Does Tom Izzo and Michigan State have a talent gap problem in the Big Ten?
When the Big Ten Conference announced its All-Conference selections on Tuesday, it gave a painfully clear picture as to why Michigan State has found itself in the middle of the league standings for each of the last two seasons.
For the second consecutive season, Michigan State had just one All-Big Ten representative, and in both seasons the Spartan selected was a third teamer — Aaron Henry in 2020-21 and Gabe Brown in 2021-22.
The Spartans had zero honorable mention All-Big Ten selections alongside Henry a season ago, though Malik Hall did earned the recognition this season.
This lack of representation among the best players in the Big Ten is in stark contrast from the 2017-18 through 2019-20 seasons, when Michigan State won or shared three straight regular season conference championships.
In 2017-18, when the Spartans won the league outright, Miles Bridges was a first team All-Big Ten selection, Jaren Jackson Jr. won Big Ten Freshman of the Year and was a third team selection alongside Cassius Winston. In addition, Nick Ward was a third team selection by the league's media, and an honorable mention from the league's coaches.
In 2018-19, Winston won Big Ten Player of the Year and was a first team selection. Nick Ward was a unanimous third team selection, while Matt McQuaid and Kenny Goins were both honorable mention and Xavier Tillman was the Big Ten's Sixth Man of the Year.
In 2019-20, Winston was once again a first team selection and Tillman made another leap in his game to earn second team All-Big Ten, and was the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
Michigan State has lacked the high-end talent needed to compete at the top of the nation's best basketball conference in each of the last two seasons, and the results speak for themselves. Izzo and the Spartans have gone 20-20 in Big Ten play during that stretch — the worst two-year winning percentage in conference play for Michigan State since the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons.
How did this happen to a program that won or shared three consecutive Big Ten championships within the past five seasons?
There's two reasons: (1) Michigan State hasn't landed mega-talents in recruiting like Bridges or Jackson Jr., and (2) the best recruits Michigan State has landed haven't developed into high-end talents like Winston and Tillman, yet.
Let's look at the recruiting classes that make up this 2021-22 Michigan State roster:
2018 Recruiting class: Ranked No. 17 nationally, 4th in Big Ten
- Marcus Bingham Jr. (four-star, No. 66 overall)
- Foster Loyer (four-star, No. 96 overall)
- Gabe Brown (four-star, No. 101 overall)
- Aaron Henry (three-star, No. 140 overall)
- Thomas Kithier (three star, No. 161 overall)
In this class, Michigan State landed a gem in Henry, who would leave MSU after three season to declare for the NBA Draft. Two other players, Loyer and Kithier, struggled at the Big Ten level and transferred to Davidson and Valparaiso, respectively. Brown and Bingham Jr. developed into eventually starters, but only Brown has earned All-Big Ten honors.
2019 Recruiting class: Ranked No. 26 nationally, 2nd in Big Ten
- Rockett Watts (four-star, No. 39 nationally)
- Malik Hall (four-star, No. 61 nationall)
- Julius Marble (three-star, No. 223 nationally)
- Joey Hauser (transferred from Marquette)
The best player in the class, Watts, was a part-time starter for two seasons at Michigan State before transferring to Mississippi State. Hall as shown flashes of brilliance this season and can certainly be an All-Big Ten guy next year as a senior, if he can find that consistency that has eluded him all year. Hauser, likewise, has not been able to provide consistent production. Marble has developed into a solid contributor off the bench for the Spartans, but his ceiling appears to be below the All-Big Ten level.
2020 Recruiting class: Ranked No. 51 nationally, 8th in Big Ten
- Mady Sissoko (four-star, No. 41 overall)
- A.J. Hoggard (four-star, No. 81 overall)
Sissoko has played sparingly through two seasons at MSU, averaging just five minutes per game. With his raw athleticism and strength, he has shown signs that he could be an excellent low-post defender in the Big Ten, but Sissoko has not shown much on the offensive end of the floor through his sophomore season. Hoggard has taken strides as a sophomore, and looks like he could be Michigan State' starting point guard for the next two seasons. He's big, strong, physical and is at his best in the open court. Hoggard can get loose with the basketball, and he has butted heads with Izzo over his turnovers, but he also has one of the best assist rates in all of college basketball. Hoggard is a guy who, with further maturity and development, could be an All-Big Ten guy.
2021 Recruiting class: Ranked No. 12 nationally, 2nd in Big Ten
- Max Christie (five-star, No. 20 overall)
- Jaden Akins (four-star, No. 53 overall)
- Pierre Brooks (four-star, No. 61 overall)
- Tyson Walker (transfer from Northeastern)
Christie has taken his fair share of heat this season for not necessarily living up to the "five-star hype", but the freshman has showed his talent level when he earned five "Big Ten Freshman of the Week" awards early this season. Christie hasn't shot the ball as well as he was expected to this season, but he has a pure shooting stroke and there's little doubt in my mind that he will improve drastically as a sophomore next season. Izzo has also routinely pointed out Christie's defense as "better than expected". The freshman has all the capabilities to be a All-Big Ten player.
We haven't seen much from Akins this season, in terms of box score production, but I like his physical tools and the way he goes about the game. He's got excellent speed and quickness, and is a plus-defender on the perimeter. Akins shooting numbers are better than Christie's, though he isn't asked to do nearly as much on the offensive end as his fellow freshman, nor does he garner the same level of attention from opposing defenses. Still, there's a lot to like about Akins game. The question is, how big of a leap will he make between his freshman and sophomore seasons.
We haven't seen enough of Brooks to know where he will fit in on this roster next season and moving forward. I can't give an informed opinion on his floor or ceiling yet. Walker, meanwhile, will have another year of eligibility with Michigan State next season, and I believe his best role is as a scorer off the bench. Walker never seemed comfortable orchestrating the Spartans' offense as the starting point guard. Next season, he shouldn't be asked to do that. Just let him come in off the bench and be a bucket-getter. If that role is emphasized to him throughout this upcoming offseason, I think we'll see him be more willing to look for his own shot in 2022-23.
That's where Michigan State's roster is at right now. The Spartans have some young players who show promise, but development will be key this offseason.
Assuming each of MSU's scholarship seniors — Brown, Bingham Jr. and Hauser — have played their final games in a Spartan uniform, here are the players that Michigan State is projected to have on scholarship next season:
- Malik Hall (Senior, projected starter)
- Julius Marble (Senior, backup or starter)
- Tyson Walker (Senior, backup)
- AJ Hoggard (Junior, starter)
- Mady Sissoko (Junior, role player)
- Max Christie (Sophomore, starter)
- Jaden Akins (Sophomore, backup)
- Pierre Brooks (Sophomore, role player)
- Jaxon Kohler (Freshman, four-star recruit, No. 65 nationally)
- Tre Holloman (Freshman, four-star recruit, No. 69 nationally)
Just looking at that list, I would give Hall, Hoggard and Christie the best odds at being All-Big Ten players next season. It wouldn't shock me to see Walker or Akins made that jump either. I don't know what to expect out of Kohler or Holloman once they arrive on campus.
The Spartans went 3-7 this season against teams tied with or above them in the Big Ten standings. Those teams combined for 14 All-Big Ten selections. On the flip side, Michigan State went 8-2 against the bottom-half of the league, where six teams combined to have just two All-Big Ten selections.
As stated above, in order to compete for Big Ten championships again, Michigan State needs more guys play at an All-Conference caliber in 2022-23.
