Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
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Michigan State is in the midst of its first four-game losing streak since 2019, and the Spartans have lost four in a row by double digits for the first time since 2002.
This weekend, Michigan State (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) looks to end its slide and earn its first conference victory when it hosts Wisconsin (3-3, 1-2) for Homecoming Week on Saturday. The Badgers fired head coach Paul Chryst five weeks into the season, and promoted defensive coordinator Jim Leonard to be their interim coach for the remainder of the year.
Michigan State is 30-24 all-time in the series against Wisconsin, which dates back to 1913. However, since the Big Ten split into divisions in 2011, the Spartans and Badgers have only played five times over the past 11 years.
Michigan State has lost the last two meetings in the series, which came in 2016 and 2019. The Spartans last win over Wisconsin came in 2012, a 16-13 victory in Madison.
MSU opened as a four-point home underdog to the Badgers, but the number has grown over the week. Wisconsin is now a 7.5-point favorite over the Spartans. Michigan State is 0-4 as an underdog this season, and has not covered the spread in any of those losses.
Will see if the Spartans can overcome any of these trends on Saturday.
Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry shares his thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, a Game Preview, and a Final Score Prediction.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Elijah Collins gets more than five carries
This may not sound like a "bold" prediction, but Collins has gone over five carries in a game just once this season — in Week 2 against Akron. However, in his limited use, Collins has been Michigan State's most efficient tailback through the past two weeks.
Against Maryland, the senior had 36 yards and a touchdown on just five carries, good enough for 7.2 yards per carry. Last week, against Ohio State, Collins was handed the ball just twice for nine yards.
It's a small sample size, but Collins is averaging 6.4 yards per carry for the Spartans this season — 103 yards on 16 carries. It's time to give him a shot at being the feature back in this offense.
2.) Spartans sack Graham Mertz at least three times
Michigan State has struggled to get consistent pass rush in these last four weeks, but I think they get to Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz a few times on Saturday.
The Spartans should load up to stop Braelon Allen and the Badger run game, and give themselves some third and long opportunities to get after the QB. If senior defensive tackle Jacob Slade is back in the lineup, that would go a long way towards MSU's run-stuffing efforts, and allow the defensive ends to get some one-on-one matchups.
3.) Michigan State defense holds Wisconsin under 350 total yards
This isn't setting the bar super high, but with as bad as the Spartans' defense has been this season, I still consider this "bold". Michigan State is surrendering an average of 445.5 offensive yards per game through six weeks, which is the second-worst total in the Big Ten.
With that being said, I don't think this Wisconsin team has the explosiveness to exploit the Spartans' secondary like several teams have this season. The Badgers want to pound the rock with Braelon Allen, and I think MSU will be geared up to slow him down.
I expect a low-scoring game, and not a lot of offense from either side on Saturday.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
I’m not sure why, but I’ve had a good feeling about this game for a couple of weeks now. Despite losses to Maryland and Ohio State these past two weeks, I’ve always viewed this as a winnable game for Michigan State.
Although the Spartans have not lived up to expectations in 2022, Wisconsin has had a pretty disappointing season themselves. The Badgers were the media’s preseason favorite to win the Big Ten West division, but fired head coach Paul Chryst after a 2-3 start to the season.
Wisconsin doesn’t have the offensive firepower to take advantage of MSU’s biggest weakness – the pass defense. I expect the Spartans to load up to stop the run and force Badger quarterback Graham Mertz to beat them. Mertz has been erratic at best during his career, and I think Michigan State’s secondary will be up for the challenge.
On the other side of the ball, I do think it will be tough sledding for MSU’s offense. Wisconsin traditionally has a tough defense, and the Spartans haven’t exactly set the world on fire offensively. However, Michigan State will have the best athletes on the field in Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman. I think the Spartans do just enough to pull out a low-scoring victory on Homecoming. Score Prediction: Michigan State 23, Wisconsin 20
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