Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Wake Forest
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-1, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Wake Forest (4-0, 2-0 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 2 at 12:30 p.m. EST at Truist Stadium in Winston-Salem, N.C. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Demon Deacons:
- Rankings:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Associated Press Top 25 | 24th | RV |
USA TODAY Coaches Poll | 25th | RV |
SOS | 124th | 81st |
SP+ | 32nd | 58th |
FPI | 54th | 69th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 45th (430.5) | 51st (423.0) |
Scoring Offense | 20th (38.8) | 53rd (31.8) |
Passing Yards | 58th (242.2) | 46th (264.2) |
Yards Per Completion | 55th (12.92) | 76th (12.01) |
Rushing Yards | 43rd (188.2) | 71st (158.8) |
First Downs Gained | 28th (94) | 59th (85) |
3rd Down Con. % | 47th (44.3%) | 68th (39.7%) |
4th Down Con. % | 66th (50.0%) | 64th (54.5%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 46th (89.5%) | 25th (92.9%) |
Turnovers Lost | 36th (4) | 36th (4) |
Interceptions Thrown | 29th (2) | 29th (2) |
Fumbles Lost | 41st (2) | 41st (2) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 34th (4.75) | 34th (4.75) |
Sacks Allowed | 19th (1.25) | 19th (1.25) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 75th (29:25) | 17th (33:09) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 67th (357.8) | 97th (418.2) |
Scoring Defense | 8th (14.2) | 80th (26.0) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 84th (238.8) | 91st (245.5) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 46th (119.0) | 93rd (172.8) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 78th (39.3) | 9th (27.7%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 7th (12.5%) | 59th (50.0%) |
First Downs Allowed | 85th (83) | 100th (90) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 5th (54.5%) | 107th (92.3%) |
Turnovers Gained | 5th (11) | 74th (5) |
Interceptions Caught | 5th (7) | 34th (4) |
Fumbles Recovered | 18th (4) | 88th (1) |
Sacks Per Game | 10th (3.75) | 41st (2.75) |
TFL Per Game | 7th (8.5) | 54th (6.5) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 71st (39.46) | 54th (40.76) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 7th (36.25) | 44th (22.62) |
Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense | 56th (19.29) | 100th (23.71) |
Avg. Punt Return | 25th (14.64) | 21st (15.00) |
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense | 64th (6.50) | 28th (2.60) |
Field Goal Attempts | 7-7 | 3-3 |
PAT | 18-18 | 16-17 |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 27.9 percent chance to win against the Demon Deacons. Louisville has an FPI of 2.6 (58th overall), whereas Wake Forest has a rating of 7.4 (32nd overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 34.03 percent chance to take down the Demon Deacons. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 2.1 (69th overall), whereas Wake Forest has a rating of 6.6 (54th overall). Following the win over FSU, Louisville is favored in two of their eight remaining games on the schedule (Syracuse, Duke).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.97
- Post-Week 1: 4.63
- Post-Week 2: 5.71
- Post-Week 3: 6.49
- Post-Week 4: 6.14
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, Wake Forest 34.
(Photo of Hassan Hall: Jeremy Brevard - USA TODAY Sports)
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