LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Who Wins and Why?

LSU and Texas A&M both enter Week 4 after a loss, putting each of their College Football Playoff hopes on the line.

In a game where both teams have playoff potential and an early-season conference loss, the stakes go beyond that storyline. Both teams need to find their identities and fix glaring issues that cost them their Week 3 games.

LSU will win the game, a classic night game in Death Valley.

For the Tigers, the Aggies' trip to Baton Rouge is a chance to prove their offseason moves right, from their head coaching change to their roster overhaul.

LSU does have problems, but it has shown the level of completeness necessary to be one of the best teams in the country in every single game. Last week's loss to Ole Miss gave LSU the wake-up call it needed to fix those problems and handle whatever comes its way in 2026.

That complete team shows up this week against Texas A&M and takes down the Aggies in a game that won't be particularly close.

Showing Texas A&M Elite Quarterback Play

Sep 19, 2026; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Louisiana State Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) looks to pass the ball against the Mississippi Rebels during the third quarter at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

LSU fans need to see a win over Texas A&M.

It's been a rough slide since LSU's 2023 win over the Aggies, especially at the quarterback position.

In 2024 and 2025, LSU fought with Texas A&M in the first half, with beautiful play from Garrett Nussmeier at the helm of the offense in both games.

But the second half of both games was a completely different story.

LSU was outscored 66 to 13 across both games, after leading both games at halftime.

LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has a unique chance to right the wrongs of the last two seasons' wrongs against the Aggies.

Leavitt himself needs a major game, having come to LSU as the country's most-watched transfer quarterback this offseason. And so far, LSU fans feel that he hasn't lived up to everything he was hyped up to be. The flashes are there, but he's still missing some parts of his game that will keep LSU fans content.

For Leavitt, he's preparing for an Aggie defense that just allowed 408 yards and 31 points to Kentucky, in a result that shocked the college football world.

Texas A&M's defense allowed the Wildcats' quarterback Kenny Minchey to throw for 252 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 completions.

Texas A&M's pass defense was carved open by Minchey in one of the worst defensive performances by the Aggies in head coach Mike Elko's tenure.

Leavitt's ability to exploit a defense with his arms and his legs can be a great weapon for LSU to use as it looks to tear apart the Aggies' defense for the second game in a row.

Both Lane Kiffin and wide receiver Winston Watkins Jr. said Leavitt showed leadership following LSU's loss to Ole Miss, leading a team meeting and taking the offensive staff and Kiffin's advice on improving his game.

Kiffin offered a specific insight into his approach with Leavitt after missing what appeared to be major misses on certain plays.

"'When you get impacted early in the game by rush, that (Ole Miss) did a really good job... and you can't step up, and you're getting beat inside, and a guy's open, but you can't step up and throw in rhythm, it affects you," Kiffin said he dove into with Leavitt.

But he said some of Leavitt's "mistakes" in the passing game come from previous experiences.

"Confidence is fragile at every position, but especially at quarterback," Kiffin said. "And when you have success, a lot of the places he was having success was taking off on his own and doing things... But he knows he's got to do a better job of (finding open receivers)... and deliver the ball on time and not try too much."

Leavitt is close. His game is close to being the most complete it's been yet.

With "Tell the Truth Monday" back in Baton Rouge, Leavitt got a chance to watch every play, every route and every decision back and hear more feedback than usual from his coaches.

That's the type of coaching Leavitt needs at this point with where his game is.

Because of that, Texas A&M will be the game for him to make it all click.

The LSU offense will put up over 40 points this week, with the air attack finally taking its full shape.

The Defense's Problems End Here

Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed got his chance as a freshman against LSU, and he hasn't looked back.

In 2024, the LSU defense was flying around quarterback Connor Weigman, who completed just six of his 18 passes for just 64 yards in the first half.

He was benched at halftime for freshman Reed.

Reed crushed LSU, running all over the Tigers, tallying 62 rushing yards and three of the Aggies' four second-half touchdowns on the ground. He only needed to pass twice, and he completed both passes for 70 yards.

But that wasn't enough for Reed.

He came to Tiger Stadium in 2025 and took over Death Valley, defeating LSU 49-25 and effectively ending Brian Kelly's tenure in Baton Rouge.

Reed took over with 202 passing yards and two touchdowns, but he dominated yet again on the ground, rushing 13 times for 108 yards and two more touchdowns.

Reed is so confident against LSU, that earlier this week, he said that he doesn't lose to LSU.

LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker is going to change that.

The 2026 LSU defense is the best iteration of Baker's defenses, ranking first overall before the Ole Miss loss.

While Ole Miss cut up LSU's defense and showed many weaknesses, it wasn't as bad as it all seemed.

Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country, with Heisman hopeful Trinidad Chambliss leading the charge. He cut up the coverages and made all the right plays against LSU a week ago, but that won't happen again.

LSU wanted to keep the Rebels' offense in front of them last week, something Baker typically doesn't do. Baker is about pressure and simulated pressure, forcing a quarterback to always have to be quick to make a decision and read the defense during the play.

That didn't happen against Ole Miss last week, but it will happen against Texas A&M.

And the breakouts Reed had in the past two seasons also won't happen again. That's because LSU's defensive playmakers this year are undeniably stronger than they were a season ago.

The contain up front will be better, and if Reed does break contain, LSU has the best version of Whit Weeks it's ever had and a prime TJ Dottery ready to make plays to clean up Reed.

LSU's defense will hold the Texas A&M to less than 20 points, jumping all over the Aggies and creating havoc for Reed and his offense to try and control all game long.

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