Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs No. 3 Ohio State

The Spartans face their biggest challenge yet against the Buckeyes...

In the midst of a three-game losing streak, Michigan State returns to Spartan Stadium this week welcoming what will likely be the best team they will face all season. Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) comes to East Lansing ranked No. 3 in the country, having outscored opponents 244-74 through five weeks.

Michigan State (2-3, 0-2) is trying to avoid its first four-game losing streak since the program suffered five consecutive losses on its way to a 7-6 record in 2019.

The Spartans are 15-35 all-time in this series against the Buckeyes, which dates back to 1912. MSU has lost six consecutive games in the series, and has been outscored 108-19 in the last two years by Ohio State.

The Spartans last win over the Buckeyes came in 2015 in Columbus, which propelled MSU to its third Big Ten championship under former head coach Mark Dantonio, as well as the program’s only appearance thus far in the College Football Playoff.

Michigan State enters Saturday’s game as nearly a four-touchdown underdog, which oddmakers currently favoring Ohio State by 27 points. In 1998, the Spartans upset the Buckeyes in Columbus, 28-24, as a 27.5-point underdog.

Could a similar miraculous upset be on the way this weekend in East Lansing?

Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry shares his thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Preview, and Final Score Prediction.

Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions

1.) Michigan State will score first

I’m going to be honest – this may come down to the coin flip. However, if Michigan State gets the ball first, I think they’ll be aggressive on that opening drive and go find a way to put points on the scoreboard.

For three weeks, all this team has heard is how bad they are. All throughout this week, they’ve heard how the Buckeyes are going to drag them up and down the field. I don’t think the Spartans can hang with Ohio State for four quarters, but I’ve got this inkling that they’ll come out and be chomping at the bit in the early-goings.

2.) Keon Coleman, Jayden Reed combine for over 150 yards receiving and two TDs

Given how the last three weeks have gone, it’s hard to expect much from Michigan State’s run game. Likewise, we know how quickly Ohio State could get out to a lead in this game.

Because of those factors, quarterback Payton Thorne is going to have to throw the ball a lot, and he’ll be looking to his two favorite targets often.

As far as talent and athleticism go, Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed are probably the two best players on Michigan State’s team. They are two of the few Spartans who can go toe-to-toe with the Buckeyes from a pure talent standpoint, and you need guys like that to show up big in games like these.

There are a lot of factors that go into a successful passing game – the offensive line has to pass-protect, receivers have to get open and the quarterback has to be on-target. Coleman and Reed can only control one of those three things, but if the other two factors fall into place, these two could have a big game.

3.) Jacoby Windmon sacks C.J. Stroud

I’ve called for Michigan State’s defense to come up with an interception multiple times in my bold predictions this season, and it hasn’t happened. I’m not falling down that rabbit hole again this week.

The Spartans’ secondary is in for another long game this Saturday. Kendall Brooks have filled in nicely for Xavier Henderson at strong safety, and I think true freshman Jaden Mangham has a bright future ahead of him at the free safety spot. Likewise, Angelo Grose’s move to nickelback put him in a better spot going forward as well.

With all of that said, this Ohio State offense is a death machine. The Buckeyes are a matchup nightmare even for good passing defenses, and Michigan State is far from that. I don’t see the Spartans slowing down Ohio State much in this game, but I’ll call for defensive end Jacoby Windmon to increase his sack total to 6.5 for the season.

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

This is just a terrible matchup for Michigan State, and it comes at a time in which the Spartans’ confidence couldn’t be much lower. MSU has lost three games in a row for the first time under head coach Mel Tucker, and there is just way too big of a talent gap between these programs to even consider an upset pick.

I do think Michigan State will score first, and maybe the Spartans can put up a fight for a quarter, but the Buckeyes are just too good and will pull away. Score Prediction: Michigan State 17, Ohio State 55