Louisville Report

Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. NC State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wolfpack for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:
Matthew McGavic|
Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. NC State
Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. NC State

In this story:

Louisville CardinalsNorth Carolina State Wolfpack

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-0, 2-0 ACC) is set to face NC State (3-1, 1-0 ACC) on Friday, Sept. 29 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, N.C. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wolfpack:

- Rankings:

NC StateLouisville

AP/USA TODAY

NR/NR

RV/RV

SOS

117th

116th

SP+

55th

29th

FPI

53rd

23rd

Sagarin

60th

29th

- Offensive Statistics:

NC StateLouisville

Total Offense

77th (381.2)

5th (542.0)

Yards Per Play

101st (5.19)

4th (8.12)

Scoring Offense

64th (29.2)

9th (43.0)

Passing Yards

94th (214.8)

15th (304.8)

Yards Per Completion

105th (10.60)

9th (16.47)

Rushing Yards

52nd (166.5)

5th (237.2)

Yards Per Rush Attempt

70th (4.24)

8th (6.01)

First Downs Gained

46th (90)

40th (92)

3rd Down Con. %

16th (51.6%)

54th (43.5%)

4th Down Con. %

103rd (33.3%)

7th (83.3%)

Red Zone Con. %

53rd (86.7%)

43th (88.2%)

Turnovers Lost

30th (4)

30th (4)

Interceptions Thrown

72nd (4)

72nd (4)

Fumbles Lost

1st (0)

1st (0)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

71st (5.75)

5th (3.25)

Sacks Allowed

29th (1.25)

29th (1.25)

Avg. Time of Possession

30th (31:54)

46th (31:06)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

NC StateLouisville

Total Defense

43rd (326.0)

64th (359.5)

Yards Allowed Per Play

82nd (5.67)

74th (5.60)

Scoring Defense

54th (21.8)

39th (19.0)

Passing Yards Allowed

56th (211.5)

94th (244.8)

Rushing Yards Allowed

43rd (114.5)

44th (114.8)

First Downs Allowed

14th (61)

56th (73)

3rd Down Defensive %

14th (30.0%)

56th (37.0%)

4th Down Defensive %

119th (75.0%)

10th (25.0%)

Red Zone Defensive %

120th (100.0%)

6th (55.6%)

Turnovers Gained

75th (5)

54th (6)

Interceptions Caught

41st (4)

67th (3)

Fumbles Recovered

87th (1)

28th (3)

Sacks Per Game

33rd (2.75)

86th (1.75)

TFL Per Game

63rd (5.8)

110th (4.5)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

NC StateLouisville

Net Punting

35th (41.39)

70th (38.75)

Avg. Kickoff Return

17th (26.45)

84th (18.00)

Avg. Kickoff Return Def.

106th (23.00)

30th (16.00)

Avg. Punt Return

24th (14.25)

118th (2.10)

Avg. Punt Return Def.

53rd (4.75)

78th (8.00)

Field Goal Attempts

4-6

4-5

PAT

15-15

22-22

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 67.8 percent chance to win against the Wolfpack. Louisville has an FPI rating of 11.6 (23rd overall), whereas NC State has an FPI rating of 2.5 (53rd overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have an 66.40 percent chance to take down the Wolfpack. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.8 (29th overall), whereas NC State has an SP+ rating of 3.1 (55th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 31, NC State 24.

(Photo of Quincy Riley, Julian Gray: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

You can follow Louisville Report for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleReport
Twitter - @UofLReport
Instagram - @louisville_report

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter

Published
Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic

Home/Football