Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Florida State
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ACC) is set to face Florida State (2-0, 0-0 ACC) on Friday, Sept. 16 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:
- Rankings:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | RV/RV | NR/NR |
SOS | 110th | 20th |
SP+ | 35th | 55th |
FPI | 36th | 51st |
Sagarin | 39th | 46th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 17th (515.0) | 85th (377.5) |
Scoring Offense | 55th (35.5) | 122nd (13.5) |
Passing Yards | 67th (246.0) | 99th (196.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 19th (14.47) | 58th (12.65) |
Rushing Yards | 6th (269.0) | 53rd (181.5) |
First Downs Gained | 24th (55) | 110th (34) |
3rd Down Con. % | 9th (59.3%) | 79th (36.0%) |
4th Down Con. % | 88th (33.3%) | 107th (20.0%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 84th (81.8%) | 123rd (60.0%) |
Turnovers Lost | 55th (3) | 76th (4) |
Interceptions Thrown | 29th (1) | 74th (2) |
Fumbles Lost | 69th (2) | 70th (2) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 1st (1.50) | 81st (6.00) |
Sacks Allowed | 12th (0.50) | 103rd (3.00) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 14th (34:39) | 66th (29:51) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 19th (256.0) | 88th (394.0) |
Scoring Defense | 33rd (15.0) | 66th (22.5) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 16th (140.0) | 40th (186.0) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 53rd (116.0) | 53rd (181.5) |
First Downs Allowed | 53rd (36) | 72nd (41) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 35th (28.6%) | 72nd (37.0%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 115th (100.0%) | 1st (0.0%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 40th (75.0%) | 40th (75.0%) |
Turnovers Gained | 88th (2) | 109th (1) |
Interceptions Caught | N/A | 73rd (1) |
Fumbles Recovered | 32nd (2) | N/A) |
Sacks Per Game | 33rd (2.50) | 18th (3.00) |
TFL Per Game | 57th (6.0) | 45th (6.5) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Florida State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 1st (48.67) | 57th (40.29) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 85th (17.75) | 52nd (21.00) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 21st (14.17) | 15th (12.00) |
Avg. Punt Return | 96th (2.33) | 87th (4.00) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 8th (-1.00) | 99th (9.60) |
Field Goal Attempts | 3-4 | 2-3 |
PAT | 8-8 | 3-3 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 45.1 percent chance to win against the Seminoles. Louisville has an FPI rating of 4.5 (51st overall), whereas Florida State has an FPI rating of 8.3 (36th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 42.07 percent chance to take down the Seminoles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.9 (55th overall), whereas Florida State has an SP+ rating of 11.8 (35th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Post-Week 2: 5.70
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Florida State 27.
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Melina Myers - USA TODAY Sports)
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