ESPN's Football Power Index predicts improved record for Michigan State

The Spartans look to bounce back from a disappointing 5-7 record last season...

Author:
Matthew Lounsberry
Publish date:
Apr 18, 2023 8:35 PM EDT

In this story:

Spring football is wrapping up across the country, and we're getting our first projections for the 2023 college season based on actual data and information.

ESPN has updated its Football Power Index, or FPI, and Michigan State comes in as the No. 31 team in those rankings. The Spartans are the fifth-highest ranked team in the Big Ten Conference, trailing East division foes Ohio State (No. 1), Michigan (No. 6) and Penn State (No. 10), as well as Wisconsin (No. 20) out of the West division.

With three teams ranked in the Top 10 in FPI, the Big Ten East is arguably the toughest division in college football. With that in mind, FPI gives Michigan State just a 0.4 percent chance of winning the division in 2023. The Spartans projected odds to win the Big Ten Conference sit as a measly 0.2 percent, and their College Football Playoff odds are 0.1 percent.

A big reason for that is the schedule which Michigan State will face this season, which is arguably the toughest in all of college football. In addition to the aforementioned teams ranked in FPI's Top 10, the Spartans will also host Washington (No. 21) and Maryland (No. 41), and face road games against Minnesota (No. 33) and Iowa (No. 37).

Against that tough schedule, FPI projects 6.9 wins and 5-1 losses for the Spartans, balancing out to a predicted record.

At this time last season, Michigan State debuted at No. 16 in the initial FPI rankings and were projected to go 8-4 in the 2022 season. Obviously, the Spartans failed to live up to those projections, but injuries to the team and other unforeseen circumstances contributed to MSU's 5-7 finish.

FPI is a predictive rating system that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results. It contains data from a program's previous four seasons, with emphasis on the most recent season.

The model also takes into account the number of returning starters on the offense and defense, with a returning quarterback providing the biggest boost of any player. A returning coach, and the strength of a program's recruiting class, including transfers, is also taken into account. Because of this, Michigan State is aided by its improved recruiting under Tucker.