Michigan State Spartan Football vs Illinois: Scouting Report & Prediction
East Lansing, MI
Scouting Report and Prediction: Michigan State 4-4 vs. Themselves
A look at this week's opponent…
I have been writing my Scouting Report and Prediction for a long time. This is my 19th season. I have never done one like this. This week has nothing to do with Illinois with all due respect. This is about Michigan State.
It is about an offensive coaching staff that has not paid their coach back after he put the luster of his legacy on the line to keep them. It is about a brilliant coach who once crowed of his rivals, “Pride comes before the fall,” facing a plate of humility as his program crumbles in the fall of his career.
It is about a group of players still united together, but many frustrated by the head coach and the offensive staff. It is about pride.
Lovie Smith is an honorable man and a great coach. He is building Illinois football, but he doesn’t have the talent of the Spartans. This week they will look in the mirror, and they will be taking on themselves.
Can this program refocus and come together? Can they ignore the young men in orange and amid a complete failure resurrect the season to at least mediocrity?
When MSU has the ball…
The MSU offense stinks. It is unfair to blame the players. Most are repeating the mistakes that they made last year. That means they are not getting properly coached, and the fact that they do not have good enough players to replace them with is a clear indication of recruiting failure or the coaches' abilities to develop players.
Dantonio moved in like a Las Vegas gambler earlier this year with the luster of his legacy and fired no one. I said at the time I thought it was a massive mistake, but that Dantonio earned the right to do what he wanted. I also said, “But with the same accountability that he demands of his players, he must be held accountable if it doesn’t work.” It hasn’t. When I held him accountable, he had no answer, so like a skilled Washington DC politician, he attacked the question calling it, “A dumbass question.” Well, I was NOT the one who gambled his legacy on a staff that had failed the previous three years.
If Dantonio thought that was question was wrong he has many more coming, and much worse than that. He and I were once friends, he told me so. This is hard to watch. I care for him on a personal level. But he also told me once many years ago, "You have to call them as you see them." I am.
The offense is horrible. There is no player, no fan, and no coach to blame. Not having players to replace those who are not performing is not the problem. The problems rest at the feet of one person: the head coach. This is his offense. He owns it.
Tomorrow, MSU is one of two mediocre teams. But make no mistake, the Spartans have the talent to win this game easily. A win against a team they should beat is a sleeper. YAWN. MSU isn’t taking on the Illini defense; they are taking on themselves. The mistakes, the errors, the coaching. This is about them.
When MSU is on defense…
This starts with the MSU offense. Three and outs have led to exhaustion. The Spartans are better than the Illini offense. For the first nine years of the Dantonio era, he outcoached other teams. He alone won so many games for the Spartans.
What Dantonio has done for this school is amazing. But over the last four years, he turned on the cruise control, and the program is in trouble. Real trouble. If the Illini come into this game and win, Dantonio and his band of offensive coaches will have been outcoached again. Beaten by a better staff with less talent.
This Spartan defense has a lot of talent. They must dig deep. Illinois needs the Spartans to help to beat MSU. The Spartans need to stay disciplined and all will be well on that side of the ball.
These young men must understand that the NFL will watch this film. A maximum effort must be put forth for their future. Whether or not they trust the offense doesn’t matter. This is about them and their future. Attitudes up and ready to go. The MSU defense is superior to the Illini offense. This is about pride.
Intangibles…
Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, games are over. For those who don't remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two, that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one, that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus-four for the day. They want to get to a plus-five ratio at least every game. Teams that win the rule of five-win 91% of ball games.
Dumb mistakes, penalties, and booing home fans are all intangibles. Keep, however, many that are there happy, eliminate self-inflicted wounds, and hold on to the football. The Spartans are better, but the Illini have hope, they have confidence. MSU can’t let them stick around.
Extra Point…
I was told that some tickets for this game were on the internet for $1 — the smaller the crowd, the louder the statement. The Spartans will have all of the pressure on them. Do they crumble with Michigan on the horizon? Will they respond?
Prediction…
While I think that the offensive coaches are good men, outside of two of them, I do not think they are good coaches. The head coach is a once-great coach struggling to find vindication. The players are talented but frustrated. Is this the last stand of Dantonio?
If the Spartans lose on Saturday, I do not think they make a bowl game. I think the players dig deep and find a way to get the win. Make it 21-10 Spartans. If MSU loses, this season is over and let the ensuing circus put up its tent. The Spartan faithful are angry...at their beloved head coach.
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