Allowed | 34th (1.64) | 30th (1.55) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 19th (31:54) | 28th (31:28) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Kentucky | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 28th (334.8) | 77th (391.8 |
Scoring Defense | 38th (22.2) | 54th (24.7) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 53rd (220.3) | 101st (253.8) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 18th (114.5) | 48th (138.0) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 74th (39.3%) | 27th (34.4%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 7th (33.3%) | 55th (47.6%) |
First Downs Allowed | 33rd (201) | 89th (242) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 116th (90.6%) | 102nd (87.8%) |
Turnovers Gained | 120th (9) | 75th (14) |
Interceptions Caught | 100th (6) | 44th (10) |
Fumbles Recovered | 111th (3) | 97th (4) |
Sacks Per Game | 45th (2.55) | 29th (2.73) |
TFL Per Game | 33rd (6.4) | 33rd (6.4) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Kentucky | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 36th (41.00) | 64th (39.16) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 113th (17.00) | 52nd (21.58) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 73rd (21.22) | 80th (21.83) |
Avg. Punt Return | 32nd (10.67) | 21st (11.77) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 39th (5.88) | 38th (5.64) |
Field Goal Attempts | 7-10 | 14-20 |
PAT | 45-47 | 43-45 |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 60.5 percent chance to win against the Wildcats. Louisville has an FPI of 7.5 (33rd overall), whereas Kentucky has a rating of 6.9 (37th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 56.08 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.0 (31st overall), whereas Kentucky has a rating of 10.9 (35th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.97
- Post-Week 1: 4.63
- Post-Week 2: 5.71
- Post-Week 3: 6.49
- Post-Week 4: 6.14
- Post-Week 5: 6.19
- Post-Week 6: 5.47
- Post-Week 7: 5.74
- Post-Week 8: 6.56
- Post-Week 9: 6.20
- Post-Week 10: 5.93
- Post-Week 11: 6.40
- Post-Week 12: 6.56
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Kentucky 27.
(Photo of Louie, Kyle Bolin, Eli Rogers: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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