Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Florida State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor.
Author:
Publish date:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-1, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Florida State (0-3, 0-0 ACC) on Saturday, Sept. 25 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:

- Rankings:

Florida StateLouisville

Associated Press Top 25

NR

RV

USA TODAY Coaches Poll

NR

NR

SOS

4th

64th

SP+

69th

57th

FPI

82nd

64th

- Offensive Statistics:

Florida StateLouisville

Total Offense

88th (364.7)

48th (432.3)

Passing Yards

107th (179.0)

45th (264.3)

Yards Per Completion

93rd (11.19)

55th (12.59)

Rushing Yards

44th (185.7)

63rd (168.0)

First Downs Gained

91st (57)

60th (64)

3rd Down Con. %

96th (36.1%)

93rd (36.4%)

4th Down Con. %

112th (20.0%)

55th (60.0%)

Red Zone Con. %

126th (60.0%)

36th (91.7%)

Turnovers Lost

129th (10)

61st (4)

Interceptions Thrown

129th (7)

46th (2)

Fumbles Lost

100th (3)

62nd (2)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

109th (7.67)

37th (4.67)

Sacks Allowed

108th (3.00)

25th (1.33)

Avg. Time of Possession

124th (25:45)

17th (33:18)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

Florida StateLouisville

Total Defense

100th (421.7)

93rd (406.7)

Passing Yards Allowed

116th (289.0)

94th (244.7)

Rushing Yards Allowed

66th (132.7)

86th (162.0)

3rd Down Defensive %

91st (42.3%)

9th (25.8%)

4th Down Defensive %

83rd (60.0%)

117th (100%)

First Downs Allowed

92nd (65)

95th (67)

Red Zone Defensive %

49th (77.8%)

97th (91.7%)

Turnovers Gained

66th (4)

66th (4)

Interceptions Caught

63rd (2)

39th (3)

Fumbles Recovered

38th (2)

73rd (1)

Sacks Per Game

10th (4.00)

84th (1.67)

TFL Per Game

19th (8.00)

89th (5.0)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

Florida StateLouisville

Net Punting

41st (41.29)

73rd (39.29)

Avg. Kickoff Return

45th (22.25)

54th (21.33)

Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense

109th (25.00)

13th (11.00)

Avg. Punt Return

67th (7.25)

15th (16.67)

Avg. Punt Ret. Defense

83rd (8.00)

46th (3.25)

Field Goal Attempts

2-3

2-2

PAT

7-7

12-13

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 53.4 percent chance to win against the Seminoles. Louisville has an FPI of 1.4 (64th overall), whereas FSU has a rating of -2.5 (82nd overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2021-09-21 at 5.19.20 PM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 50.00 percent chance to take down the Seminoles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.1 (57th overall), whereas FSU has a rating of 2.6 (69th overall. Following the win over UCF, Louisville is favored in five of their nine remaining games on the schedule (Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

  • Preseason: 6.97
  • Post-Week 1: 4.63
  • Post-Week 2: 5.71
  • Post-Week 3: 6.49

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 42, Florida State 24.

(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Melina Myers - USA TODAY Sports)

You can follow Louisville Report for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisville_report

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @GeneralWasp on Twitter