Staff Predictions: Michigan State at No. 16 Illinois

The Spartans try to bounce back from a tough week off the field...

After a tumultuous week off the field, Michigan State returns to the gridiron today in another matchup against a ranked Big Ten opponent.

The Spartans will be without the eight players suspended following the postgame events inside the tunnel at Michigan Stadium, which only makes Saturday’s game against the No. 16 Illinois Fighting Illini more difficult.

It’s been a disappointing 2022 campaign for Michigan State (3-5 overall, 1-4 Big Ten), and the Spartans’ bowl eligibility hopes are hanging by a thread. Meanwhile, Illinois (7-1, 4-1) is having its best football season in at least 15 years, finding themselves ranked in the College Football Playoff committee rankings for the first time in school history.

The Spartans and the Fighting Illini will meet on the football field for the first time since 2019, which resulted in a 37-34 victory for Illinois. Michigan State holds a 26-19-2 all-time record in this series, including 12 of the last 15 dating back to 1995. The Fighting Illini, however, has won the last two games of this series.

The Spartans enter this game as a 16-point underdog. Michigan State must win two of their last four games to secure bowl eligibility. An upset victory today would be a massive step in that direction for MSU.

Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.

Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions

1.) Keon Coleman goes over 100 yards receiving

I’m going to keep going back to Keon Coleman in my bold predictions, because he’s been the Spartans’ best player on offense this season. Frankly, quarterback Payton Thorne should keep going back to his big wide receiver as well.

Coleman had 104 receiving yards in the first half last week against Michigan, before the Wolverines adjusted and bracketed him with a safety and cornerback throughout the remainder of the game.

You’ve got to assume that Coleman will be the No. 1 priority for Illinois’ defense, but the sophomore can make plays even when he’s getting all of the defense’s attention. Thorne must trust his big receiver to go make plays, even when he’s well covered.

2.) MSU covers the spread

The Spartans were hit hard, particularly on defense, by this week’s suspensions. However, Illinois’ offense is run-based and wouldn’t be labeled as explosive.

While I expect the Fighting Illini to find some success on the ground with tailback Chase Brown, I don’t know that Illinois has the receiving weapons to attack Michigan State’s secondary. Because of that, I think MSU keeps this one close and covers that nearly three-score point spread.

3.) Xavier Henderson, Kendall Brooks each record at least 8 tackles

As mentioned above, Illinois is going to pound the rock with their run game. Michigan State is thin at defensive end, so I’d be surprised if the Fighting Illini didn’t attack those edges with some stretch run plays.

Safeties Xavier Henderson and Kendall Brooks are going to have to come down in the box and help defend the run. Brooks was a great find for head coach Mel Tucker and has played well above expectations. Henderson, meanwhile, is still battling injury but his veteran instincts nearly always put him in the right spot and around the football.

Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions

1.) Michigan State holds Illinois to less than 150 yards passing

Illinois and Michigan are very similar offensively in the sense they want to establish the run. Michigan laid out the blueprint for that last week, and Illinois will try to replicate that. Illini running back Chase Brown is the focal point of the offense. Quarterback Tommy DeVito really only throws in obvious passing downs.

Michigan State looks like they have improved over the past two games defensively. Maybe part of that is because Michigan is a rival, but the Spartans showed the talent is here to defend the run. While MSU does have multiple starters out, I think that will make Illinois want to run the ball even more.

2.) Jayden Reed gets more than five targets

It felt like Reed was nonexistent last week against the Wolverines. He finished with only four catches for 17 yards against Michigan, but I think the Spartans will emphasize trying to get him the ball this week. Thorne’s numbers go exponentially up when Reed and Keon Coleman get more targets.

Offensive coordinator Jay Johnson wants to utilize tight ends more, but Thorne doesn’t utilize them that much. After a massive let down by the offense, I think they go back to what’s worked in the past.

3.) Michigan State has a scoreless half

Michigan State has had a difficult time getting drives started to start halves. One bad mistake feels like it leads to the whole unit unraveling. Illinois has been playing well on defense, only allowing over 14 points once this season.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michigan State have a bit of a hangover after losing a very emotional game that week, especially with what came after the game.

While I think Reed will be utilized more, Thorne still controls the offense, which is a problem right now. He has struggled against good opponents, with scoreless halves against Minnesota and Michigan. Against Ohio State, the Spartans didn’t score in the second half until backup Noah Kim’s drive.

If MSU has another scoreless half this week, it won’t be surprising, but it is another sign they may need to move on from Thorne.

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

Illinois is having its best season in at least 15 years, but the Fighting Illini have been the beneficiary of a fairly weak schedule. Head coach Bret Bielema has established his signature tough run game in Champaign, and has this program ahead of schedule.

With that said, I still question how good this Illinois team is. I do think the Fighting Illini have gotten better as the season has gone along, but this is still a team that lost to Indiana in Week 2.

If Michigan State was at full strength, I would have strongly considered picking the Spartans to pull off the upset today. However, I don’t know that this MSU team is going to look like following the suspensions. I also don’t know how motivated of a team we will see this week after the loss to rival Michigan. I’m going to go with Illinois for my pick, but I think MSU keeps it closer that expected. Score Prediction: Michigan State 17, Illinois 24

Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction

Michigan State’s defense has held its own in recent weeks, and last week’s game was a good representation of a ‘bend don’t break’ defense against a Top 5 team in the country.

While a ‘bend don’t break’ isn’t ideal, that’s what they’re stuck with. A decade ago under Mark Dantonio, the offense could get away with scoring 10 points and still win. This is not one of those teams, and far from it.

With multiple defensive starters out for the Spartans, Illinois will be able to run through them. This could potentially be Illinois’ biggest test so far this season, but I think Illinois will still come away with a win. Similar to the Michigan game, I think Illinois will win comfortably, but won’t pull away entirely. Score Prediction: Michigan State 13, Illinois 27