San Dantonio? MSU vs. Texas Tech Alamo Bowl Edition: Scouting Report and Prediction

When MSU has the Ball…  The Spartans will be able to move the ball on offense. I certainly don’t think it will be easy, but they can do it. The

When MSU has the Ball…

 

The Spartans will be able to move the ball on offense. I certainly don’t think it will be easy, but they can do it. The offense has been the surprise of the season. Don Treadwell has done a remarkable job. It certainly hasn’t been perfect, but no one is, and Spartan fans that have been riding him are not fair.

 

He lost two senior offensive line leaders, neither were great, but they were seasoned. He has resisted the temptation to pull red shirts and played a patched together OL. He overcame the loss of Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer, and the offense has led the way this season.

 

Again, it doesn’t change that some things that were done are fair and germane to question, like the use of TEs and Keith Nichol, but he has had a very good season and he deserves that to be noted.

 

TT will get pressure on Cousins. That is just a fact. The Spartans OL has been patched together and has not been good all season. A Texas radio station asked me this week about the lack of production and if it was all to losing Javon. Of course, that was a gigantic part, but so was the fact that the OL was not as good as last year.

 

The offensive line is more critical than the loss of the WR groups. I know that will shock a lot of you, but if MSU can’t run, they can’t win. All season I have said that the Spartans had to pass to open the run, this one game it is opposite. They must run. When TT has lost, it was because of the run.

 

I have heard a lot of people talk about time of possession. I am not a guy who puts a lot of stock in that. I used to. Tony Dungy and I were talking once and he changed my opinion. “There are a lot of times we scored so fast with Peyton (Manning) that at the end of the game we would look at the time of possession and be like how did we win? To me it really isn’t about time of possession, it is what you do with the time when you have possession.” He convinced me and I agree.

 

The Spartans have to be able to run straight ahead, downfield power football. There has been a lot of talk about the spread in the offensive line of TT and I agree and will address it when we get to the D, but for now, let’s talk about the spreads of their DEs.

 

TT will put them out wide in an attempt to get them unabated shots at the QBs on five step drops. Our OTs (Cironi and Young) are not as fast as three of their DEs, and they will line up wide in five step drop situations and that will take away Cousins being able to drop back that far and stand.

 

Kirk has done a great job all season of stepping up in the pocket. That will require great patience on the part of Cironi and Young to wait for the DEs to come back to them and let Kirk step up.

 

The Red Raiders see the Spartan OL as the place to attack as a weakness, even more than the WR troubles. Quick screens, slants and better utilization of the TE will force them to back off the pressure and the running game can help.

 

Again, I have no doubt that the offense can score some points, enough to win if the defense can contain them. The Spartan D can’t stop the Red Raiders, but can they contain them enough to win?

 

I have watched every Red Raider game at least once, and they remind me a lot (obviously some differences) to a CMU and Northwestern hybrid. The Spartans can learn from them and use some of their schemes to hurt them.

 

In the CMU game the Spartans scored enough points to win but didn’t. The defense was simply embarrassed. This game could be the same. It is assumed that 17 points is the least a team needs to win. It will take a lot more tonight.

 

When the Spartans are on Defense…

 

The Red Raiders may have lost their coach and signal caller. His tendencies that have been charted are no long worth anything. What they will have, however, is a team that won’t change. They are going to attack the Spartans DBs.

 

They have been salivating badly all week. One TT person said it best when he told me, “Those guys in the backfield are in the right spot, but they make some horrendous technique mistakes. That ain’t coaching, that is about talent.”

 

The Red Raiders are going to attack the Spartans from the moment their bus arrives at the Alamo Bowl dome. They will make the Spartans pass defenders earn their scholarships. The defensive backfield has been the single worst performing part of this team all year. They simply didn’t have the talent in 2009 to compete. I will address this in much more detail after the season in an article for the January Spartan Nation Magazine entitled “What Went Wrong”. Until then, let’s just say that the Spartan DBs have stopped no one this season and the Red Raiders are the best. You do the math.

 

The Spartans like to blitz and create havoc. TT takes a three-step drop and throws. It is essentially impossible (other than in five step drop situations) to get sacks. That will force the Spartans DL to get that pressure so they can have six or seven men in coverage.

 

It has been discussed ad nauseum that the TT OL will spread out as much as five yards between each other. Let me explain the significance. 

 

With a normal line like MSU, they are about a yard or less apart. There are very little gaps between linemen. TT will put as much as five yards, forcing your DL to make a choice. If the DL normally sets up outside the OL shoulder, rather than being four or five yards from the ball under center, they are now ten or eleven. With a three-step drop and immediate release by the QB, there is essentially no shot at sack or pressure with a defensive backfield as porous as the Spartans.

 

I asked MSU DC Pat Narduzzi about that this week and he blew off the question mentioning that others have gotten pressure. I agree, but those that did, didn’t have a defensive backfield as bad as his. They got coverage sacks, something more precious than jobs in East Lansing this year.

 

Now, back to the OL spreads. If the tackles then move into the gaps, the TT QB simply calls a run and they are easily blocked down on. The Spartans will see those gaps and blitz Greg Jones or another unexpected defender and I like that. Rushing five and dropping six can work.

