Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Indiana
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After three wins in their last four games, Michigan State (5-5 overall, 3-4 Big Ten) is one victory away from clinching a bowl berth.
A month ago, there was significant and reasonable doubt that the Spartans would reach the six-win requirement for bowl eligibility, but an upset road victory over Illinois reignited hope in East Lansing. After MSU handled business last week against Rutgers, the Spartans are once again favored this week when they host Indiana (3-7, 1-6).
Michigan State, which will be celebrating ‘Senior Day’ for the final home game of the year, enters this contest as a 10.5-point favorite over the Hoosiers.
While the first football game between Michigan State and Indiana came in 1922, the two programs have competed for the “Old Brass Spittoon” rivalry trophy since 1950. The Hoosiers went 3-0-1 in the series prior to the introduction of the trophy, but the Spartans have dominated since, going 49-14-1 with the Spittoon up for grabs.
With that said, the trophy has changed hands a little more often lately. Michigan State is 4-2 in the series dating back to 2016. Indiana last won the “Old Brass Spittoon” during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, MSU head coach Mel Tucker’s first in East Lansing.
With the history lesson out of the way, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State’s offense goes over 425 yards
I was going to put this number at 450 yards, but the cold temperatures in East Lansing have me dialing back expectations a bit for Michigan State’s offense.
The Hoosiers have the worst defense in the Big Ten, surrendering a league-high 447.6 yards of offense per game, including a league-worst 270.2 passing yards per game. Indiana’s run defense hasn’t been much better, as they allow 177.4 rush yards per game (third-worst in the Big Ten).
In layman's terms, the Spartans should be able to do whatever they want on offense IF the weather cooperates. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-to-mid 20s throughout the game, which could make it difficult for quarterback Payton Thorne to throw the football. If that’s the case, the Hoosiers can load the box in an attempt to stop the run. We’ll see how it plays out, but this is a defense that Michigan State should find some success against.
2.) Jalen Berger eclipses 100 yards rushing
As mentioned above, I don’t know if the weather conditions will allow much production through the air. With that, I expect Michigan State to be a little more run-heavy than usual, and that will mean a lot of opportunities for tailback Jalen Berger.
It could be tough sledding for Berger if Indiana loads up the box, but with enough total carries and a couple chunk runs, he should go over the 100-yard mark.
3.) Payton Thorne throws at least 2 touchdown passes
Although I expect Michigan State to grind things out on the ground, the Spartans’ best offensive weapons remain their wide receivers.
In the red zone, MSU must utilize sophomore wide receiver Keon Coleman as a big target who’s a mismatch for just about everybody. Senior wide receiver Jayden Reed has a knack for going over the top and making plays over defenders as well. Throw in a deep crop of tight ends, and the Spartans have all the weapons they need to attack that subpar Indiana secondary.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) 3 different Spartan seniors score touchdowns
Indiana gives up 34.6 points per game. More importantly, they give up a lot of passing yards. Looking back to Michigan State’s game against Penn State last year, playing in the snow, the Spartans were still able to throw for 268 yards. Against a weaker opponent and on ‘Senior Day’, I can see similar numbers being put up this week.
The three players I think will score are Jayden Reed, Daniel Barker and Elijah Collins. Since MSU’s game against Illinois, Reed has looked as good as he did last year. Barker had a big game against Rutgers, and Collins has been playing well when he gets opportunities. The Spartans utilize a running back by committee approach, but for Senior Day I expect Collins to get more touches.
2.) MSU defense holds the Hoosiers under 13 points
No matter how you want to look at it, Indiana’s season is over. The Hoosiers are no longer bowl eligible, and they’ll likely start playing some inexperienced players to begin preparations for next season. Indiana has nothing to lose, which sounds dangerous, but have inferior talent to Michigan State’s, and will be playing in weather that is unfamiliar.
Indiana has one of the worst rushing offenses in the country, and the Hoosiers can be loose with the football through the air. Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak has a 12-to-9 touchdown to interception ratio this year. For how well the Spartans defensive backs have played as of late, I think they can manage anything the Hoosiers throw at them.
3.) Spartans get 4 sacks on defense
Bazelak has been sacked 23 times this season. I am concerned for his health, as I think the Spartans will raise that number even more. Indiana will be forced to throw the ball given their poor rushing attack, and with a bad offensive line, Michigan State takes advantage.
Even with some of Michigan State’s pass rushers out, I think they have had good production the last few games. Even in the Michigan game the defense played well, it was the offense that didn’t hold their end of the bargain. Indiana allows over three sacks per game, and MSU will get more than three.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
In perfect weather conditions, I’d expect there to be quite a bit of scoring in this game. But in cold and windy conditions, I expect both defenses to have something of an advantage.
One of my bold predictions was that Michigan State would go over 425 yards of offense, but I don’t necessarily think that means the Spartans will light up the scoreboard. In these conditions, turnovers and the kicking game can be an issue. With that said, I like MSU’s personnel a whole lot better than Indiana’s, so while the scoring may be light, I expect the Spartans to come out on top. Score Prediction: Michigan State 24, Indiana 10
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
I don’t know why I’ve been optimistic with the offense still, but I am. In regulation, the Spartans haven’t had a four-touchdown game since playing Washington. My prediction of three touchdowns seems accurate, but I think that is where the touchdowns end.
This feels very similar to the Rutgers game. Michigan State is the more talented team, but the Spartans can’t overlook the Hoosiers. I think Indiana coach Tom Allen might be in some trouble. After a historic 2020 season, they have gone back to the Indiana of old. It wouldn’t be as big of a deal if the university wasn’t paying Allen nearly $5 million a year.
The bottom line is Michigan State has momentum, and Indiana hasn’t won a game since September. On MSU’s Senior Day, the Spartans win and take home the Old Brass Spittoon. Score Prediction: Michigan State 24, Indiana 10
