Way-Too-Early Louisville Football 2023 Season Projection
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Spring practice for the Louisville football program is in full swing, and the countdown to kickoff has officially begun.
There's still a lot that can transpire in the 140 days between now and the Cardinals' season opener down in Atlanta against Georgia Tech. However, Louisville Report decided to take a shot at giving a way-too-early prediction at Louisville's record for the 2023 football season.
Related: Who's In, Who's Out and Who's Back for Louisville Football in 2023
Take a look below at our game-by-game predictions, along with a final season win-loss record:
vs. Georgia Tech (Friday, Sept. 1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Last Meeting: Georgia Tech won 46-27 on Oct. 9, 2020 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
All-Time Series: Georgia Tech leads 2-0
Summary: Georgia Tech turned into a much, much better football team once they dumped head coach Geoff Collins and turned the keys over to Brent Key, who did so well as the interim that he was made the full time head coach. Key went 4-4 last season, including a massive upset win at North Carolina.
Their defense was ahead of their offense last season, allowing 28.4 points per game for the No. 83 scoring defense in FBS, but the Yellow Jackets do lose key pieces on that side of the ball. Defensive end Keion White is projected as a first-round NFL Draft pick, and linebackers Charlie Thomas and Ayinde Eley both graduated. This trio comprised of 284 tackles, 34 tackles for loss, 13 sacks and six forced fumbles.
Georgia Tech struggled immensely on offense, only averaging 324.8 yards and 17.2 points per game for the 114th total offense and 124th scoring offense nationally. On top of that, quarterback Jeff Sims is now at Nebraska, and the Jackets don't really have an experienced wide receiver corps, losing their top three receivers to either the portal or NFL Draft.
Key seems like the right guy to lead Georgia Tech, but he still has plenty of work to do. Having to open up the season "on the road" is certainly no easy task, but Louisville, as of right now, seems to be the much better team on paper.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 35, Georgia Tech 17
Murray State (Thursday, Sept. 7)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 55-10 on Sept. 30, 2017 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 14-6
Summary: Even for an FCS team, Murray State was not good last year. They didn't secure their first win until late October, got rocked by Texas Tech 63-10 in their lone game against an FBS opponent, and lost all four games against top-25 FCS squads by an average of 32 points.
I won't bother giving an extensive breakdown here. Even if this wasn't the first home game of the Jeff Brohm era, Louisville should win this game by a landslide. If this game isn't won by at least four touchdowns, something went very wrong.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 55, Murray State 10
vs. Indiana (Saturday, Sept. 16 at Lucas Oil Stadium)
Last Meeting: Indiana won 21-0 on Sept. 13, 1986 at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
All-Time Series: Indiana leads 21-0
Summary: We're a long ways removed from Indiana being ranked in the top-10 a couple seasons ago. The Hoosiers were able to open up their season with a good win over Illinois, and then it didn't get much better than that, eventually stumbling to 4-8. The seat on which head coach Tom Allen sits on is starting to warm up.
As you can imagine, neither side of the line of scrimmage particularly impressed. On offense, IU does bring back their top wide receiver in Cam Camper but does loss starting running back Shaun Stivers, and will have a new quarterback under center. Other than that, there's not a ton of roster upheaval on this side of the ball, but it was still an offense that barely cracked the top-100 in scoring at 23.2 points per game.
IU's defense, a unit that was already 118th in FBS after giving up 449.2 points per game, saw a lot of top pieces depart the program. The Hoosiers do return leading tackler linebacker Aaron Casey, who also collected a team-best 10.5 tackles for loss, but that's about it. Whether it be through the portal or graduation, Indiana lost their nine top tacklers behind Casey. Of the 12 players that logged at least 2.0 tackles for loss last season for IU, nine have departed.
