Analysis: What Chaundee Brown's Commitment Means For Michigan Hoops
How big of an addition is Chaundee Brown for 2020-21?
Potentially huge.
The 6-5, 220-pound Brown saw 66% of his minutes at the '3' for Wake Forest and 7.0% of his minutes at the '4' for the Demon Deacons last season, contributing 12.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game in 23 games - he missed eight contests due to ankle and calf injuries.
Brown also had an effective field-goal percentage of 50.2%, shot 83.1% from the free-throw line, 50.6% from twos, and 32.8% from threes.
Those are comparable, and in some cases, better than the numbers from Michigan rising sophomore Franz Wagner, who is expected to start at the '3' this upcoming season after earning All-Big Ten All-Freshman first-team honors. Wagner had an effective field-goal percentage of 53.4%, shot 83.3% from the charity stripe, 61.0% from twos, and 31.1% from behind the arc.
If Brown receives immediate eligibility either because he left Wake Forest after his coach was fired (strong grounds for an NCAA waiver) or because the NCAA votes on and announces in the next 48 hours that all first-time transfers in football, basketball and hockey will receive immediate eligibility, he can pair up with Wagner to form a formidable duo at the '3'.
He also gives U-M some additional depth at the '4', and potentially allows for Wagner to get some minutes at the '2' in an effort to spell senior Eli Brooks.
If Brown doesn't receive immediate eligibility and neither does Nojel Eastern, the Purdue transfer, Michigan would still be short-staffed at the '3' this year, relying on freshmen Terrance Williams and Jace Howard to offer a few minutes of respite to Wagner.
However, most industry analysts do expect Brown to receive clearance because his departure is directly tied to his coach getting canned.
How good is the Michigan rotation in 2020-21 if Brown is cleared to play?
What a difference a few weeks can make. On May 5, with the third Wolverine departure since the season's conclusion, that of wing Cole Bajema, we wrote that Michigan's roster had fallen in the ranks of the Big Ten to fourth or lower, a top eight that would include at least two true freshmen and a grad-transfer (Mike Smith) from the Ivy League. A promising transfer no doubt, but someone that had played just three games a year ago against Power 5 teams.
Now take a look at Michigan's roster - one that ranks in the Big Ten's top three.
| Positions | Freshmen | Sophomores | Juniors | Seniors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 & 2 | Zeb Jackson | Adrien Nunez | Mike Smith | |
Eli Brooks | ||||
3 | Terrance Williams | Franz Wagner | Nojel Eastern* | |
Jace Howard | Chaundee Brown* | |||
4 | Brandon Johns | Isaiah Livers | ||
5 | Hunter Dickinson | Austin Davis | ||
*4th-year players eligible for either 2020-21 or 2021-22.
While Smith and freshman Zeb Jackson must prove themselves at the Power 5 level, a core of Brooks, Wagner and senior Isaiah Livers gives Michigan one of the best trios in the country. Surround that with Smith, Brown, junior Brandon Johns Jr., senior Austin Davis, Jackson and freshman Hunter Dickinson, and the Wolverines can go nine-deep, perhaps, better than any team they will face.
That says nothing of Eastern, who could opt for the pros (the NBA Draft or the G-League) if he does not receive immediate eligibility, as some reports indicate.
With or without Eastern, Michigan's rotation should be good enough for Juwan Howard to challenge for a Big Ten title in his second season, and would, on paper anyway, give the Maize and Blue a roster that should set the Sweet 16 as its base-level expectations for 2020-21.
It certainly felt like a punch to the gut of Michigan fans when five-stars Josh Christopher and Isaiah Todd ultimately went elsewhere - Christopher to Arizona State and Todd to the G-League - instead of signing with U-M, as predicted, but if both Brown and Eastern suit up for the Wolverines, it's a wash.
Neither was as hyped coming out of high school as Christopher and Todd, but they were both top recruits (Brown No. 36 in the 2017 class with offers from Kansas, UConn, Indiana, Maryland, LSU and Wake Forest among others; and Eastern No. 61 in the 2017 class with offers from Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Purdue among others) and each has three years experience of college hoops, giving both a chance to be instant impact players.
Since Christopher and Todd were always seen as one-year players, Brown and Eastern, both seniors if eligible instantly, can fill those voids.
What does Brown's arrival mean for Michigan's future scholarship situation?
As seen in the chart above, if both Brown and Eastern are granted eligibility, Michigan will lose six seniors after the 2020-21 campaign. Additionally, Wagner is expected to go pro after his sophomore season. That would be seven scholarship exits and a lot of critical pieces for Howard to replace.
If Eastern is denied eligibility, the chances he would sit out a year to delay his pro aspirations is unlikely. Brown is the wildcard. He might agree to the redshirt knowing he could be the star of Michigan's 2021-22 team - and he's not yet ready for the NBA - but, again, most insiders expect him to play this season.
U-M should have a solid foundation to build around in two seasons, Dickinson, Williams, and Jackson moving into prominent roles with Johns the senior leader, but the pressure is on Howard to sign a dynamic class of five or more while likely adding grad-transfers that can lend Michigan experience and instant production.
That's why 2020-21 is such an important year for U-M hoops. The program certainly had a successful first year under Howard - likely qualifying for the NCAA tournament as a 6 seed - and a big second season, contending for a conference crown, a second weekend in the NCAAs (and possibly more) will continue momentum on the recruiting trail for 2021 and 2022 recruits, mitigating any struggles Michigan could face in Year 3 with such a depleted roster.
Overall, there is a lot to like about Michigan's future under Howard. The program lost key players in transfers David DeJulius, Colin Castleton and Bajema, but has filled them with the third- (Brown) and 10th-most (Eastern) talented transfers on the market and in Smith, the No. 11 grad-transfer available.
