Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Air Force
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-6, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Air Force (9-3, 6-1 MW) in the First Responder Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 28 at 3:15 p.m. EST at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Tex. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Falcons:
- Rankings:
| Air Force | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | NR/NR | NR/NR |
SOS | 108th | 20th |
SP+ | 53rd | 48th |
FPI | 65th | 45th |
Sagarin | 42nd | 49th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Air Force | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 51st (423.3) | 20th (450.2) |
Scoring Offense | 47th (31.0) | 40th (31.9) |
Passing Yards | 129th (82.5) | 62nd (238.8) |
Yards Per Completion | 1st (21.52) | 21st (13.78) |
Rushing Yards | 1st (340.8) | 20th (211.3) |
First Downs Gained | 53rd (264) | 68th (254) |
3rd Down Con. % | 30th (44.0%) | 74th (38.9%) |
4th Down Con. % | 3rd (77.5%) | 68th (50.0%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 83rd (81.8%) | 17th (90.5%) |
Turnovers Lost | 6th (9) | 33rd (13) |
Interceptions Thrown | 7th (4) | 18th (6) |
Fumbles Lost | 26th (5) | 66th (7) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 4th (3.33) | 34th (4.75) |
Sacks Allowed | 2nd (0.75) | 24th (1.50) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 1st (36:41) | 34th (30:55) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Air Force | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 5th (288.0) | 84th (401.8) |
Scoring Defense | 13th (19.1) | 77th (27.0) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 20th (193.3) | 94th (245.1) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 7th (94.7) | 75th (156.7) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 72nd (39.0%) | 37th (36.0%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 14th (36.4%) | 55th (50.0%) |
First Downs Allowed | 2nd (178) | 98th (271) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 36th (78.1%) | 107th (89.1%) |
Turnovers Gained | 75th (15) | 88th (14) |
Interceptions Caught | 88th (8) | 54th (10) |
Fumbles Recovered | 50th (7) | 104th (4) |
Sacks Per Game | 25th (2.92) | 49th (2.50) |
TFL Per Game | 71st (5.5) | 38th (6.4) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Air Force | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 68th (39.03) | 71st (38.90) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 129th (12.80) | 49th (22.04) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 61st (20.67) | 75th (21.50) |
Avg. Punt Return | 82nd (7.20) | 18th (11.77) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 6th (2.43) | 37th (5.58) |
Field Goal Attempts | 10-15 | 14-21 |
PAT | 44-45 | 46-48 |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 60.4 percent chance to win against the Falcons. Louisville has an FPI of 5.2 (45th overall), whereas Air Force has a rating of 0.5 (65th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 57.7 percent chance to take down the Falcons. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 8.4 (48th overall), whereas Air Force has a rating of 7.7 (35th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.97
- Post-Week 1: 4.63
- Post-Week 2: 5.71
- Post-Week 3: 6.49
- Post-Week 4: 6.14
- Post-Week 5: 6.19
- Post-Week 6: 5.47
- Post-Week 7: 5.74
- Post-Week 8: 6.56
- Post-Week 9: 6.20
- Post-Week 10: 5.93
- Post-Week 11: 6.40
- Post-Week 12: 6.56
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Air Force 24.
(Photo of Yasir Abdullah: Sam Upshaw Jr. - Courier Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC)
You can follow Louisville Report for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:
Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisville_report
You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter
