Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Cal

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Golden Bears for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers defensive end Mitchell Melton (17) sacks Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss (7) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Virginia defeated Louisville 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-1, 4-1 ACC) is set to face Cal (5-4, 2-3 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 8 at 7:00 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Golden Bears:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Cal	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	14th/15th
CFP	NR	15th
SOS	100th	56th
SOR	76th	13th
SP+	83rd	23rd
FPI	83rd	26th
Sagarin	76th	22nd
Kelley Ford	79th	27th
CFB Graphs	94th	19th

Offensive Statistics

	Cal	Louisville
Total Offense	107th (332.4)	58th (407.8)
Yards Per Play	112th (5.01)	37th (6.14)
Scoring Offense	88th (24.6)	37th (33.8)
Passing Yards	37th (253.9)	44th (252.0)
Yards Per Completion	75th (11.48)	99th (10.84)
Rushing Yards	133rd (78.6)	68th (155.8)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	133rd (2.63)	25th (5.07)
First Downs Gained	85th (169)	88th (165)
3rd Down Con. %	88th (37.5)	63rd (40.6)
4th Down Con. %	67th (55.6)	85th (50.0)
Red Zone Con. %	45th (87.9)	51st (87.5)
Turnovers Lost	83rd (12)	95th (13)
Interceptions Thrown	119th (10)	80th (7)
Fumbles Lost	12th (2)	98th (6)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	83rd (5.56)	65th (5.13)
Sacks Allowed	110th (2.56)	76th (2.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	85th (29:13)	51st (30:35)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Cal	Louisville
Total Defense	57th (355.3)	11th (280.5)
Yards Allowed Per Play	71st (5.46)	11th (4.45)
Scoring Defense	74th (25.1)	34th (20.8)
Passing Yards Allowed	39th (198.8)	16th (167.9)
Rushing Yards Allowed	85th (156.6)	27th (112.6)
First Downs Allowed	85th (175)	9th (122)
3rd Down Def. %	79th (39.3)	20th (32.4)
4th Down Def. %	84th (58.3)	13th (35.3)
Red Zone Def. %	46th (82.1)	55th (83.3)
Turnovers Gained	51st (11)	15th (16)
Interceptions Caught	64th (6)	7th (12)
Fumbles Recovered	39th (5)	65th (4)
TFL Per Game	97th (4.9)	79th (5.3)
Sacks Per Game	99th (1.67)	66th (2.00)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Cal	Louisville
Net Punting	90th (38.71)	127th (34.97)
Avg. Kickoff Return	54th (21.64)	11th (26.90)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	69th (19.93)	45th (18.62)
Avg. Punt Return	52nd (9.67)	3rd (21.55)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	67th (7.13)	5th (1.00)
Field Goal Attempts	8-10	13-16
PAT	27-27	29-30

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 91.6 percent chance to win against the Golden Bears. Louisville has an FPI rating of 10.7 (26th overall), whereas Cal has an FPI rating of -4.7 (83rd overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have an 88.15 percent chance to take down the Golden Bears. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 14.1 (23rd overall), whereas Cal has an SP+ rating of -3.5 (83rd overall).

- Sagarin Prediction: Per Jeff Sagarin's ratings, the Cardinals have an 87 percent chance to defeat the Golden Bears. Louisville has a Sagarin rating of 82.54 (22nd overall), whereas Cal has a Sagarin rating of 67.18 (79th overall)

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 92 percent chance to defeat the Golden Bears. Louisville has a KFord rating of 12.1 (27th overall), whereas Cal has a KFord rating of -4.1 (79th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 74.9 percent chance to take down the Golden Bears. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.226 (19th overall), Cal has an EPA Margin rating of -0.107 (94th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, Cal 17.

(Photo of Miller Moss: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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