Best Bet to Make in the Big Game Between the Oklahoma Sooners and Michigan Wolverines

Michigan escaped with a last-second win over the Western Michigan Broncos in their season opener. It took a dramatic hail mary for the Wolverines to emerge victorious in their opening game of the 2026 season. Oklahoma on the other hand smoked UTEP 51-0 and looked very much the part of a really good college football team. However; both teams are 1-0, so it sets up a big early season matchup for these two teams.

In terms of best bets so far this season, I was correct in my assessment last week with the Broncos easily covering the +27.5 point spread. Let's dive into what the power ratings suggest about the matchup between the Sooners and Wolverines below.

ESPN's FPI

ESPN's FPI has Michigan power rated at an 11.8. That is good for 21st in the country, with the projected win-loss record being 7-5. The same FPI has Oklahoma power rated at a 19.2, good for 11th in the country with a projected record of 8-4.

In terms of trends, Michigan dropped six spots for their performance last week, and Oklahoma rose up by one spot.

Projected spread according to FPI

With Michigan having a power rating of 11.8 and Oklahoma being at a 19.2, that means that on a neutral field you would make Oklahoma a 7.4 point favorite on average.

Given that this game is in Ann Arbor, you have to account for home field advantage. Typical for a Big Ten team that would range somewhere between 1-5 points depending on the strength of the home team and the typical crowd noise at that stadium. For this game I would assume Michigan fans would be pretty riled up for it, so I would make home field advantage be worth three points for this matchup.

That would mean you take the 7.4 point Oklahoma margin on a neutral field and subtract out the three point home field advantage in favor of the Wolverines and it would make the game a 4.4 projected spread based on ESPN's FPI.

Oklahoma Sooners defenders bring down Michigan's Jordan Marshall — Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Robert Spears-Jennings and Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Alex Shieldnight bring down Michigan Wolverines running back Jordan Marshall | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Best Bet

DraftKings sportsbook currently has this at a -5.5 point spread in favor of the Sooners right now. With a projected spread based on ESPN's FPI of 4.4, that would mean there's about 1 point of value according to the FPI on the Wolverine side.

For the best bet in this game I'm actually going to disagree with the model. I do think Michigan will look much improved from their performance last week but I don't think a team can clean up that much in just one week. Oklahoma is a legitimate SEC title contender in my opinion and I just don't believe Michigan is on that level right now.

I think Michigan's defense will keep them in the game for a while but eventually the lack of successful drives on offense will start to add up and the dam will eventually break. I have the Sooners taking this game by a score of 24-13, so for my best bet I would take the Sooners +5.5 on the road in Ann Arbor.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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