 

With five receiver sets, the Spartans can’t rush more than five. If they do, it is over. When Tech goes to some four sets, they can. All of that is fine and dandy, but if it works it still doesn’t equal a win. Here is the biggest single factor in the game.

 

TT likes that short three-step drop and pass. Similar to a lot of what CMU did, they will take a bubble and a quick slant. They will complete passes. You can’t stop that. What you can stop is the poor tackling.

 

If you are watching the game and the MSU defenders are making the tackles immediately and without help (with five receivers running routes and five rushers there won’t be room to double team), the Spartans offense will score enough points to win.

 

The Spartans have not done well consistently against teams by tackling in space this season. Can they all of a sudden with a flip of the calendar and a change of year exorcize those demons? I hope so. If you see TT receivers catching the ball and advancing it past the place they caught it, you might as well order some Cottage Inn Pizza and put in I love Lucy reruns, because it will be a long, long night.

 

When the Spartans are on Special Teams…

 

The speed of TT will be shown here and that is OK. Aaron Bates, in my opinion, is the best punter in the Big Ten, and although at the end he struggles with what Dantonio called “Confidence,” I talked with him and he was more confident and ready than I have ever seen him. He will directionally punt to give the TT team as little room to run as possible. 

 

This will require the Spartans to be disciplined in their coverage, but all should be fine.

 

The TT offense needs no help. Brett Swenson has struggled this season with kickoffs, but he told me at the hotel earlier in the week that with the dome he is confident in what he can do. Swenson is never one to exaggerate or to build himself up. If he says it, I believe him.

 

Swenson is money on field goals, but the Spartans won’t win this game with field goals. They are going to win with points, touchdowns. Let’s hope the Spartans aren’t caught settling for field goals.

 

Their punt coverage is not great, but not terrible. I do think the Spartans can have some success here, and as critical as it is not to give the Red Raiders extra field position, I do think the Spartans can do well here.

 

Coaches…

 

I will walk away from this bowl experience greatly impressed with Ruffin McNeill. He is a great man in a tough spot. Talking to TT players and parents, as much as most love Leach, they feel the same for this man.

 

He is a great guy, but if the Spartans keep it close, he is no Dantonio. The Spartans have the edge here, and again if they can keep it close, a Coach D decision could decide the ball game.

 

Intangibles…

 

Where do I start? The Red Raiders, regardless of whether they loved Leach, love, let me EMPHASIS LOVE, Ruffin McNeil. This is similar to the Spartans winning the Citrus Bowl with Bobby Williams after Nick Satan Saban left.

 

They will be inspired to play for him. The emotion is not fake. They truly love the man and they will be jacked to try to get him the job.

 

The Spartans have gone from being the story with the suspensions to be almost an insignificant factor outside of the Spartan Nation. There is no pressure on them. They aren’t expected to win and aren’t even getting much of a shot.

 

In fairness, based on the disappointing 2009 season, they haven’t earned the respect. The calendar has flipped. The Spartans have come out with excellent game plans in their last two bowls and played well against superior teams.

 

In 2007 they could have beaten a much better BC team that had a bad day and couldn’t. No shame. Last year they overachieved and got a much better team in Georgia, that if they hadn’t suffered injuries early could have been in the BCS title game. They were healthy for MSU. If MSU hadn’t overachieved they would have played South Carolina. They could have destroyed South Carolina like Iowa did. 

 

This season they should have been in a Little Caesars or Insight bowl, and instead, because of their tremendous fan support, get a January second bowl against a far superior team. I know that no one saw it, but the Spartans would have beaten Iowa State in the Insight bowl and their opponent in the Pizza Pizza bowl.

 

Bowls all come down to match-ups and the Spartans are glad to be back bowling, but they certainly have got no help from the Bowl gods in getting those positive match-ups.

 

Predictions…

 

Anything can happen. I see a lot of ifs however when you predict the Spartans. I do know this, for me, a man who covers this team day to day 365 days a year, I have no doubt that Mark Dantonio is the right man. None. The Spartans need to keep this relatively close. This year’s struggle and off field issues combined with a blowout would hurt this team. Anyone being honest would tell you that.

 

A close game allows you to look ahead. A win certainly sends you into the critical last month of recruiting with a sales pitch.

 

I just see a lot of holes and not a lot of hardware to fix it. The Spartans have a wealth of talent that is red shirting and they won’t break those shirts for this game. I support them on that. It is a wise choice.

 

With the better OL on the bench red shirting than they have now, and other talents whose red shirts are more valuable than an Alamo Bowl win, the Spartans (unless they play their best game of the year in all phases) don’t have the horses to run in this race.

 

The Red Raiders have struggled when they have beaten themselves. If State can get a lead early or keep it close, the Red Raiders could self destruct. That is the Spartans best chance of a win and it doesn't happen often.

 

Let's all hope I am wrong. I think if these two teams played ten times MSU would win two. I sure hope that the stars align and I am WRONG! That would make no one happier than me. 

 

I say MSU 24 and Texas Tech 38.