Weighing Louisville's Conference Realignment Options
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Conference realignment is now firmly in hyperdrive.
It all got started last summer when Texas and Oklahoma announced that they would be leaving for the SEC, which, among other moves, led to the Big 12 adding BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston. After a holding pattern that lasted several months, it got thrust back into high gear last month with USC and UCLA announcing they are leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten.
We don't know when the next shoe will drop when it comes to conference realignment. It could be tomorrow, a couple weeks from now or even several months. But with all the rumors and reports regarding the subject that have come out since the USC/UCLA bombshell, it's a consensus belief that conference realignment is far from done.
Related: What the Latest Conference Realignment Moves Could Mean for Louisville
Several different schools have been thrown around as potential conference realignment pieces, ranging from Oregon and Washington to Clemson and Florida State. But what are the options currently on the table for Louisville, how viable are they, and which one is the best in long term?
Lobby to the SEC or Big Ten
For many Louisville fans, this is the option they would like to see, and it's hard not to see why. We are currently in the midst of an arms race between the SEC and the Big Ten, and it's only a matter of time before they establish themselves as the two super-conference with everyone else fighting for third place.
But just how realistic is it that Louisville is able to successfully negotiate for a seat at one of the two biggest tables in college football? It's going to be hard.
Both the SEC and Big Ten are in line to each have 16 teams with the current conference realignment moves in place. When the dust eventually settles, it's hard to envision either conference crossing the 20-school threshold, so practically speaking, there are just eight spots left.
We've already seen several teams rumored to be interested in some of these final spots, most of whom are from the Pac-12 and ACC. Oregon, Washington, Clemson, Florida State and Miami are a few of the schools who have been floated around the most due to pure football reasons; with schools like Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and Virginia also getting mentions because of academic prowess. Let's also not forget about Notre Dame, if they chose to forgo independence.
Louisville athletic director Josh Heird is going to have a tough time on his hand if he wants to get UofL in the mix for either the SEC or Big Ten, but it's not impossible. If Tom Jurich was able to get Louisville into the ACC, Heird, who worked under Jurich for years, could replicate his predecessor's success.
That being said, one of the two options is far more likely than the other. The fact of the matter is that the Big Ten places a very, very high emphasis on academics, to the point where every current member besides Nebraska are members of the Association of American Universities. Besides the Cornhuskers, every Big Ten school ranks in the top 85 of the most recent university rankings by U.S. News. Meanwhile, Louisville is tied for the 187th spot.
So if Louisville is going to join either side of the super-conference arms race, it's almost guaranteed to be the SEC because of the academics. It still would be a big hurdle for Heird to get the Cardinals over, but considering Mississippi State is ranked No. 196 by U.S. News, at least they wouldn't be the worst in the conference.
This also is the better option for Louisville from an on-field product standpoint. No offense to the Big Ten, but even the most casual fan knows that the SEC is the best conference in college football. Not to mention that it would likely save their rivalry with Kentucky. It might take a couple seasons to get acclimated to the brand of football that the SEC plays, but long term, this is arguably the best move for Louisville. It just might be difficult to pull off.
Lobby to the Big 12
As much as many Louisville fans would love to see the Cardinals join the SEC and comfortably have a seat at the big boy table, the Big 12 honestly would serve as a good contingency plan should those attempts fall short.
A year ago, many thought that the Big 12 was on its deathbed after losing their two biggest money makers in Texas and Oklahoma. Now, between them, the ACC and the Pac-12, they are arguably the most stable of the three.
Sure, the Longhorns and Sooners don't have near the collective cache that BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston do. But, the move to add those four schools gave the conference some stability and a much clearer path towards the future than either the Pac-12 or ACC do. Many think it's only a matter of time before the Pac-12 is killed off entirely, and I'll get into the ACC's potential instability in the next section.
Plus, they're being proactive in conference realignment. CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd reported last week that the Big 12 is "involved in deep discussions" to add up to six schools from the Pac-12.
It wouldn't be the SEC or the Big Ten, but gaining membership to a potential third super-conference is a pretty solid consolation prize for Louisville. First of all, you would be able to revive the Keg of Nails rivalry with Cincinnati, and the rivalry with West Virginia from the Big East days would get new life.
Plus, Louisville is ahead of West Virginia (No. 241) and Texas Tech (No. 217) in the U.S. News ranking, and tied with Oklahoma State, so academics aren't as much of a factor here.
While it's very much a non-factor in conference realignment, it would make for some good basketball as well. Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, and Louisville as the conference headliners would make the Big 12 more of a must-watch than it already is.
Stand pat with the ACC
Oddly enough, the most likely option for Louisville could also be the most volatile depending on how the dominoes fall.
The unfortunate truth, as stated in the last section, is that due to a combination of a lack of a historic football history and relatively subpar academics when compared to most other Power Five universities, Louisville is not the most attractive piece in the conference realignment puzzle.
Related: Why Conference Realignment Could Add Pressure for Louisville to Perform in 2022
As attractive as the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 all sound, the most likely course of action is that Louisville stands with the ACC. That is, if the conference holds itself together.
As many know by now, the ACC is bound together by a Grant of Rights that lasts through 2036, and that it carries an exit fee that approaches the $100 million mark. In theory, it would mean the ACC is airtight and immune to poaching right?
Well, maybe not. The ACC also has arguably the worst media rights contract in the Power Five, which along with the Grant of Rights, doesn't expire until 2036. This can be renegotiated should the conference add schools, but so far, the ACC hasn't shown that they are interested in adding new members. At least not yet, or at least publicly.
Not to mention that for some current members, the benefit of leaving for the much more lucrative SEC and Big Ten could outweigh the cost of the exorbitant exit fee.
During the fiscal year 2020-21, the ACC generated roughly $578 million, which meant each school received an average of $36.1 million. For comparison's sake, the SEC generated $777.8/54.6 during this time and the Big Ten generated $680/46.1 million. Essentially, the ACC was $100 million behind the Big Ten and $200 million behind the SEC, and this is *before* Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA all join.
The dominoes could stand still, but they could also fall in a hurry. Last week, SI's Nole GameDay reported that Florida State was "in the process of exploring a move to a new conference," and that the Seminoles have "had discussions with the SEC and Big Ten since last summer."
Beyond FSU, Clemson and Miami are also attractive options for football reasons, as are North Carolina and Virginia for academic reasons. The ACC better hope that the Grant of Rights is as air tight as they think it is.
Other options?
For a moment, let's entertain a world where Louisville doesn't get into the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12, and the ACC does collapse. What's next?
It's hard to tell, but it's almost certain that joining the Pac-12 won't be an option considering they will likely be killed off before the ACC is. It gets pretty grim from here.
There's always the option of forming a new conference with the remnants of both the ACC and Pac-12, which might be the best course of action if Louisville - and the leftover schools in both conferences - want to stay at least somewhat relevant.
If Louisville does find themselves on the outside looking in, it's imperative that they find a new home fast. Even if that means potentially having to drop down to a current Group of Five conference like the American Athletic Conference. It's as grim future should that come to pass, but one that Louisville needs to accept could happen if they aren't proactive.
(Photo of helmet via University of Louisville Athletics)
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