Michigan State one of five Big Ten teams ranked in ESPN's updated FPI Top 25
With the conclusion of spring football right around the corner, Michigan State debuted at No. 16 in ESPN's updated Football Power Index rankings for 2022.
The Spartans are the fourth-highest ranked team in the Big Ten, trailing division foes Ohio State (No. 2), Michigan (No. 7) and Penn State (No. 12). Michigan State is projected for 8.0 wins and 4.1 losses in 2022.
The Big Ten East continues to be a gauntlet of a division. Only the SEC West, which has five teams in FPI's Top 20 and six in the Top 25, is considered a tougher division in college football.
With that in mind, FPI gives the Spartans a 3.5 percent chance to win the Big Ten East in 2022, a 2.2 percent chance to win the conference and a 1.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.
It's worth noting that the 2021 preseason FPI gave eventual Big Ten champion Michigan only a two percent chance to win the Big Ten East, 0.7 percent chance to win the conference and a 0.0 percent chance of making the CFP — all of which came to pass.
Speaking of last season's preseason projections, Michigan State debuted at No. 56 in FPI in 2021 before going on to easily have one of the most surprising seasons in all of college football. The Spartans won 10 games in the regular season after being projected to win just 5.6 by FPI.
While a No. 16 ranking and a projected 8-4 record could be viewed as disrespectful given the Spartans are coming off an 11-2 season in 2021, it's clear that FPI recognizes the difficulty of Michigan State's schedule.
In addition to playing each of the aforementioned Big Ten East opponents, the Spartans will host Wisconsin (No. 21 in FPI) and Minnesota (No. 40), as well as make road trips to Maryland (No. 43) and Washington (No. 50).
The 40-spot jump from 2021's to 2022's preseason rankings is a tell-tale sign of the immediate impact that head coach Mel Tucker has made in East Lansing. Michigan State played at a high level in 2021, and is now recruiting at a high level as well. Both will only continue to raise the Spartans' profile in future projections.
FPI is a predictive rating system that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results. It contains data from a program's previous four seasons, with emphasis on the most recent season.
The model also takes into account the number of returning starters on the offense and defense, with a returning quarterback providing the biggest boost of any player. A returning coach, and the strength of a program's recruiting class, including transfers, is also taken into account.
Here is where every Big Ten team is ranked in the 2022 preseason FPI:
- No. 2 — Ohio State
- No. 7 — Michigan
- No. 12 — Penn State
- No. 16 — Michigan State
- No. 21 — Wisconsin
- No. 35 — Nebraska
- No. 38 — Iowa
- No. 40 — Minnesota
- No. 43 — Maryland
- No. 44 — Purdue
- No. 66 — Indiana
- No. 73 — Illinois
- No. 82 — Northwestern
- No. 83 — Rutgers
