Michigan Football Is Overachieving and Underachieving At the Same Time

Michigan is keeping pace with some of the best programs in the country in one area, but falling well behind them in another.

Michigan football has been putting guys in the NFL at a nice clip a little bit before, and ever since Jim Harbaugh has been the head coach. That's obviously a great thing for those individual players, speaks to the coaching staff's ability to develop players in at least one area (NFL readiness) and certainly looks great on a recruiting poster. But if Michigan is pumping out NFL-caliber players as well as almost anyone in the nation, why hasn't the program been winning at a higher level?

When looking at recruiting classes from 2014-2018, which ultimately turned into draft classes from 2017-2021, only LSU, Ohio State and Alabama have produced more NFL Draft picks than Michigan. That's it. That's very impressive considering that those three programs, along with Florida, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, USC and Florida State, have recruited better than Michigan over that same stretch of time. That makes Michigan the biggest overachiever in the country when it comes to putting guys in the league. The graphic below from collegefootballdata.com illustrates those numbers.

So if Michigan is pumping out NFL talent more than all but three programs, why have they been just a notch or two above mediocre under Harbaugh? 

First of all, not all draft picks are created equal. If one team has five players drafted in the first round, and another team has five players drafted in the sixth round, it's fair to assume that the first team is more talented and better on the field despite having the same number of players drafted. The first three rounds of recent NFL drafts are full of players from Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU and Georgia. A handful Wolverines have been picked in the first round — nine total since 2008 — but not enough to compete with the big boys.

Secondly, not all positions are as impactful on the field. In today's world of college football, offense is king. Dating back to 2008, Michigan has had just one quarterback, running back or wide receiver taken as a top-100 pick. That was Devin Funchess at No. 41 overall in 2015. That means that for whatever reason, Michigan either isn't recruiting and landing the right kinds of skill players, or they aren't developing them correctly.

Which brings me to my third point. Michigan's skill players simply aren't being utilized effectively, therefore, they aren't developing into next-level talents. Among 33 five-stars from the 2017 class, 11 entered the 2020 NFL Draft. Five went in Round 1, four went in Round 2, one went in Round 4 and one went in Round 6. The sixth-round pick was Michigan's Donovan Peoples-Jones. The former No. 1 wide receiver in the country never had a 100-yard game while at Michigan. Nico Collins, another borderline five-star player, averaged less than three receptions per game while at Michigan. He's not exactly walking into the best situation with the Houston Texans, but he has the skill set to do better in the NFL than he did in Ann Arbor. Those are just two of the more recent, most obvious examples, but there are a few more. 

There are too many examples from all three points over the last five or six years. That's why Michigan's recruiting success and NFL production hasn't turned into marquee wins. Obviously some of the issues predate Harbaugh by quite a bit, but when you refer to the graphic above, those specific numbers come from the meat of Harbaugh's tenure. 

On some levels, it feels like Michigan is close to being as good as some of the best teams in the country, and there are certainly some good things happening within the program in recent years and right now. On other levels, it's like Michigan is not even playing the same sport as the elite teams. Jim Harbaugh has made a lot of changes this offseason to fix the issues. Come September, we'll see if everything starts to click.