Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Wake Forest
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-3, 2-3 ACC) is set to face Wake Forest (6-1, 2-1 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 29 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Demon Deacons:
- Rankings:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | 10th/10th | NR/NR |
SOS | 75th | 63rd |
SP+ | 27th | 55th |
FPI | 19th | 38th |
Sagarin | 15th | 37th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 37th (438.7) | 55th (419.3) |
Scoring Offense | 10th (41.4) | 77th (27.1) |
Passing Yards | 19th (295.7) | 84th (224.3) |
Yards Per Completion | 25th (13.80) | 39th (12.98) |
Rushing Yards | 75th (143.0) | 32nd (195.0) |
First Downs Gained | 41st (172) | 79th (148) |
3rd Down Con. % | 33rd (45.8%) | 76th (38.5%) |
4th Down Con. % | 61st (53.8%) | 115th (33.3%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 8th (94.9%) | 59th (84.6%) |
Turnovers Lost | 6th (5) | 84th (12) |
Interceptions Thrown | 12th (3) | 66th (6) |
Fumbles Lost | 9th (2) | 86th (6) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 61st (5.29) | 41st (4.71) |
Sacks Allowed | 84th (2.29) | 58th (1.86) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 102nd (28:16) | 48th (30:44) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 69th (375.6) | 49th (356.3) |
Scoring Defense | 53rd (24.0) | 26th (20.6) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 84th (238.7) | 51st (217.6) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 57th (136.9) | 60th (138.7) |
First Downs Allowed | 26th (126) | 27th (127) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 65th (37.9%) | 37th (33.7%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 100th (62.5%) | 1st (18.2%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 61st (82.6%) | 6th (68.0%) |
Turnovers Gained | 50th (12) | 9th (16) |
Interceptions Caught | 82nd (5) | 10th (10) |
Fumbles Recovered | 17th (7) | 29th (6) |
Sacks Per Game | 42nd (2.43) | 5th (3.57) |
TFL Per Game | 17th (7.0) | 10th (7.4) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 94th (37.46) | 20th (40.97) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 19th (23.71) | 76th (19.64) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 40th (18.32) | 24th (17.30) |
Avg. Punt Return | 67th (7.33) | 126th (2.43) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 96th (9.75) | 38th (5.40) |
Field Goal Attemps | 10-11 | 10-11 |
PAT | 36-36 | 22-23 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 51.2 percent chance to win against the Demon Deacons. Louisville has an FPI rating of 7.6 (38th overall), whereas Wake Forest has an FPI rating of 10.0 (19th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 40.47 percent chance to take down the Demon Deacons. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.1 (55th overall), whereas Wake Forest has an SP+ rating of 11.7 (27th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Post-Week 2: 5.70
- Post-Week 3: 5.08
- Post-Week 4: 5.71
- Post-Week 5: 4.65
- Post-Week 6: 5.03
- Post-Week 7: 5.77
- Personal Prediction: Wake Forest 31, Louisville 24.
(Photo of Sam Hartman: Reinhold Matay - USA TODAY Sports)
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