Scouting Report and Prediction: #2 Michigan State (3-0) vs. Central Michigan (1-2)

A look at this week’s opponent… The Spartans will be playing yet again another team coming off of a bowl season and one that is no cupcake. CMU has a

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Spartans will be playing yet again another team coming off of a bowl season and one that is no cupcake. CMU has a disappointing 1-2 record, but if you have not seen the games against power five schools Oklahoma State (#22) and Syracuse you are missing something.

CMU should have won both of those games. This is a team not intimidated by MSU and they know that the Chips have beaten MSU three times in the past. Add to the mix">, QB Cooper Rush, a Charlotte, MI. product, is on his way to the NFL and never got an MSU offer. This game is full of intrigue.

When MSU has the ball…

Michigan State Coach Mark Dantonio admitted that when Air Force loaded the box to stop the Spartans last week, he did not want to run the score up. Connor Cook was given plays in which audibling to a pass was not allowed. If the brakes had not been put on, the Spartans could have scored 75 with the defense Air Force ran. It got Dantonio criticism, but confirmed what people admire about him. In a profession of win at all costs mentality, Dantonio remains committed to his own set of values.

If CMU watched that film and thinks for one second the Spartans won’t attack them in a way that they didn’t Air Force, they would be highly mistaken. The Spartans need a dynamic win. They have won three good games, but they have avoided a blowout win. MSU needs that this week.

Dantonio said of the Chips D, “On the defensive side of the ball, the defensive tackles I feel are two good players, Jabari Dean and Palmer. Also feel like Frazier, their safety's a good player and he shows up a lot on special teams as well. So I'll take some questions right now. If there are challenges, we need to continue to focus on the moment in terms of where we're at as a program right now and move from there.”

CMU has a significantly higher rated defense than MSU against the run; 35th in the nation and MSU is 48th. As well as the pass where CMU is rated 40th while MSU is an abysmal 101st. If the CMU defense can continue to play at that level this week the Spartans will be on HIGH UPSET ALERT.

CMU is going to throw the ball all over the field. That means, successful or not, the Chips are going to have short drives. That is why it is critical for MSU to have long sustained drives. That keeps the Chips defense on the field and exhausted.

If the Chips do what I expect and load the box, MSU must let Cook audible and pass the ball all over the field. The TE attack of MSU through the air has been extremely underused this season and when wanting to sustain drives they are key. MSU has some deep talent at TE and Cook needs to utilize it. Better to hit a Spartan TE for an eight yard gain on second down then taking a risk at a 50/50 ball 40 yards down the field.

If MSU fails to get significant second reps for Tyler O’Connor, this game will end up being graded a significant concern for me. Dantonio has said he learned from Andrew Maxwell not being developed in 2011. We shall see how much.

When MSU is on defense…

The Spartan defense is facing the nation’s 14th ranked passing attack with a future NFL QB that feels like (and I agree) he should have got an MSU offer. Cooper Rush, the CMU QB, no doubt realizes that every NFL team is going to evaluate him against this D. Cooper is a highly competitive young man and a good one. He won’t melt in this atmosphere; he will shine. I expect a career day from the young man.

Dantonio has great respect for the Chips offense, “I think their quarterback, Cooper Rush from Lansing Catholic, has got great poise, does a great job. He's getting 70 percent of his passes, he's thrown for nearly a thousand yards in three games, 420 this past week. Tight end McCord, No. 89, is their leading receiver, so they get the ball to him, they get the ball to the backs, screen, things of that nature, and he'll go up top as well. But been impressed with what they've been able to do.”

As I expressed earlier, there were several people inside the Duffy who thought QB Rush should have got an MSU offer . I agreed with them and Dantonio certainly has great respect for the Chippewa gunslinger. “I think he's a challenge for our entire football team. You've got to get a pass rush on him. He's poised, he's big, he's almost 230 pounds. He ran the ball effectively at Lansing Catholic, that's what they did. But a lot of underneath throws. He will throw it up as well, but obviously a great quarterback completing those numbers. He's a great challenge for us. I think the biggest thing is he's a poised quarterback, he has experience. He played some as a redshirt freshman, he started a couple games. He started down at U of M here a couple years ago as a redshirt freshman. I think he grew immensely last year, you saw that growth, and I think he's taken the next step in his progression.”

CMU is going to throw the ball all over the field. Rush can make every throw including the 15 yard out across the field from the opposite hash. That is not normal and there are QBs in the NFL that can’t do that. He is special.

MSU must be wary because the Chips love to use the intermediate TE game and they will challenge the MSU LB’s in space via the air as well. The Spartans do not need to concentrate as much on the run against this team, but CMU can’t just ignore that. The Spartan front is too good to allow them to pin their ears back and just go after Rush.

CMU won’t beat MSU with the rush, but they can keep them honest and use screens and quick strike slants to keep them thinking and the run mixed in to make them at least contemplate it. CMU won’t beat MSU if they help them. The Chips can’t have turnovers that stop them. They must make the MSU D do that.

Any sustained or long drives by the Chips will also greatly help their defense. MSU wants to keep the Chip defense on the field and beat them into exhaustion.

I spoke to an AFC NFL team official this week about Rush. He said, “Not as big as Ben Roethlisberger, but he has a lot of similar qualities. More mobility for sure, but he will stay in that pocket too. He is tough and I want to see him against this Spartan defense.” That is high praise of the youngster.

Intangibles…

Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don't remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game.

The Chips are a very good team. They easily could be and should be 3-0. MSU is better, but MSU can’t take their foot off of the gas. I want to see MSU come in and dominate a game for an entire game. They need to do that. CMU has to play their best to win. MSU does not, but if MSU helps the Chips with poor tackling, poor play calling, and turnovers this could be a nightmare quick.

Extra Point…

MSU has used QB Damion Terry in very specific run situations when he has got the ball this season. They have not been successful. One of the reasons that Terry was so highly sought after nationally as a ">QB was his ability to be a dual threat. Run and pass. Teams have keyed up on Terry and the Spartan staff using him as a runner. That is fine, it is up to them, but teams are all over it and that is why when Terry has been in the game in those special packages of plays they have not had great success.

In my opinion it is unfair to Terry to put him in a position such as the Oregon game when Ducks players the moment their sideline saw Terry enter began yelling out the run. In was a very important situation and they snuffed it out. If the Spartans want to use Terry I have no issues with that, but to use him like they are is not helping him or the team.

Terry would tell you he isn’t the best runner in the world or even the best passer in college football. BUT, when combined where teams can’t automatically call Tabasco for a blitz because they know he’s running, he becomes elite. Thus the reason he was given the dual threat moniker that he earned and if they are going to use him, they need to put him in a position to succeed.

All THREE of the Spartan opponents this season have keyed up on Terry as a running threat only. If they don’t want him to throw that is totally at their discretion, but Terry’s success comes when he is a dual threat and NOT when he is running back.

Prediction…

Central Michigan will be able to score points, but MSU is better. I look for that MSU breakout game. I asked my two buddies and fellow Spartan Nation TV participants to add their picks now. Tico Duckett 24-21, TJ Duckett says 38-14, and I say make it 41-21. We all agree MSU wins!