Josh Pate predicts winner of Michigan-Ohio State game

The No. 15 Michigan Wolverines take on No. 1 Ohio State in the 121st edition of The Game this Saturday at Noon EST on FOX.

This year's version of the rivalry has high stakes as a win for the Wolverines could mean a berth in the College Football Playoff in Sherrone Moore's second year as the head man.

National college football analyst Josh Pate made his prediction for The Game on his show on Tuesday night.

Let's dive into what Pate said about the matchup.

Last year's prediction

In 2024, Michigan shocked the college football world by going into Columbus as a 20+ point underdog and pulling off the unthinkable and came away with a 13-10 victory at The Shoe against the eventual national champions.

Pate, like almost all analysts across the sport, picked Ohio State to win The Game with the utmost confidence. When that result didn't turn out the way everyone expected, Pate was shocked and described the impact that had.

"I cannot overstate the mental impact that this had on me last year, that this had on Ohio State last year," Pate said. "Firstly. for terrible reasons. And then, I'm a firm believer it catapulted them into discovering a whole new version of themselves, which was good enough to win a national championship. Michigan's won four straight—I don't know if you've heard that this week, but they've won four straight. But last year was the most inexplicable result out of this entire rivalry as long as I've been a coherent adult human being watching it."

Michigan Wolverines quarterback Davis Warren (16) celebrates a 13-10 win over Ohio State Buckeyes at the end of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. | Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Pate's preview

The stat that many people who pay close attention to this rivalry is the one where the team that wins the rushing battle has won this matchup 23 consecutive times.

Pate said he again believes that winner of The Game in 2025 will come out on top in the rushing battle.

"So, tell me one thing about The Game. Who has more rushing yards? Because I'm going to tell you, that's probably who wins the game," Pate said. "And the reason I'm going to say that—another paper popper of a stat here, is total rushing yards, the team that wins that, the little mini battle within the battle, has won the game since 2001. Every game since 2001 has been won by the team that had more rushing yards."

"Run defense in this game—Ohio State (No. 2), Michigan (No. 11). It's tough to come by. Rushing offenses in this game—Ohio State in the 50's, Michigan No. 10. That's Michigan's shot—I mean, Michigan has got to be able to do it, and they can do it with the quarterback as well. Obviously, no Justice Haynes for Michigan. Jordan Marshall, yes. Bryce Underwood I think's gotta get some stuff done with his legs in this game."

Despite Pate believing the Wolverines have a chance with their run game, he believes the Buckeyes "hold all the keys" in the matchup.

"But I'm going to say this again, like I said last year. Ohio State holds all the keys here," Pate said. "It sounds a little disrespectful to Michigan, but I mean it in a couple of ways. The first set of keys that Ohio State holds is to all of college football. Because if Ohio State is as good as they have looked, very few teams can compete with them. on a neutral field. Which is what the playoff would be. So there's a very, very small handful of teams that could ever hope to win the national championship. If Ohio State is even just a smidge overrated, of if they're outright fraudulent—which I doubt, but humor me here. Then there are like 8 to 10 teams who could win it all."

Ohio State Buckeyes against Michigan Wolverines at Ohio Stadium on November 24, 2012. | Brooke LaValley/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"So, Ohio State holds all the cards to the College Football Playoff in terms of variance. But they also hold the cards here, because their Plan A has worked all season. Like, if you've watched Ohio State games, when have they had to deviate? When has the fastball not worked? They've been able to throw that thing 98 with pretty much pinpoint accuracy all year, and it doesn't really matter. If you can paint in the upper 90's, you don't need a devastating 12 to 6 curveball. You don't need a changeup that falls off a cliff at the lower black. You don't' need all of that."

"But that doesn't mean they don't have it. So, they could have all of that. They could be the worst of both worlds for opposing teams out there, where Ohio State hasn't had to do that, but when they have to do it, they will be able to do it."

Pate also mentioned OSU;s defense is No. 1 in the nation at allowing the fewest number of 30-yard or more runs, as the Wolverines have thrived off of explosive runs this season.

Pate's prediction

The analyst's "Pate State" model predicts Ohio State coming out on top comfortably, but Pate said he isn't going to be proven wrong in this rivalry again and has to go with the Wolverines.

"I picked this game the moment last year's game ended," said Pate. "I am not going to be proven wrong in this game by Ohio State losing again. So, I think Ohio State's the better team. Model thinks Ohio State wins and wins comfortably, Everything about my breakdown of the game leans me toward Ohio State. I couldn't care less until further notice. Michigan will win this game. Michigan covers, Michigan moneyline. And look, if that's what it takes for Ryan Day and company to win this game, is for me to pick against them, then I'll be happy to take the fall for you. I'm just saying, I've tried to ride with you for the past four years and you guys have done this to me. Michigan has done this to me as well."

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