Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. UCF
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (0-1, 0-1 ACC) is set to face UCF (1-0, 0-0 American) on Friday, Sept. 9 at 7:30 p.m. EST at the Bounce House in Orlando, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Knights:
- Rankings:
| UCF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | RV/RV | NR/NR |
SOS | 103rd | 42nd |
SP+ | 27th | 60th |
FPI | 30th | 59th |
Sagarin | 42nd | 63rd |
- Offensive Statistics:
| UCF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 5th (605.0) | 100th (334.0) |
Scoring Offense | 12th (56.0) | 124th (7.0) |
Passing Yards | 31st (308.0) | 89th (197.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 18th (15.40) | 80th (11.59) |
Rushing Yards | 7th (297.0) | 78th (137.0) |
First Downs Gained | 27th (29) | 114th (15) |
3rd Down Con. % | 16th (60.0%) | 55th (45.5%) |
4th Down Con. % | 1st (100.0%) | 76th (0.0%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 103rd (71.4%) | 127th (0.0%) |
Turnovers Lost | 29th (1) | 104th (3) |
Interceptions Thrown | 1st (0) | 107th (2) |
Fumbles Lost | 63rd (1) | 63rd (1) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 80th (6.00) | 94th (7.00) |
Sacks Allowed | 72nd (2.00) | 97th (3.00) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 80th (28:51) | 92nd (27:29) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| UCF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 1st (91.0) | 105th (449.0) |
Scoring Defense | 22nd (10.0) | 89th (31.0) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 4th (56.0) | 83rd (242.0) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 10th (35.0) | 108th (207.0) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 5th (12.5%) | 115th (54.5%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 72nd (50.0%) | 1st (0.0%) |
First Downs Allowed | 8th (9) | 81st (23) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 22nd (50.0%) | 79th (100.0%) |
Turnovers Gained | 66th (1) | N/A |
Interceptions Caught | 33rd (1) | N/A |
Fumbles Recovered | N/A | N/A |
Sacks Per Game | 45th (2.00) | 45th (2.00) |
TFL Per Game | 18th (9.0) | 38th (7.0) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| UCF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 122nd (22.33) | 75th (38.67) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 27th (24.00) | 39th (22.20) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 1st (0.00) | 1st (0.00) |
Avg. Punt Return | 16th (14.33) | 122nd (-1.00) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 95th (6.00) | 113th (10.50) |
Field Goal Attempts | 0-1 | 0-0 |
PAT | 8-8 | 1-1 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 21.4 percent chance to win against the Knights. Louisville has an FPI of 1.9 (59th overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 9.0 (30th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 26.07 percent chance to take down the Knights. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.7 (60th overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 13.1 (27th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Personal Prediction: UCF 42, Louisville 31.
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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