Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Murray State
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (1-0, 1-0 ACC) is set to face Murray State (1-0, 0-0 MVC) on Thursday, Sept. 7 at 7:30 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Racers:
- Rankings:
| Murray State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | NR/NR | RV/RV |
SOS | N/A | 70th |
SP+ | N/A | 51st |
FPI | N/A | 43rd |
Sagarin | 205th | 44th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Murray State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 13th (484.0) | 36th (474.0) |
Scoring Offense | 16th (41.0) | 40th (39.0) |
Passing Yards | 23rd (253.0) | 62nd (247.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 4th (18.07) | 33rd (13.72) |
Rushing Yards | 16th (231.0) | 24th (227.0) |
First Downs Gained | 33rd (21) | 71st (21) |
3rd Down Con. % | 16th (53.3%) | 129th (9.1%) |
4th Down Con. % | 1st (100.0%) | 1st (100.0%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 55th (83.3%) | 1st (100.0%) |
Turnovers Lost | 1st (0) | 40th (1) |
Interceptions Thrown | 1st (0) | 60th (1) |
Fumbles Lost | 1st (0) | 1st (0) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 9th (3.00) | 1st (0.00) |
Sacks Allowed | 1st (0.00) | 1st (0.00) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 47th (30:39) | 68th (29:54) |
Key (MSU): National Rank out of 113 FCS Teams (Value)
Key (UofL): National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Murray State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 8th (196.0) | 115th (488.0) |
Scoring Defense | 11th (10.0) | 99th (34.0) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 9th (99.0) | 112th (313.0) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 26th (97.0) | 101st (175.0) |
First Downs Allowed | 4th (11) | 93rd (23rd) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 13th (25.0%) | 101st (46.2%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 1st (0.0%) | 1st (0.0%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 64th (100.0%) | 30th (60.0% |
Turnovers Gained | 51st (1) | 27th (2) |
Interceptions Caught | 21st (1) | 34th (1) |
Fumbles Recovered | N/A | 15th (1) |
Sacks Per Game | 27th (2.00) | 75th (1.00) |
TFL Per Game | 24th (7.00) | 120th (2.0) |
Key (MSU): National Rank out of 113 FCS Teams (Value)
Key (UofL): National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Murray State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 94th (30.00) | 65th (40.25) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 25th (23.00) | 34th (23.00) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 17th (9.67) | 64th (17.50) |
Avg. Punt Return | 28th (9.00) | 66th (3.00) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 7th (0.00) | 98th (8.00) |
Field Goal Attempts | 2-2 | 4-4 |
PAT | 5-5 | 3-3 |
Key (MSU): National Rank out of 113 FCS Teams (Value)
Key (UofL): National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 98.4 percent chance to win against the racers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 6.3 (43rd overall), whereas Murray State does not have an SP+ rating (FCS).
- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 95.87 percent chance to take down the Racers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 7.0 (51st overall), whereas Murray State does not have an SP+ rating (FCS).
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 59, Murray State 7.
(Photo of Jack Plummer: Brett Davis - USA TODAY Sports)
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