Indiana has countered a lot of their losses with solid transfer portal additions. They sport the No. 19 transfer portal ranking according to On3, which is the third-highest of any Louisville opponent behind Kentucky and Miami. But even with that, this neutral site matchup vastly favors Louisville.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 38, Indiana 20
Boston College (Saturday, Sept. 23)
Last Meeting: Boston College won 34-33 on Oct. 1, 2022 at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 8-7
Summary: Boston College took a huge step back in year three of the Jeff Hafley era. The Eagles went from being bowl eligible their first two season under Hafley, to finishing just 3-9 in 2022.
A vast majority of the struggles for BC last season was due to woefully inept offensive line play, as they placed 125th and 128th nationally in tackles for loss and sacks allowed, respectively. Not to mention they also lost a projected first round NFL Draft pick in wide receiver Zay Flowers, as well as starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec who is now at Pitt. That being said, they do get back All-ACC lineman Christian Mahogany, who had to miss all off last season due to injury, as well as starting running back Pat Garwo while also bringing in former UCF wideout Ryan O'Keefe.
The Eagles' defense was a lot better, allowing only 377.8 yards per game for the 66th-ranked total defense in FBS. It just wasn't displayed very often considering how much they were on the field because of the offense. They do lose Jaiden Woodbey and Chibueze Onwuka to the NFL Draft, but retain several top playmakers on that side of the ball such as Second-Team All-ACC defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku and leading tackler linebacker Vinny DePalma.
This should be the first true test for Louisville's new offense under Jeff and Brian Brohm. However, it's hard to ignore the struggles with Boston College's offense and turnover at key positions. Not to mention the returners for the Cardinals will be wanting to avenge their stunning loss to BC last season, especially at home.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 28, Boston College 14.
at NC State (Friday, Sept. 29)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 25-10 on Nov. 19, 2022 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 8-4
Summary: NC State had very lofty expectations last season, and for good reason. They and Wake Forest were viewed as very real threats to Clemson's ACC supremacy. While they still had a somewhat successful season at 8-5, it fell well short of what they were expected to do.
Part of their shortcomings was an offense that struggled immensely last season - averaging only 339.8 yards per game for the 104th-ranked offense - and that was exacerbated by a season-ending injury to quarterback Devin Leary. However, Virginia's all-time leading passer quarterback Brennan Armstrong is now in Raleigh, and he's reunited with his old offensive coordinator with the Hoos in Robert Anae. The Wolfpack do lose their top two receivers in Thayer Thomas and Devin Carter, but retain all-purpose back Jordan Houston, who led NC State in scrimmage yards at 757.
Last season, NC State was anchored by one of the best defenses in all of college football, allowing only 326.9 yards and 19.2 points per game for the 19th-ranked total defense and 11th-ranked scoring defense. The Wolfpack aren't immune to attrition, as they lost their three of their top four leading tacklers in linebackers Drake Thomas and Isaiah Moore plus safety Tanner Ingle. NC State still has a handful of returners though, headlined by First-Team All-ACC defenders cornerback Aydan White and linebacker Payton Wilson.
Time will tell if Armstrong is able to return to form, especially with a receiving corps that isn't as good as he had at UVA, but reuniting with Anae isn't something that should be understated. Plus with NC State in line to have another great defense, and this game being on the road, this shapes up to be an uphill battle for Louisville.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: NC State 31, Louisville 24.
Notre Dame (Saturday, Oct. 7)
Last Meeting: Notre Dame won 12-7 on Oct. 17, 2020 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Ind.
All-Time Series: Notre Dame leads 2-1
Summary: The Marcus Freeman era at Notre Dame didn't have the best start, going 3-3 in the first half of the year including losses to Marshall and Stanford, but the Fighting Irish finished strong. They won six of their final seven games, including at home vs. Clemson and against South Carolina in their bowl game, and head into 2023 as a preseason top-15 squad.
