Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Rutgers

After a dreadful four-game losing streak in which they lost each game by double digits, Michigan State football is starting to build a little momentum and has a chance to finish the season strong.

The Spartans have won two of their last three games, beating Wisconsin in double-overtime in East Lansing and upsetting then-No. 16 Illinois on the road in Champaign. Between those two victories, MSU lost on the road to the team now ranked No. 3 in the country.

With those wins, Michigan State (4-5 overall, 2-4 Big Ten) has kept its bowl eligibility hopes alive with two games the Spartans will be favored to win in each of these next two weeks. That starts this Saturday when MSU hosts Rutgers (4-5, 1-5).

The Spartans enter this game as a 10-point favorite, the first time Michigan State has been favored in a game since Week 2 against Akron. However, MSU will still be without the eight players who were suspended due to the postgame incident at Michigan Stadium two weeks ago, so Michigan State’s depth remains questionable at best.

The Spartans are 9-4 all-time against the Scarlet Knights. The first game between these two schools came in 1988, resulting in a 17-13 win for Rutgers in East Lansing. The programs have done battle each year as divisional opponents since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014. Michigan State has gone 7-1 against Rutgers during that stretch.

Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.

Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions

1.) MSU defense holds Rutgers offense under season avg. for points, yards

Michigan State’s defensive numbers are pretty poor this season. The Spartans rank 13th in the Big Ten in yards allowed and 11th in the conference in points allowed, per game.

However, if you ignore the game against Ohio State, Michigan State has actually been much better on defense since the second half of the Maryland game. On the flip side, Rutgers has struggled offensively for most of the year.

I’ll call for the Spartans’ defense to hold the Scarlet Knights under their season averages in both points (19.8) and yards (291.4).

2.) Tight end Tyler Hunt scores a touchdown

Tyler Hunt and I went to the same high school, and I spoke with Tyler this summer when he hosted a youth football camp in our hometown, Gobles. One of Tyler’s goals for this season was to score a touchdown at home in Spartan Stadium.

The sixth-year senior and one-time walk-on punter is running out of opportunities, as Michigan State has only two home games remaining this season. Admittedly, this is a bit of a biased “bold prediction” from me, but I think Tyler gets that touchdown this weekend against Rutgers.

Michigan State will work its way into the red zone, and quarterback Payton Thorne will find his tight end in the end zone for six.

3.) Michigan State rushes for more than 100 yards

The Spartans have one of the worst rushing attacks in the Big Ten, ranking 13th out of 14 in rush yards per game (99.1). However, Michigan State will exceed its season average against the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers’ defense has been the strength of its team, but the Scarlet Knights’ pass defense has been the strength of the unit. I like Michigan State’s receiving weapons, and I think the Spartans will have some success through the air. With that being said, I think MSU enjoys a more balanced effort this Saturday, and gets the run game going a bit with Jalen Berger and Elijah Collins.

Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions

1.) Michigan State gets two interceptions

Michigan State’s defensive backs have been much improved since the bye week. Charles Brantley has played well throughout the year, but the other corners are now following suit. Ameer Speed has started to look like what the Spartans expected him to. Having Xavier Henderson back at safety is also a big factor.

But, there is more into this prediction than MSU’s past performances. Rutgers quarterback Gavin Wimsatt is a young guy who has struggled with turnovers this year. He was thrown into the starting lineup recently and hasn’t found his footing yet, with two passing touchdowns against six interceptions.

Michigan State needs to take advantage of Rutgers’ revolving quarterback issue. I would be disappointed if they don’t get at least one interception.

2.) Jalen Berger rushes for over 100 yards

I was really pleased with how well Berger played last week. Even though he only rushed for 81 yards, he looked aggressive and showed burst in his runs. It looked like Berger ran with confidence for the first time since the Western Michigan game.

Rutgers defense isn’t better than Illinois, so I expect his numbers to go up. Michigan State should have a similar game plan on offense than they did last week.

Something else to think about is the weather. We are in the season in which drastic changes to our state’s weather are frequent, so if it starts raining or we get high winds, I expect the ground game to be used even more. Either way, I think the Spartans will game plan around Berger after last week's performance.

3.) Rutgers is held to less than 100 yards rushing

Against Ohio State and Michigan this year, Rutgers had a total of 121 yards rushing. Now, Michigan State’s defense is nowhere near OSU’s or Michigan’s, but the Spartans showed last week they can slow down the running game.

Cal Haladay had his best performance of the season, shutting down Illinois running back Chase Brown. Along with Haladay, a lot of players filled in for suspended or injured guys and stepped up and to make plays. Ben VanSumeren’s return at linebacker makes a big difference with Jacoby Windmon out too. Haladay and VanSumeren should have big games for this prediction to come true.

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

I had a good feeling about Michigan State last weekend, but the eight suspended players on defense kept me from picking the Spartans to beat Illinois outright.

This week, for whatever reason, I think Michigan State is going to be in a dogfight for a while. Rutgers had the lead for a half last week against Michigan, and the Scarlet Knights played with a voracious physicality on defense.

Furthermore, the Spartans lack of depth on defense still concerns me. Fortunately, Rutgers has been one of the worst offensive teams in the Big Ten this season, and I don’t think the Scarlet Knights have the weapons to consistently test MSU’s vulnerability. Michigan State and Rutgers will trade blows for a half to three quarters, before the Spartans put the Scarlet Knights away in the fourth. Score Prediction: Michigan State 27, Rutgers 17

Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction

Honestly, I don’t think there is much to say other than Michigan State should win this game. I understand the concerns with the amount of suspended players, but overall Michigan State still has superior talent.

Rutgers has struggled to score, similar to the 2018 MSU team, which was historically bad. Both teams still have a shot to make a bowl game, but the Spartans, at home, should take care of business.

This isn’t talked about much, but there has to be some underlying motivation for Tucker and the staff after Michigan State lost to Rutgers in 2020. That loss broke the Scarlet Knights two-year drought of not winning a conference game. I think the coaches know that and want to run up the score if they are able to. Score Prediction: Michigan State 31, Rutgers 19

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