Way-Too-Early Louisville Football 2021 Season Projection
(Photo of Scott Satterfield & Louisville Players: Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports)
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Louisville football program finally learned their full week-to-week 2021 schedule earlier this week, and the countdown to kickoff has officially begun.
There's still a lot that can transpire in the 220 days between now and kickoff. But, with the schedule having been freshly released, Louisville Report decided to take a shot at giving a way-too-early prediction at the Cardinals' record for the 2021 football season.
Related: Who's In, Who's Out and Who's Back for Louisville Football
Take a look below at our game by game predictions, along with a final season win-loss record:
Ole Miss (Monday, Sept. 6)
Last Meeting: First Meeting
Series: First Meeting
Summary: Under second-year head coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels had an extremely productive offense in 2020. They wracked up 555.5 yards per game, which was good for third in FBS, while also averaging 39.2 points per game, the 14th-most in the nation. They do lose their top two receivers in Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah, but retain quarterback Matt Corral.
Defensively, let's just say much was left to be desired. They allowed the eleventh-most points per game at 38.3, and had the second worst total defense at 519.0 yards allowed per game.
This is obviously a defense that Louisville can put points up against, but will it be enough? Can Louisville's defense hold Ole Miss to enough points to allow the offense to catch up? Basically, it all boils down to if the Cardinals can win in a shootout, which at this time, my first guess is no.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Louisville 31.
Eastern Kentucky (Saturday, Sept. 11)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 42-0 on Sept. 7, 2019 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Louisville leads 19-7-1
Summary: We don't have to spend a ton of time here. Operating at the FCS level, EKU went just 3-6 including an 0-3 mark against FBS opponents. This included blowouts to Marshall and West Virginia in which the Colonels lost by a combined 105 points. If this game is even remotely close, Louisville has major problems at hand.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 45, Eastern Kentucky 7.
UCF (Friday, Sept. 17)
Last Meeting: UCF won 38-35 on Oct. 18, 2013 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Tied 1-1
Summary: Like Ole Miss, UCF is another team that excels at putting up a lot of points. Led by quarterback and Heisman dark horse candidate Dillon Gabriel, the Knights put up the eighth-most points per game at 42.2 and the second-most yards at 568.1. UCF also loses their top two receivers in Marlon Williams and Jacob Harris, but Gabriel should still be able to lead the offense with any receiver.
Also like the Rebels, the Knights were abysmal on defense. The gave up 33.2 points per game as were as 491.8 yards per game, the latter of which was the fifth-worst in FBS.
While the Knights will be under a new head coach with Josh Heupel's departure to Tennessee, you will more than likely be asking if Louisville can win a shootout. This will be closer than against Ole Miss, but I am projecting a loss.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: UCF 42, Louisville 38
at Florida State (Saturday, Sept. 25)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 48-16 on Oct. 24, 2020 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Florida State leads 16-5
Summary: The Seminoles didn't exactly have the greatest season by their lofty standards, but for the most part, it wasn't because of their offense. FSU did a much better job on that side of the ball once Jordan Travis was made the starting quarterback, and competition in the QB room should be elevated with the addition of McKenzie Milton from UCF. The Noles also added former Auburn RB DJ Williams, and averaged 25.8 points and 396.7 yards per game in 2020.
The primary factor behind their putrid year was their defense, giving up 36.0 points and 456. 3 yards per game. They also lose their top two defensive assets in cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. and defensive tackle Marvin Willson.
Many expect the Noles to get better in head coach Mike Norvell's second year at the helm, and going down to Tallahassee for your ACC opener is no easy feat. While I agree that FSU should be better this season, I'm still not high on the program as a whole. At least not right now.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 31, Florida State 24
at Wake Forest (Saturday, Oct. 2)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 45-21 on Dec. 12, 2020 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Louisville leads 6-2
Summary: Wake Forest might have had a disappointing campaign in 2020, but quarterback Sam Hartman had a solid year. The Deacs also return their two top receivers in Jaquarii Roberson & Donovan Greene, as well as their top back in Christian Beal-Smith. Wake boasted a top-20 scoring offense (36.0 ppg - 19th) and a top-30 total offense (444.4 ypg - 28th) last season.
Like the first three FBS teams on the schedule, Wake Forest struggled defensively at times last season, surrendering 435.7 yards and 32.8 points per game, both of which barely rank inside the top 100 nationally (90th and 91st respectively. Like FSU, they also lose their top defensive asset in defensive end Carlos Basham Jr. to the NFL.
With this being played in Winston-Salem, most people might think that the Demon Deacons will be the favorite. But, Louisville has averaged 43.6 points per game in their last five games against Wake Forest, including 37.7 points on the road.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 35, Wake Forest 31
Virginia (Saturday, Oct. 9)
Last Meeting: Virginia won 31-17 on Nov. 14 2020 at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Louisville leads 5-4
Summary: While this is yet another team on the schedule where the offense is better than the defense, UVA's offense is not spectacular. QB Brennan Armstrong returns, but he'll have to improve on his 11 interceptions. Starting RB Wayne Taulapapa and receivers Lavel Davis Jr. & Billy Kemp aren't necessarily household names, they will be assisted by a good offensive line.
Not only was UVA's defense not one to right home about, but several key playmakers have moved on. Linebackers Charles Snowden and Zane Zandier graduated, and the Hoos allowed 304.4 passing yards per game - the worst in the ACC and fifth-worst in FBS.
