Why Michigan is built to beat Ohio State once again

The Michigan Wolverines (9-2) come into The Game with their season on the line as it relates to having the chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff.

Sherrone Moore's team comes into the matchup with No. 1 Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog (as of Monday afternoon), which is somewhat familiar territory for the Wolverines after being a 20+ point underdogs heading into the final week of November last season before the Maize and Blue pulled off the shocking upset.

In fact, even though Michigan has won four in a row in the series dating back to 2021, the Wolverines have been underdogs in three of those four matchups.

The question is whether Michigan can continue the trend of being an underdog and still come out on top, despite OSU likely having the more talented players at the skill position.

The answer to that question is that the Wolverines absolutely can come out on top in The Game for the fifth consecutive season. In fact, Michigan is built to beat the Buckeyes this season and certainly has what it takes from a matchup standpoint.

Here's why:

Michigan's physical run game could give Ohio State's defense trouble

Before we fully dive into where the Wolverines can take advantage of matchups, let me say this: This is not a prediction of The Game's outcome (yet), and is certainly not an endorsement of a belief that Michigan will win in any sort of blowout fashion. The Buckeyes are too good all the way around, especially on the defensive side of the ball, for that to happen.

Michigan running back Jordan Marshall (23) runs against Purdue defensive back Tony Grimes (0) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, November 1, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

However, styles make fights and matchups matter, and I do believe the Wolverines' style is one that is fully capable of giving OSU trouble.

The first matchup element of why I believe this young Michigan team is built to beat OSU is because of its brand of running game.

Is that to say the Buckeyes can't stop the run? Not at all. In fact, Matt Patricia's unit has been one of the nation's best in stopping the run, allowing just an average of 2.6 yards per carry, which ranks third best in college football.

As difficult as it is to put much weight into Week 1, when the Buckeyes played Texas in late August, the Longhorns are probably the most comparable team to Michigan OSU has played when comparing talent and overall success.

In that game, even though OSU was outstanding in shutting down Arch Manning, the Longhorns were able to sustain several drives in that game and ended up running the ball for 166 yards on 37 attempts (4.5 yards per rush).

Ohio State really buttoned up its run defense since that point, but it's not as if they have played a rushing attack nearly as good as what Michigan possesses, even with Jordan Marshall as Michigan's lead back and not Justice Haynes.

The Buckeyes faced Penn State earlier this month, who has ran the ball pretty well this season, but at that point, the Nittany Lions' season had gone south and QB Drew Allar was done for the season.

Texas' rushing attack in SEC play turned out to be pretty mediocre, which in retrospect, makes it more noteworthy that they were able to have some success on the ground against OSU. If Michigan can emulate some of the success Texas had running the ball against the Buckeye front, gain tough yards, keep the chains moving and sustain long drives, that will be a recipe for success against the dominant Buckeye defense.

Ohio State's running game isn't its top strength on offense

The Buckeyes have had a good season running the football as freshman Bo Jackson looks like a star in the making with a bright future ahead of him.

They average 4.7 yards per carry as a team, ranking 34th in college football while Michigan is 10th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing three yards per carry.

Michigan defensive line coach Lou Esposito talks to defensive lineman Trey Pierce (95) during the second half against Michigan State at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The team that has won the rushing battle has won The Game 23 straight times, and if the Wolverines are able to control both Ohio State's rushing attack and eat up yards of their own on the ground, this one will get really tricky for OSU.

On the flip side, one could make the argument that against the best rushing offense the Wolverines faced, which was USC, the Wolverines got torched—which would be a fair argument. So, maybe Ohio State's ground game will be good enough against Michigan's front, which would spell trouble for the Wolverines.

But if Michigan can hold serve against the run, which I think Wink Martindale's unit will be able to do, they can then put OSU's offense in obvious passing situations where the pass rushers can try to pin their ears back and get to QB Julian Sayin.

OSU's most explosive playmakers may be banged up

As mentioned, Haynes, Michigan's most explosive playmaker, likely remains out for The Game, but Marshall has stepped in without missing a beat and may be the more suitable running back from a matchup perspective against OSU's front with his power and ability to fight through contact.

But on the other side, OSU's big hitters on offense mostly come from its passing game when Sayin connects on big plays with Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith.

The two electric wideouts have combined for 1,613 receiving yards this season with 17 touchdowns. If they happen to not play against the Wolverines, OSU has Brandon Innis, the team's third leading receiver, who can step in as the No. 1, and tight end Max Klare has been a consistent target all season.

But if Tate and/or Smith were out, that would be a blow to the Buckeyes' offense and would limit their ceiling on what they might be able to accomplish against the Michigan defense. If both do end up playing, will they be at 100%?

Nov 15, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) makes a one handed first down catch as UCLA Bruins defensive back Andre Jordan Jr. (2) defends during the first quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

At full strength (and maybe even not at full strength), Smith and Tate are threats to give the Michigan secondary, a unit that has been vulnerable to giving up the big play at times, a great challenge. But if Sayin can't try to push it down the field on a consistent basis to his playmakers, that makes the challenge difficult for the OSU offense.

— Sign up for the Michigan Daily Digest newsletter for more free coverage from Michigan Wolverines on SI —

The good and the bad from Michigan's 45-20 win over Maryland

Joel Klatt explains why a 10-2 resume for Michigan would prevail in playoff discussions