Sam Hartman might no longer be at Wake Forest, but he'll face Louisville one more time before he closes his career out, this time as the quarterback for the Irish. His receiving corps isn't particularly scary outside of Virginia Tech transfer Kaleb Smith, especially since tight end Michael Mayer is now in the NFL Draft process. But that's countered by a fantastic Notre Dame ground game. Running backs Logan Diggs and Audric Estime, who each tallied over 1,000 yards from scrimmage last season, are back in South Bend. They'll also be running behind First-Team All-American tackle Joe Alt.
Notre Dame does lose Second-Team All-American defensive lineman Isaiah Foskey, who tallied double-digit sacks and tackles for loss, but they return several starters from a defense that allowed just 329.3 yards per game (21st in FBS). Seven of their top ten tacklers are back for another season with the Fighting Irish - including their four leading tacklers - as well as cornerback Benjamin Morrison, whose six interceptions was third in the FBS.
Outside of the Kentucky matchup, this will be the biggest game of the season for Louisville. Notre Dame could be a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, not to mention the huge Catholic population in Jefferson County. Even with what should be a raucous Cardinal L&N Stadium crowd, overcoming the Irish will be a tall task.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Notre Dame 35, Louisville 28.
at Pitt (Saturday, Oct. 14)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 24-10 on Oct. 22, 2022 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Pitt leads 10-9
Summary: On the heels of winning the ACC, Pitt also entered the 2022 season with extremely high expectations. Going 9-4 on the year with a bowl win over a good UCLA team and only one bad loss (at home vs. Georgia Tech on the heels of firing Geoff Collins) is still a very good season. But like with NC State, it left a little to be desired.
Losing running back Israel Abanikanda, who rushed for 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns last year, is obviously a massive loss for the Panthers. Wide receiver Jared Wayne, who tallied 1,063 receiving yards and five touchdowns, is also off to the NFL. Receiver Konata Mumpfield and running back Rodney Hammond were solid twos behind Abanikanda and Wayne, and Pitt did land quarterback Phil Jurkovec from Boston College, who should be in line to bounce back behind a much better offensive line.
Pitt had a phenomenal defense last season, but it did give up more points than expected, allowing 24.3 points for the 50th-ranked scoring defense against allowing 329.9 yards per game for the 22nd-ranked total defense. On top of that, they shed a ton of talent. Five of their seven defenders that were named All-ACC last season, including ACC Defensive Player of the Year lineman Calijah Kancey, have moved on. There's still talent to go around here, such as linebacker Shayne Simon and M.J. Devonshire, but it will be a near-complete changing of the guard.
The Panthers are probably going to take a bit of a step back with all the high level talent they lose, but there still are playmakers on this team. I anticipate this to be a very closely contested game, and with this being played in the Steel City, I'll give the slight advantage to Pitt.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Pitt 27, Louisville 24.
Duke (Saturday, Oct. 28)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 62-22 on Nov. 18, 2021 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 3-0
Summary: Mike Elko orchestrated an incredible turnaround in his first year as the head coach. Inheriting a team that had gone just 3-9 the season before, he guided the Blue Devils to a 9-4 record and a bowl win over UCF. It was only their third season of nine or more wins since joining the ACC in 1953.
A lot of their success came from a vastly improved offense, averaging 32.8 points (31st in FBS) and 415.7 yards (43rd in FBS) per game. Riley Leonard established himself as one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the ACC with his play both through the air and on the ground, totaling 3,666 yards of offense and 33 total touchdowns. Oh, and Duke returns essentially all of their offensive skill position players. Of their 5,404 yards of offense generated last season, they lose only *48* yards of production.
Duke's defense lagged behind the offense a bit, allowing 378.9 yards per game for the No. 67 total defense in the FBS, but it still has playmakers. The Blue Devils do lose safety Darius Joiner and linebacker Shaka Heyward, who were their two leading tacklers with 190 combined tackles. However, they do bring back Second-Team All-ACC defensive tackle DeWayne Carter - who collected 11.0 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks - as well as other impact defenders like cornerback Brandon Johnson and defensive end R.J. Oben.
