Michigan Basketball Needs to Improve in This Area in Order to Beat Saint Louis

The Michigan Wolverines have advanced to the Round of 32 to take on the No. 9 seeded St. Louis Billikens on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo.

The No. 1 seeded Wolverines have been generally excellent on both sides of the ball all season, as shown by their regular season Big Ten title and posting a 31-3 record heading into the NCAA Tournament.

But for as good as Michigan has been in 2025-26, it hasn't been flawless. While the losses and games Michigan has struggled have been scarce, a general theme with the Wolverines when they play prolific three-point teams has been the team's inability to guard the perimeter effectively at times.

In both of Michigan's games against Wisconsin this season, an opponent the Wolverines went 1-1 against, the Wolverines allowed 31 three-pointers against the Badgers against a team that shot it at just over a 36% clip from deep this season.

Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May reacts to game play against the Howard Bison during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

During Michigan's win against Howard on Thursday in the team's NCAA Tournament opener, even though the Wolverines won comfortably, the Bison hit 10 of their last 11 three-pointers to end the first half to cut the deficit to four before the Wolverines clamped up on the defensive end of the floor in the second half.

Despite winning 101-80, defending the three ball isn't an ideal area to struggle in coming into a game against Saint Louis, a team that has shot it at a 40.2% rate from deep this season, which ranks second in college basketball.

Why Michigan needs to be weary of the three-ball

While defending the three-point line has been a slight weakness this season against specific opponents, it's not like it's been an area of liability, either.

After all, Dusty May's team has held teams to 30.8% from beyond the long line this year, which ranks 30th in college basketball. But in the last three games, the Wolverines have allowed opponents to shoot at a 42% clip from three. If that happens against the Billikens, Michigan could find itself in a dog fight.

The good news is, Michigan, even with the loss of backup point guard LJ Cason for the season, is still a deep team that can run a variety of different lineups that equips the team to defend the three-pointer at a more efficient rate.

But sometimes, it's a give and take. While center Aday Mara's natural instincts are to defend the rim, sometimes it can be difficult for him to get out to the perimeter against big men who can shoot.

Aday Mara shoots — Michigan center Aday Mara (15) shoots a free throw against Howard during the second half of NCAA Tournament First Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Thursday, March 19, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Against Saint Louis big man Robbie Avila, Mara is going to be challenged as Avila shoots it at 42% from three. On the flip side, Mara has the advantage on offense himself with a dominant interior game, so it will be an interesting chess match between May and Saint Louis head coach Josh Schertz as they will be tasked with making adjustments based on how that matchup plays out.

Michigan's versatility allows to play Morez Johnson Jr. at the five and for the Wolverines to go a little smaller if needed, with Yaxel Lendeborg at the four and Roddy Gayle Jr. at the three if the Billikens really start causing trouble from beyond the arc.

And it's not just Avila who can spray it from deep for Saint Louis, as seven of the Billikens' nine rotational players shoot it at a 36% of better clip from three, including guards Dion Brown and Trey Green shooting 39.7% and 45% from deep, respectively.

If Michigan is up to the challenge on the defensive end, it could impose its will on the offensive end of the floor as the game wears on, but it will all start for the Wolverines with the energy on defense and desire to close out on shooters.