Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. UCF

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Knights for their Friday night matchup, and who the statistical models favor.
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LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (1-1, 0-0 ACC) is set to host UCF (2-0, 0-0 American) on Friday, Sept. 17 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Knights:

- Rankings:

UCFLouisville

Associated Press Top 25

RV

NR

USA TODAY Coaches Poll

RV

NR

SOS

35th

91st

SP+

25th

58th

FPI

35th

71st

- Offensive Statistics:

UCFLouisville

Total Offense

2nd (622.0)

65th (398.0)

Passing Yards

10th (349.5)

59th (241.5)

Yards Per Completion

41st (13.19)

64th (12.38)

Rushing Yards

11th (272.5)

74th (156.5)

First Downs Gained

4th (66)

80th (40)

3rd Down Con. %

11th (57.1%)

94th (34.5%)

4th Down Con. %

32nd (80.0%)

49th (71.4%)

Red Zone Con. %

84th (81.8%)

55th (87.5%)

Turnovers Lost

33rd (2)

73rd (3)

Interceptions Thrown

69th (2)

34th (1)

Fumbles Lost

T-1st (0)

94th (2)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

23rd (4.00)

49th (5.00)

Sacks Allowed

64th (2.00)

40th (1.50)

Avg. Time of Possession

27th (32:56)

19th (33:43)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

UCFLouisville

Total Defense

28th (281.0)

93rd (402.0)

Passing Yards Allowed

100th (259.0)

101st (265.0)

Rushing Yards Allowed

2nd (22.0)

70th (137.0)

3rd Down Defensive %

74th (37.9%)

23rd (28.6%)

4th Down Defensive %

86th (66.7%)

110th (100%)

First Downs Allowed

54th (36)

96th (45)

Red Zone Defensive %

89th (100%)

76th (87.5%)

Turnovers Gained

55th (3)

55th (3)

Interceptions Caught

41st (2)

41st (2)

Fumbles Recovered

42nd (1)

42nd (1)

Sacks Per Game

N/A

86th (1.50)

TFL Per Game

65th (6.0)

99th (4.5)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

UCFLouisville

Net Punting

73rd (38.57)

63rd (39.67)

Avg. Kickoff Return

52nd (21.50)

47th (22.00)

Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense

27th (14.83)

98th (23.50)

Avg. Punt Return

55th (7.71)

17th (16.67)

Avg. Punt Ret. Defense

13th (0.00)

57th (2.67)

Blocked Kicks

N/A

N/A

Blocked Kicks Allowed

1st (0)

1st (0)

Blocked Punts

N/A

N/A

Blocked Punts Allowed

1st (0)

1st (0)

Field Goal Attempts

0-0

2-2

PAT

13-13

6-7

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 39.5 percent chance to win against the Knights. Louisville has an FPI of -0.4 (71st overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 6.3 (35th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2021-09-15 at 2.19.45 PM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 35.77 percent chance to take down the Knights. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.3 (58th overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 13.0 (25th overall. Following the win over Ole Miss, Louisville is favored in four three remaining games on the schedule (Boston College, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky).

- Personal Prediction: UCF 35, Louisville 20.

(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Brett Davis - USA TODAY Sports)

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