Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Florida State
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-1, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Florida State (0-3, 0-0 ACC) on Saturday, Sept. 25 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:
- Rankings:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Associated Press Top 25 | NR | RV |
USA TODAY Coaches Poll | NR | NR |
SOS | 4th | 64th |
SP+ | 69th | 57th |
FPI | 82nd | 64th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 88th (364.7) | 48th (432.3) |
Passing Yards | 107th (179.0) | 45th (264.3) |
Yards Per Completion | 93rd (11.19) | 55th (12.59) |
Rushing Yards | 44th (185.7) | 63rd (168.0) |
First Downs Gained | 91st (57) | 60th (64) |
3rd Down Con. % | 96th (36.1%) | 93rd (36.4%) |
4th Down Con. % | 112th (20.0%) | 55th (60.0%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 126th (60.0%) | 36th (91.7%) |
Turnovers Lost | 129th (10) | 61st (4) |
Interceptions Thrown | 129th (7) | 46th (2) |
Fumbles Lost | 100th (3) | 62nd (2) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 109th (7.67) | 37th (4.67) |
Sacks Allowed | 108th (3.00) | 25th (1.33) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 124th (25:45) | 17th (33:18) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 100th (421.7) | 93rd (406.7) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 116th (289.0) | 94th (244.7) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 66th (132.7) | 86th (162.0) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 91st (42.3%) | 9th (25.8%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 83rd (60.0%) | 117th (100%) |
First Downs Allowed | 92nd (65) | 95th (67) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 49th (77.8%) | 97th (91.7%) |
Turnovers Gained | 66th (4) | 66th (4) |
Interceptions Caught | 63rd (2) | 39th (3) |
Fumbles Recovered | 38th (2) | 73rd (1) |
Sacks Per Game | 10th (4.00) | 84th (1.67) |
TFL Per Game | 19th (8.00) | 89th (5.0) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 41st (41.29) | 73rd (39.29) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 45th (22.25) | 54th (21.33) |
Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense | 109th (25.00) | 13th (11.00) |
Avg. Punt Return | 67th (7.25) | 15th (16.67) |
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense | 83rd (8.00) | 46th (3.25) |
Field Goal Attempts | 2-3 | 2-2 |
PAT | 7-7 | 12-13 |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 53.4 percent chance to win against the Seminoles. Louisville has an FPI of 1.4 (64th overall), whereas FSU has a rating of -2.5 (82nd overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 50.00 percent chance to take down the Seminoles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.1 (57th overall), whereas FSU has a rating of 2.6 (69th overall. Following the win over UCF, Louisville is favored in five of their nine remaining games on the schedule (Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.97
- Post-Week 1: 4.63
- Post-Week 2: 5.71
- Post-Week 3: 6.49
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 42, Florida State 24.
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Melina Myers - USA TODAY Sports)
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