Best bet in the Michigan vs. Michigan State game

Most sports books currently have the spread at -14.5 in favor of the Wolverines, who will travel to East Lansing this Saturday night to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Michigan thus far is 5-2 overall, and 3-1 in the Big Ten Conference. Michigan State is 3-4 overall, and 0-4 in conference play. Michigan State is also in the midst of a 4-game losing streak, all against Big Ten opponents. It has been a tough part of their schedule, as they've lost at USC and at Nebraska before coming back home and putting up a stinker and losing at home to UCLA. Then last weekend they went on the road again and lost at Indiana. The home loss to UCLA in particular, the Spartans had to have if they hope to make bowl eligibility, as the schedule from here on out is manageable but not easy.

Michigan State has really struggled this season, in particular on defense. In Big Ten play, they've surrendered 45 points to USC, then 38 each to Nebraska, UCLA, and Indiana. Not all of those offenses are exactly juggernauts either. KFord Ratings currently has their defense at 97th in the country from a power ratings perspective. For reference, the same metric has Michigan at 12th on defense.

Things are better for the Spartans on offense, where they rate 65th, compared to Michigan's offensive power rating of 39th in the country. Aidan Chiles has been better this season with taking care of the football but Michigan State still hasn't been a very consistent offense as a whole. Nick Marsh is a star wide receiver for them out wide and their running back room is pretty good, but their offensive line has been quite bad this year and it hasn't really allowed them to get anything clicking since they started facing conference opponents.

If you combine the two power ratings, it would put Michigan at 14th in the country as a 17.4, which means on average they would be 17.4 points better than the average D1 college football team. The same set of power ratings has Michigan State at a -0.5, meaning on average, they are a half point worse than the average D1 college football team from a power ratings perspective. If you factor in home field advantage, which for this game I would make 2 points given the in-state nature of this game, that would put this spread right around -16 in favor of the Wolverines. The current sports book number as stated previously, is -14.5 for Michigan so according to this set of power ratings it shows some slight value on the Wolverines' side.

This game doesn't always make sense however; so I understand why some might be wary to bet on it. I just don't think this Michigan State team is very good and even though I'm sure they'll give it all they got this Saturday, Michigan really needs this win too to continue their ascent towards reaching all of their season's goals. Michigan State's season hinges on being competitive in this game, and Head coach Jonathan Smith's job might be on the line as well, I just don't see how the Spartans can remain competitive here. In Conference play they've been surrendering over 40 points on average while scoring an average of 21. I think the Wolverines cruise in this one to a 35-17 win so I'll lay the -14.5 points with the Wolverines.

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