Michigan's Potential Record In 2020
Every Michigan fan does it every summer.
"Let's look at Michigan's schedule. Win. Win. Win. Win," etc. Before long, you just know that your beloved Wolverines are going to be 12-0 or 11-1 at season's end.
But it never goes that way. In fact, Michigan hasn't won 11 games in a season since Brady Hoke's first season in 2011. It's only happened 11 times in the grand history of Michigan's program. Predicting the Wolverines to win 11 games this year just isn't smart. Could it happen? Sure, but it's not likely.
When you look at Michigan's schedule, I see four different categories. Guaranteed wins, likely wins, 50/50 games and likely loss. Here's where I put each Michigan opponent:
Guarantee Wins
Ball State (H)
Arkansas State (H)
Rutgers (A)
Likely Wins
Michigan State (A)
Purdue (H)
Maryland (H)
Indiana (H)
50/50 Games
Washington (A)
Wisconsin (H)
Penn State (H)
Minnesota (A)
Likely Losses
Ohio State (A)
The Michigan players should be able to get out of bed and play without a coaching staff and get to 7-5. Michigan is more or as talented as every team on the schedule except for Ohio State. To me, that means if everything goes exactly right for Michigan, 11-1 is attainable. I still see no scenario where U-M can beat Ohio State, especially in Columbus. With four 50/50 games, 8-4 or 9-3 are the more realistic records.
I talked about all of this with Jack Scheel and Justin Roh of the Blue by 90 podcast and they give their input as well.
