Something To Consider Before Filling Out Your NCAA Tournament Bracket

A week from now, much of America will be focused on trying to win their NCAA tournament office pool. Here's something to consider ahead of time.

There's been a lot of talk about parity this college basketball season. But is that perception or reality? The numbers absolutely confirm the popular perception of parity is indeed reality.

According to Ken Pomeroy's renowned analytics, which have become so respected they're often used by oddsmakers to set the lines on college basketball games, Kansas is the number one overall team in the country at the end of the regular season. The Jayhawks boast an overall efficiency rating of 30.32, which is almost four points higher than No. 2 Gonzaga. That means, according to KenPom, Kansas would be about a four-point favorite over the Zags on a neutral court with everyone healthy.

However, last season's overall number one team at KenPom, Virginia, had an efficiency rating of 34.22. Meaning the 2019 Cavaliers would be more than a four-point favorite on a neutral floor over the 2020 Jayhawks.

Villanova was number one overall at KenPom in 2018. KenPom says those Wildcats would be a 3.5-point favorite over this year's Kansas. 2017's number one overall, Gonzaga, would be a two-point favorite. As would 2016 number one Villanova. Kentucky was the top team in 2015, and would be almost a seven-point favorite over 2020 Kansas. In fact, you have to go all the way back to Florida in 2006 to find a number one team with a lower overall efficiency rating than this year's Kansas squad at KenPom.

The parity this season shows up all the more the further into KenPom's analytics you go.

Gonzaga is currently second overall at Kenpom, which is where the Zags finished a year ago, too. Except last season's Zags would be a six-point favorite over this season's edition. Furthermore, 2020 Gonzaga's overall efficiency rating of 26.74 is more than a point worse than any number two has ever had at KenPom (which dates back to 2002). Baylor currently has the lowest overall efficiency rating of any number three team in the history of KenPom as well.

Let's go a little further down KenPom's current metrics, and take a look at 16th-ranked Michigan.

The Wolverines currently have an overall efficiency rating of 20.13 at the conclusion of the regular season. Here's how that compares with other teams who finished 16th in recent years:

2019: Wisconsin (21.94)
2018: Ohio State (21.16)
2017: UCLA (23.63)
2016: SMU (21.98)
2015: Iowa State (21.49)
2014: Pittsburgh (21.89)

Again, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a team rated 16th at KenPom with a lower efficiency rating than this year's Wolverines. Why is 2006 the last time college basketball was this watered down? That was the first year of the one-and-done rule, which explains that benchmark.

But what explains this season?

Last year the 2019 NBA Draft set a record with 86 underclassmen. Half of them went undrafted. That equates to over 40 high-level players who still had eligibility this season not currently playing college basketball. For example, Charles Matthews -- who went undrafted after suffering a torn ACL during pre-draft prep -- absolutely would've helped Michigan's wing depth and overall defensive performance this season. There's a multitude of college basketball programs this season missing a similar player, who's not in the NBA.

Finally, if there truly is unique parity this season, shouldn't that also mean that middle class in college basketball is stronger than past years?

The number 100 team currently at KenPom is UNLV, which has an overall efficiency rating of 7.22. That's the highest for the 100th-best team since 2016, and the fourth-highest for team 100 in the history of KenPom.

In other words, this season's unique parity is confirmed.

Therefore, when you're filling out your bracket a week from now, make sure to make at least some accommodation for the unique parity we saw this season. For it is highly unlikely a watered down regular season is going to lead to a chalky NCAA tournament.