In this series, the home team has won every time but once, with that coming in 2016 when Louisville won in Charlottesville. Had it not been for a late fumble, Louisville could have won again on the road last year.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 31, Virginia 21.
Boston College (Saturday, Oct. 23)
Last Meeting: Boston College won 34-27 on Nov. 28, 2020 at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass.
Series: Louisville leads 7-6
Summary: After being picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC in the 2020 preseason, the Eagles surprised everyone by having a winning record. A lot of it was due to Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec's success under first year head coach Jeff Hafley. Tight end Hunter Long might be heading to the league, but top receiver Zay Flowers returns, as well as one of the conference's top offensive lines.
On the defensive side of things, BC will have to replace some playmakers. Their top two linebackers in Isaiah McDuffie & Max Richardson are gone, but they also bring in transfers Jaiden Lars-Woodbey, Khris Banks and Isaiah Graham-Mobley.
I am incredibly high on Jeff Hafley as a head coach, and think that he will only continue to make Boston College better. While this game will be at home, I'm not sure Louisville can avoid a loss
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Boston College 35, Louisville 28
at NC State (Saturday, Oct. 30)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 34-20 on Nov. 16, 2019 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, N.C.
Series: Louisville leads 7-3
Summary: The Wolfpack was one of the surprise ACC teams last season, improving from 4-8 to 8-4. Not only that, but a majority of NC State's top playmakers return to Raleigh. Quarterback Devin Leary is back, as are their top three receivers and one-two punch at running back.
It's the same story on the defense, as defensive lineman Daniel Joseph passed on the NFL while Alim McNeil departs, and they return their top *thirteen* tacklers, while also boasting one of the best linebacker groups in the ACC with Payton Moore, Isaiah Moore and Drake Thomas.
I could easily see this team as a dark horse to reach the ACC Championship game. Will they unseat Clemson? Probably not. But I know I don't like Louisville's chances against them.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: NC State 35, Louisville 24.
Clemson (Saturday, Nov. 6)
Last Meeting: Clemson won 45-10 on Oct. 19, 2019 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Clemson leads 6-0
Summary: Clemson might be losing future No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence to the NFL, but backup (five star) quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has showed his potential in the limited playing time he saw. Running backTravis Etienne is gone too, but Will Shipley and Lyn-J Dixon are serviceable replacement. Oh, and wideout Justyn Ross is back, too.
Defensively, the Tigers boast their usual depth, highlighted by defensive lineman Bryan Breese and linebacker James Skalski, who is also returning. The only "question mark" is their secondary, but most programs would love to have their "problem".
Clemson will again not only be a heavy favorite to win their seventh ACC title in a row, but also to return to the College Football Playoff. Louisville has never beaten the Tigers, with their last three matchups being blowouts. I don't have to explain much else.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Clemson 52, Louisville 14.
Syracuse (Saturday, Nov. 13)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 30-0 on Nov. 20, 2020 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Louisville leads 12-7
Summary: It's odd how abysmal Syracuse has been offensively the last couple years, given how that is head coach Dino Babers' speciality. They boasted the worst scoring & total offensive marks in the ACC at 17.8 points and 265.3 yards per game, while giving up 38 sacks. Even though the QB room with have more competition, as Tommy DeVito is back from injury and Cuse added Mississippi State transfer Garrett Shrader, it's hard to imagine the Orange making a meaningful stride.
Defensively, it was not much better for Syracuse, as they allowed 463.9 yards and 32.7 points per game. They do bring back Mikel Jones, Ja'Had Carter and Garrett Williams though, their three leading tacklers who also combined for eight interceptions.
With Louisville set to host the Orange for the third year in a row, it's hard not to imagine them repeating the last two games.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 38, Syracuse 3.
at Duke (Thursday, Nov. 18)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 24-14 on Nov. 14, 2016 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Series: Louisville leads 2-0
Summary: To say Duke had a down year is an understatement, as the Blue Devils finished at 2-9 on the year. Quarterback Chase Brice transferred to Appalachian State, while their leading rusher in Mataeo Durant, two leading receivers and most of their offensive line return.
You can't say the same for their defense. Defensive ends Chris Rumph & Victor Dimukeje and safety Michael Carter declared for the NFL, while Drew Jordan & Derrick Tangelo transferred. And this was already a defense that allowed 38.1 points per game.
The Cards make their first trip to Duke since the 2002 season, and I could very easily see a repeat of that game.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 42, Duke 17
Kentucky (Saturday, Nov. 27)
Last Meeting: Kentucky won 45-13 on Nov. 30, 2019 at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington Ky.
Series: Kentucky leads 17-15
Summary: Kentucky might have finished with one of the worst offenses in the SEC, but they run the ball exceptionally well. They averaged 196.5 rushing yards per game, and return their top back in Christopher Johnson Jr., who rushed for 785 yards and 11 touchdowns. Quarterback Terry Wilson is also back whenever they do decide to throw the ball.
Leading tackler Jamin Davis might be heading to league, but the Wildcats still return a majority of their defense. Kentucky actually finished with a top-five scoring and total defense in the SEC, allowing just 25.9 points and 380.7 yards per game.
I want to side with Louisville solely because of how bad their are as a total offensive package, but they run the ball a lot, and run it extremely well - something Louisville has struggled with in recent years. They also have a very underrated defense.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Kentucky 28, Louisville 24
Way-Too-Early Season Projection: 6-6 (5-3 ACC)
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