Michigan State Football’s 2020 Strength of Schedule
Tom Fornelli, from CBS Sports, ranked each Big Ten team by his predicted strength of schedule for the 2020 college football season.
He uses a unique formula to rank each squad, saying, "I rank all 130 teams using a statistical model that judges teams based on their performances in games. My opinion plays no role in it. History often gives us the best glimpse into the future, so I use rankings from the previous seasons to get an idea of how good any given team can expect to be in the next season. Teams are then given a weight that coincides with their past performance, and these weights are applied when going through each team's schedule."
"I then add or subtract additional weights based on where and when the game is being played. Road games are more difficult than home games, for example, and playing a Thursday night game after playing the previous Saturday adds a degree of difficulty," said Fornelli. "Playing eight straight weeks without a bye does, too. After inputting all of this information, a number is produced that shows a team's projected strength of schedule."
He ranked Michigan State No. 1 overall and gave them a score of 34.05%. Based on his formula, a team's overall rating is their strength of schedule put up against the average of 130 FBS universities.
When referring to the Spartans, he said, "Mel Tucker's first season at Michigan State was going to be difficult enough because of his late arrival and then spring practice being canceled. Then there's the schedule. There are no pushovers in the nonconference with a road trip to BYU, followed by home dates with Toledo and Miami (FL). In conference play, the Spartans play every team that could reasonably be considered a contender for the Big Ten title, not named Wisconsin. October is particularly brutal as it includes Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks sandwiched between games against Iowa, Indiana, and Minnesota. At least there's a bye before a road trip to Penn State?"
His total strength of schedule is listed below.
- Michigan State: 34.05% (Overall), 21.27% (Conference)
- Maryland: 31.89% (Overall), 18.71% (Conference)
- Michigan: 25.68% (Overall), 11.29% (Conference)
- Purdue: 25.01% (Overall), 10.49% (Conference)
- Iowa: 23.33% (Overall), 8.48% (Conference)
- Nebraska: 17.38% (Overall), 1.38% (Conference)
- Wisconsin: 15.92% (Overall), -0.36% (Conference)
- Minnesota: 12.57% (Overall), -4.37% (Conference)
- Penn State: 10.96% (Overall), -6.29% (Conference)
- Ohio State: 10.27% (Overall), -7.11% (Conference)
- Rutgers: 9.63% (Overall), -7.87% (Conference)
- Indiana: 8.35% (Overall), -9.40% (Conference)
- Northwestern: 3.92% (Overall), -14.69% (Conference)
- Illinois: -1.82% (Overall), -21.54% (Conference)
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