Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. USF
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (1-2, 0-2 ACC) is set to face USF (1-2, 0-0 American) on Saturday, Sept. 24 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Bulls:
- Rankings:
| USF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | NR/NR | NR/NR |
SOS | 90th | 5th |
SP+ | 100th | 49th |
FPI | 103rd | 53rd |
Sagarin | 116th | 51st |
- Offensive Statistics:
| USF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 89th (373.0) | 69th (418.7) |
Scoring Offense | 79th (30.3) | 113th (19.3) |
Passing Yards | 112th (169.0) | 97th (213.7) |
Yards Per Completion | 91st (11.02) | 62nd (12.33) |
Rushing Yards | 42nd (204.0) | 36th (205.0) |
First Downs Gained | 100th (55) | 89th (59) |
3rd Down Con. % | 86th (37.1%) | 91st (35.9%) |
4th Down Con. % | 25th (71.4%) | 108th (28.6%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 73rd (83.3%) | 110th (72.7%) |
Turnovers Lost | 71st (5) | 104th (7) |
Interceptions Thrown | 103rd (4) | 85th (3) |
Fumbles Lost | 25th (1) | 108th (4) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 8th (3.00) | 68th (5.33) |
Sacks Allowed | 6th (0.33) | 97th (2.67) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 110th (27:33) | 75th (29:38) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| USF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 115th (440.0) | 101st (414.3) |
Scoring Defense | 107th (33.7) | 76th (26.7) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 59th (207.7) | 66th (212.7) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 123rd (232.3) | 117th (201.7) |
First Downs Allowed | 96th (68) | 79th (62) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 119th (50.0%) | 83rd (39.0%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 64th (50.0%) | 1st (0.00%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 39th (75.0%) | 15th (66.7%) |
Turnovers Gained | 27th (6) | 95th (3) |
Interceptions Caught | 19th (4) | 42nd (3) |
Fumbles Recovered | 52nd (2) | N/A |
Sacks Per Game | 86th (1.67) | 12th (3.33) |
TFL Per Game | 29th (7.3) | 22nd (7.7) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| USF | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 96th (36.75) | 35th (42.08) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 23rd (25.94) | 70th (19.88) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | (54th (19.00) | 16th (15.00) |
Avg. Punt Return | 37th (11.33) | 104th (4.29) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 77th (7.00) | 82nd (8.14) |
Field Goal Attempts | 2-4 | 3-4 |
PAT | 11-11 | 7-7 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 88.4 percent chance to win against the Bulls. Louisville has an FPI rating of 4.2 (49th overall), whereas USF has an FPI rating of -9.2 (103rd overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 82.82 percent chance to take down the Bulls. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.0 (53rd overall), whereas USF has an SP+ rating of -9.6 (100th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Post-Week 2: 5.70
- Post-Week 3: 5.08
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 42, USF 17
(Photo of Louie: Jared Anderson - State of Louisville/Louisville Report)
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