Can Michigan Football Have a Successful Season Without Contending for a Championship?

You know all the words and phrases by now.

Those who stay, will be champions. The standard is the standard in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The Wolverines are proud members of the Big Ten Conference in pursuit of national championships.

If that is the standard, then Michigan has failed each of the last two years and are in the midst of trying to bounce back from a 9-3 season that was nothing more than empty calories under Sherrone Moore.

Kyle Whittingham was brought in to clean up the mess left behind by Moore, but that is not going to change the fact that Michigan remains in pursuit of one thing.

That can still be true, while understanding what is realistic for the 2026 season.

Is Michigan going to go undefeated? Probably not. Can they compete for a conference title? It’s possible. There is some squinting required to see if Michigan could do that. In the first year of the Whittingham era, the way success is defined, probably has to look a little different.

CBS Sports recently ran a bowl projection that saw Michigan miss out on the College Football Playoff and the New Years Six Bowl games.

That would mean that Michigan likely finished the year with more than the two losses that are likely allowable to get them into the postseason.

An appearance in the Music City Bowl in Nashville likely has Michigan with a minimum of three or four losses. Could that happen, and Michigan’s first season under Whittingham feel like a success?

The Gauntlet

Michigan’s schedule last season did them a lot of favors. Most of their tough games were at home, and there were not a lot of tough games. They had to play a night game at Oklahoma, at USC, and finish the season against Ohio State at home.

In terms of tough games, that was really all Michigan had on their schedule a season ago. The problem, of course, was that Michigan lost all three of those games. That gave them wins in non conference games against non-competitive opponents. Their best win of the season was likely a home victory over a mediocre Washington team, or a road win over Nebraska.

That’s not going to inspire a lot of confidence.

This year is different. Michigan’s schedule ramps up immediately. Iowa is their first opponent in conference play.

Once the calendar turns to October is where things start to get interesting.

There’s a two game home stretch at the end of the month where Michigan will play a new Penn State team who has reloaded looking to make a run at the playoff.

The following week is a date against the defending national champions.

November see Michigan play Michigan State at home along with Oregon and Ohio State on the road.

Between Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State, that’s three games against top ten opponents in conference play alone. Toss in Penn State if you want to call them a contender, and Oklahoma, that’s five games against potential playoff contenders.

What Can Be Successful?

Let’s say Michigan loses all of the games against potential playoff contenders. That puts them at 7-5, and the season is certainly not looked at fondly.

It feels safe to say that Michigan is probably not winning all five of the aforementioned games either.

Is there world, however, that exists where Michigan had a successful season, even if they have a worse record than they had a season ago?

The answer is yes. As distasteful as that might sound to those with the highest of standards, expecting championship contention in year one of a reset is not realistic. It’s not impossible, but it’s not realistic either.

If Michigan were to go 8-4 with losses to Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Oklahoma, it would certainly be disappointing.

Winning the big games is why the top players come to Michigan. Nobody remembers the win over Bowling Green in September of 2023. They all remember Rod Moore’s interception to knock off Ohio State in November of 2023.

The moral of the story is that Michigan has to prove itself competitive in games against those four teams above. That would be a step in the right direction from the 2025 season, where they were not competitive in their three biggest games. All of those turned into losses.

Furthermore, they have to win at least one. A 9-3 season with a signature win would do far more for the program than last year’s empty calories 9-3 team. It could also put Michigan on the cusp of a playoff appearance.

In the first year of what is essentially a reset year? That’s a win. Similar to the 2015 season, which was Jim Harbaugh’s first season as the head coach.

They were more competitive, even if the signature wins did not follow.

Michigan can have a similar path this year, but they have to find a way to win one game that matters.

College football is a tradition-filled sport. But tradition is being broken every day in CFB.

Both Tennessee and Alabama agreed to wear their 'home' jerseys in each of the next two seasons when playing each other.

It's time for #Michigan and OSU to turn back the clock and do… pic.twitter.com/3H14qvbv1w
— Trent Knoop (@TrentKnoop) August 20, 2026

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