Staff Predictions: Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan

It’s been a looooong two weeks, but we’ve reached the end of this season’s double-dose of ‘Hate Week’ ahead of the annual Battle for Paul Bunyan.

Michigan State (3-4, 1-3 Big Ten) is in Ann Arbor today, ready to face off against their bitter in-state rival and the No. 4 team in the nation – Michigan (7-0, 4-0).

The Spartans’ ended a four-game losing streak two weeks ago with a much-needed 34-28 victory over Wisconsin in double-overtime in East Lansing. Beating the Badgers was vital for Michigan State, not only to keep this squad in contention for a bowl berth, but also to get some positive momentum going ahead of the biggest game of the year.

When Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh ahead of the 2015 season, Wolverine fans across the state rejoiced in the expectation that Harbaugh would bring control of this rivalry back to Ann Arbor. However, Mark Dantonio and Mel Tucker had other ideas, and Harbaugh is just 3-4 in his coaching career against MSU.

The first game between the University of Michigan and Michigan Agricultural College was in 1898. The Wolverines lead the all-time series, 71-38-5. Michigan and Michigan State have played annually every year since 1945.

The rivalry has been much more competitive since the Spartans joined the Big Ten in 1953, which coincides with the inclusion of the Paul Bunyan – Governor of Michigan Trophy. Michigan leads the trophy series, 38-29-2.

The Spartans have won two in a row against their bitter rivals from Ann Arbor, as head coach Mel Tucker became the first head coach in MSU history to win each of his first two games against Michigan. However, Michigan State has a tall task in retaining the Paul Bunyan Trophy this season, as the Spartans enter the game as a whopping 23-point underdog.

Can Michigan State pull of another stunning upset and end Michigan’s perfect season?

Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.

Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions

1.) Jacoby Windmon forces another turnover

Michigan State needs its best players to play at their best in order to beat the Wolverines. Jacoby Windmon has been arguably MSU’s best player this season, racking up 10.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, a nation-leading six forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and an interception.

I think the Spartans will come up with a turnover this Saturday as well, and it’s a pretty good bet that Windmon will somehow be involved.

2.) Jayden Reed, Keon Coleman combine for 175 receiving yards, two touchdowns

Sticking with our theme about the best players playing well, the Spartans have to force feed the ball to Reed and Coleman, who are without a doubt their top two weapons on offense.

Coleman is going to have a size and athletic advantage against anyone Michigan puts across from him, and Michigan State has to take advantage. Think about games of the past in this rivalry, when guys like Plaxico Burress and Braylon Edwards leds their teams to victory – Coleman is that kind of athlete.

Reed, meanwhile, is a savvy veteran and the moment is never too big for him. Time and time again the senior has come up with a timely catch – usually up the right sideline – when the Spartans absolutely need one. The Wolverines have not seen a receiving duo this good in 2022, and that’s an advantage for the Spartans.

3.) Xavier Henderson, Kendall Brooks lead MSU in tackles

This might not be good news for Michigan State, but I’m going to predict that their two safeties lead the team in tackles against Michigan. The Wolverines want to pound with the run game, and their offensive line is good at getting to the linebackers in the second level. That means the safeties have to make more tackles.

In addition, we know about the Spartans’ struggles in pass defense, so the safeties will be called upon to help out there as well. This will be Henderson’s final game in this series, and I expect him to be highly motivated and around the ball a lot. Brooks has been one of MSU’s better defenders this season as well, and he’s got a nose for the ball.

Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions

1.) Maliq Carr scores a touchdown

I think Carr and fellow tight end Daniel Barker will have to be key contributors in order for Michigan State to pull off the upset win. Payton Thorne needs to utilize his larger targets, including Keon Coleman as well. Michigan’s defense will scheme around Reed and Coleman, so using those other weapons at tight end is crucial.

2.) MSU will give up less than 150 rushing yards

Michigan has two All-Conference caliber running backs with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. With that being said, this will be their worst game yet this season. The rush defense for MSU isn’t as good as last year, but is still a tough test for the Wolverines. Michigan has beaten teams this year by running the ball, and MSU knows that. Michigan also knows the Spartans’ pass defense is weak as ever, which factors into Corum and Edwards getting fewer touches.

3.) Payton Thorne throws two touchdowns and two interceptions

Thorne has been pretty up and down in terms of his performance this season. The redshirt junior played better against Wisconsin, but I think he struggles against Michigan. The Wolverines’ defensive line is very good, and will pressure him all night. Even though Thorne improved two weeks ago, he still has some hiccups, which will come back to bite him in this game.

However, Thorne seems healthy enough to have some positive moments in this game as well. Reed being back to full strength makes a big difference on offense. You could also tell Thorne is starting to trust his offensive line a little bit more, which you didn’t see against Minnesota or Ohio State. We’ll see some good Thorne and some bad Thorne against the Wolverines.

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

I’ve had two weeks to think about this game, but I don’t really have a good sense of what is going to happen on Saturday. On paper, Michigan is a clear and obvious favorite who shouldn’t have much trouble in this ball game, but it's been extremely rare for the Wolverines to have their way with the Spartans over the last 15 years.

MSU head coach Mel Tucker has shown an ability to get his guys to play like their hair is on fire in this rivalry game, and the ‘Keep Chopping’ mantra paid huge dividends in this game a year ago. With that being said, there’s a reason why Michigan is favored by 23 points, and it would take a Herculean effort from Michigan State to pull off this upset. I think the Spartans hang around for a while, but the Wolverines advantage in the trenches will be too much to overcome. Score Prediction: Michigan State 14, Michigan 34

Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction

In Michigan’s best season since the turn of the century, they still couldn’t beat Michigan State. The Spartans are playing with house money for the rest of the season, and would like nothing more than to ruin Michigan’s playoff chances.

I can see MSU possibly winning, but they have to play their best game of the season on both sides of the ball. The offense can’t have any turnovers, and the defense needs to get off the field. I don’t think the offense is too far off from having a big game, but the defense is a different story.

I don’t think Michigan is a Top 5 team in the nation, and I could argue not even Top 10. The Wolverines are in the second group of teams that are still very good. They aren’t going to lose this game, but Michigan State will make it competitive.

Though it is hard to admit, I believe Michigan is the better team, and by a reasonable margin. Score Prediction: Michigan State 23, Michigan 31