The offensive continuity for Duke is astounding, and that could present extreme fits for Louisville's defense. However, the Blue Devils' defense was below average by ACC standards, even with solid depth and talent. A key factor here is that, last season, Duke went 3-3 on the road with no wins against above .500 teams. This should be a close, high-scoring game, but I give the Cardinals the edge at home.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 38, Duke 34.
Virginia Tech (Saturday, Nov. 4)
Last Meeting: Virginia Tech won 42-35 on Oct. 31, 2020 at Cardinals Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Virginia Tech leads 6-2
Summary: Unlike the previous team, the start of the Brent Pry era at Virginia Tech was not exactly brimming with success. The Hokies did notch an upset win at Liberty towards the end of their 2022 season, but it was still one where they finished 3-8 and were one of the worst teams in the ACC.
The Hokies actually had a slightly below average defense by the ACC's standards last season, posting the 55th-ranked total defense and 53rd-ranked total defense at 370.4 yards and 24.7 points per game allowed, respectively. The only issue is that some of their top defenders have moved on to the NFL. This includes their two leading tacklers in linebacker Dax Hollifield and safety Chamarri Conner, as well as VT's leader in sacks and tackles for loss in defensive end TyJuan Garbutt. At 12.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks, Garbutt had 6.0 TFL's and 4.5 sacks more than the next person on the Hokies' roster.
On the other side of the ball, Virginia Tech was... not great. They could do very little right on offense, averaging only 313.5 yards (119th in FBS) and 19.3 points (117th in FBS) per game. Quarterback Grant Wells threw as many picks as he did touchdowns (nine), and his 59.0 completion rate was just 10th in the ACC. Not to mention that the Hokies lost their top four players in terms of yards from scrimmage, with wide receiver Da'Wain Lofton and his 251 total yards being the top amongst returners.
Facing one of the worst teams in the ACC is one thing, doing so at home only ups the ante. I expect Louisville to win fairly easily here.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 38, Virginia Tech 14
Virginia (Thursday, Nov. 9)
Last Meeting: Louisville won 34-17 on Oct. 8, 2022 at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 6-5
Summary: Much like their rival, Virginia also welcomed a new head coach in Tony Elliott, and their first season wasn't very fruitful. The Cavaliers won two of their first three games of the season, then proceeded to win just one more time to fall finish their 2022 campaign at 3-7.
From a production standpoint, Virginia was actually pretty similar to Virginia Tech. The Hoos' total and scoring defense ranked just inside the top-50 nationally, allowing only 357.6 yards and 24.0 points per game. UVA does lose First-Team All-ACC cornerback Anthony Johnson to the NFL and Second-Team All-ACC defenders linebacker Nick Jackson and corner Fentrell Cypress to the portal, but didn't lose many other pieces on that side of the ball. Linemen Chico Bennett and Aaron Faumui, who combined for 16.0 TFL's and 11 sacks, highlight the returners.
Then, there was the offense. Even with an incredibly productive quarterback in Brennan Amrstrong, Virginia only posted the 102nd and 125th ranked total and scoring offense, respectively, averaging only 344.1 yards and 17.0 points per game. For example, receivers Dontayvion Wicks, Keytaon Thompson and Billy Kemp IV combined for 2,918 receiving yards in 2021. They only posted 1,125 receiving yards in 2022, and none of those three - or Armstrong - are back. They do return their running back duo of Perris Jones and Mike Hollins, but that's really it.
While Louisville will face a better defense against Virginia than Virginia Tech, the discrepancy between the offensive and defensive efficiency is enormous. The Cardinals have the horses to put points on the board, and the Cavaliers simply do not.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 31, Virginia 7.
at Miami (Saturday, Nov. 18)
Last Meeting: Miami won 47-34 on Sept. 19, 2020 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Miami leads 11-3
Summary: Every year since the mid-2000's Miami has followed a similar script: generate an insane amount of hype over the offseason, only to fall drastically short of what said expectations are. The first year of the Mario Cristobal era was no exception, going from preseason favorite to win the Coastal Division to just 5-7 overall in 2022.
Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke burst onto the scenes in 2021 as the ACC Rookie of the Year, yet threw for only 1,835 yards and 10 touchdowns to five interceptions this past season. Throw in an underperforming offensive line and a receiving corps that failed no All-ACC selections, and you have an offense that produces only 367.1 yards (85th in FBS) and 23.6 points (96th in FBS) per game. Running back Henry Parrish Jr., who collected 736 all-purpose yards and six total touchdowns, is this offense's only real threat as of right now.
Defensively, the Canes put together a unit that finished with the 64th-ranked total defense (376.5 yards allowed per game) and 66th-ranked scoring defense (26.8 points allowed per game). Some guys are moving on, like Third-Team All-ACC corner Tyrique Stevenson, but Miami retains several impact playmakers. First-Team All-ACC safety Kamren Kitchens and his six interceptions are back. Defensive linemen Leonard Taylor and Akheem Mesidor plus linebacker Corey Flagg Jr. - who all finished with 10.5 tackles for loss and combined for 12.5 sacks - are all back. Plus they added quality depth via the portal, such as Purdue defensive lineman Branson Deen and Washington State linebacker Francisco Mauigoa and Georgia State defensive lineman Thomas Gore.
Miami should be better next season, as evidenced by their No. 8 recruiting class and their No. 18 transfer portal rankings. Their defense should be able to take a huge step forward, but as of right now, their offense will be absolutely hold them behind unless someone steps up. It won't be easy coming on the road, but I believe Louisville can take advantage of this.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 24, Miami 21.
Kentucky (Saturday, Nov. 25)
Last Meeting: Kentucky won 26-13 on Nov. 26, 2022 at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky.
All-Time Series: Kentucky leads 19-15
Summary: Coming off of just their fourth ten-win season in program history, expectations were understandably high for Kentucky and Mark Stoops heading into the 2022 season. However, the year wound up being a massive disappointment, going from as high as the No. 7 team in the nation to just 7-6 by season's end.
Kentucky loses projected first round quarterback Will Levis to the NFL Draft, but gains one of the best signal callers in the ACC in former NC State product Devin Leary. The Wildcats graduated one of their best running backs in school history in Chris Rodriguez, but bring in Vanderbit's Re'Mahn Davis, who was a 1,000-yard rusher last season. Oh, and UK brings back their top three receivers in Barion Brown, Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson. The lone problem? They had an absolutely abysmal offensive line, which single-handedly sunk that side of the ball, producing the worst total and scoring offense in the SEC at 324.7 yards and 20.4 points per game.
Conversely, Kentucky had one of the best defenses in college football, allowing only 311.4 yards (11th in FBS) and 19.2 points (13th in FBS) per game. The 'Cats do lose key pieces like linebackers Jordan Wright and DeAndre Square plus cornerback Carrington Valentine, but it's a defense that both brings back a lot of playmakers too. Five of their top nine tacklers and four of their top five tackle for loss defenders are back, like linebackers J.J. Weaver, D'Eryk Jackson and Trevin Wallace. It wasn't the most super disruptive defense in terms of turnovers and sacks/TFL's, but it was extremely efficient.
Adding in the No. 29 high school recruiting class and No. 10 transfer portal haul, Kentucky is almost assured to bounce back to some degree. It really all depends on if Leary can stay healthy, especially behind that porous offensive line. I believe this will also be a close matchup, and I want to pick Louisville - especially with this being at home - but it's really hard to ignore both recent trends and that stout defense.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Kentucky 31, Louisville 24.
Way-Too-Early Season Projection: 8-4 (6-2 ACC)
(Photo of Louie: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)
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