Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. UCF
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (1-1, 0-0 ACC) is set to host UCF (2-0, 0-0 American) on Friday, Sept. 17 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Knights:
- Rankings:
UCF | Louisville | |
---|---|---|
Associated Press Top 25 | RV | NR |
USA TODAY Coaches Poll | RV | NR |
SOS | 35th | 91st |
SP+ | 25th | 58th |
FPI | 35th | 71st |
- Offensive Statistics:
UCF | Louisville | |
---|---|---|
Total Offense | 2nd (622.0) | 65th (398.0) |
Passing Yards | 10th (349.5) | 59th (241.5) |
Yards Per Completion | 41st (13.19) | 64th (12.38) |
Rushing Yards | 11th (272.5) | 74th (156.5) |
First Downs Gained | 4th (66) | 80th (40) |
3rd Down Con. % | 11th (57.1%) | 94th (34.5%) |
4th Down Con. % | 32nd (80.0%) | 49th (71.4%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 84th (81.8%) | 55th (87.5%) |
Turnovers Lost | 33rd (2) | 73rd (3) |
Interceptions Thrown | 69th (2) | 34th (1) |
Fumbles Lost | T-1st (0) | 94th (2) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 23rd (4.00) | 49th (5.00) |
Sacks Allowed | 64th (2.00) | 40th (1.50) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 27th (32:56) | 19th (33:43) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
UCF | Louisville | |
---|---|---|
Total Defense | 28th (281.0) | 93rd (402.0) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 100th (259.0) | 101st (265.0) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 2nd (22.0) | 70th (137.0) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 74th (37.9%) | 23rd (28.6%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 86th (66.7%) | 110th (100%) |
First Downs Allowed | 54th (36) | 96th (45) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 89th (100%) | 76th (87.5%) |
Turnovers Gained | 55th (3) | 55th (3) |
Interceptions Caught | 41st (2) | 41st (2) |
Fumbles Recovered | 42nd (1) | 42nd (1) |
Sacks Per Game | N/A | 86th (1.50) |
TFL Per Game | 65th (6.0) | 99th (4.5) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
UCF | Louisville | |
---|---|---|
Net Punting | 73rd (38.57) | 63rd (39.67) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 52nd (21.50) | 47th (22.00) |
Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense | 27th (14.83) | 98th (23.50) |
Avg. Punt Return | 55th (7.71) | 17th (16.67) |
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense | 13th (0.00) | 57th (2.67) |
Blocked Kicks | N/A | N/A |
Blocked Kicks Allowed | 1st (0) | 1st (0) |
Blocked Punts | N/A | N/A |
Blocked Punts Allowed | 1st (0) | 1st (0) |
Field Goal Attempts | 0-0 | 2-2 |
PAT | 13-13 | 6-7 |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 39.5 percent chance to win against the Knights. Louisville has an FPI of -0.4 (71st overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 6.3 (35th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 35.77 percent chance to take down the Knights. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.3 (58th overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 13.0 (25th overall. Following the win over Ole Miss, Louisville is favored in four three remaining games on the schedule (Boston College, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky).
- Personal Prediction: UCF 35, Louisville 20.
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Brett Davis - USA TODAY Sports)
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