Scouting Report and Prediction: #7/ #4 Michigan State 6-0 (2-0) vs. #12/#14 Michigan 5-1 (2-0)

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Spartans are playing their old rival Michigan. Dantonio mastered the understatement this week saying of this game, “Big game this weekend, obviously, very, very impressed with UM in terms of what they've been doing on the field and playing outstanding defense, special teams, offensively as well. Obviously a big game, ninth game running here, so looking forward to the challenge.”

But this game is personal. Connor Cook tried to explain this week how you teach the young players about it. “You know, Coach usually says you don't have to say anything about it, as soon as you are out there for warm-ups, you kinda feel it. You know, the attitude, the emotion, there is just something in the air that you get, that you feel playing against Michigan, but it's very intense, you know, there is a lot of emotion, there is a lot of heart that goes into this game, and just starting out and going out there and feeling it, smelling the air, all that stuff, it kinda runs through your body, runs through your veins and you kinda just get -- get more pumped up than you would for any other opponent.”

When MSU has the ball…

Michigan State can’t just run the ball down the throat of UM. They will stack the box. I believe MSU can win this game, but the biggest test is going to be on the head coach and Dave Warner. They can’t be conservative on this day and win. They must pass to run. I agree on the importance of running, but you must loosen up this very stout Wolverine attack.

As good as UM is on defense, it is not like they have played a top tier offensive attack. The best offense they have played (the best) is #63 BYU. When one team attacked in the air (that was Utah), they beat Michigan. The Michigan OFFENSE is not geared to play a game of high stakes scoring.

When the UM D let Utah score the UM offense couldn’t keep up. UM will be able to score. The Spartans are going to have to outscore them and that means the coaches are on notice that they can lose this game.

The Spartans beat Oregon (#11 offense nationally) by outscoring them. UM is #77 and MSU can outscore them as well. It is important for MSU to come into the game with their foot on the gas. If MSU has their foot on the gas and doesn’t take it off like they have showed a tendency to do over the Dantonio era, MSU wins this game going away.

Credit Michigan for their very solid defense, Dantonio does. “I think what they're doing defensively, I think they're playing a lot of tight man coverage, middle field safety. I think they're tackling well, pressuring the quarterback, stopping the run. When you stop the run, you put -- you create another dimension, put them in long-yardage situations behind the chains and, you know, good things usually happen. They're getting turnovers as well. Then on the offensive side of the ball, you know, they're taking the clock, they're winning the time of possession, they're establishing a running game. You look at their players, a lot of the players are the same players that have been there, so they've done a good job of recruiting in the past, and they're playing well.”

When MSU is on defense…

The Spartans will be facing a good running attack by the Wolverines. They MUST force UM to beat them with the pass. I haven’t seen proof that they can. If UM has success running the ball that is a prescription for a UM win.

Darien Harris, the Spartan OLB, said when asked about the UM offensive attack, “Definitely got back into old-fashioned ball, lining up in heavy sets, running the ball, power, a lot of power, power lot, things that you see in a lot of old school football, so they've definitely gotten back to that. As far as the quarterback situation, like you said, we played against him a few years ago. He's poised in the pocket, know knows what he's doing as a senior, as a fifth-year guy. He's got a real good command on the offense, and he's done a really good job or them.”

Spartan MLB Riley Bullough broke down the UM attack saying, “Believe it or not, they use their fullbacks a lot, they hand the ball off to them, so it's going to be a little bit different for us, but I think the big thing is just controlling the line of scrimmage. Our "D" line is going to play a huge role in this game, like they do every game, but this one more so because, like you said, getting heavy sets, they try to run the ball at you, so it's going to be important to control the point and just to play fast and play downhill.”

The Spartans must make the Wolverine aerial attack beat them. UM couldn’t do that against Utah and lost. Every other game the Michigan QB wasn’t asked to win with his arm. UM looks a lot like the Rose Bowl Stanford team on offense that the Spartans outscored.

Darien Harris mentioned the look of Stanford this week from the Rose Bowl and looking back at the game. “We've looked back at that year and looked at some Stanford film to see how we played against them, but it's similar to what they do. Obviously Coach Harbaugh coming from Stanford, he's brought a lot of what he did there to Michigan, but they are similar to what they do, like I said, old-fashioned football, lining it up, trying to run it down your throat, like Riley said, using fullbacks, which you don't see in this day and age, so it's similar. And we were successful obviously against Stanford, so we are going to go back, look at that film, see what we did in those games and try to apply it to this week.”

Dantonio said of the UM rushing attack, “It's old school, if you want to say that, or like I tend to say, things go in cycles, and you always see things cycled back through, and then it becomes very, very prominent. They give the ball to the fullback sometimes, they're moving their tight end around in all different types of formations, two tight end formations, they've used four different tight ends, they've used four or five different running backs, I believe, two different fullbacks. They get an assortment of wide receivers in there, so they're doing a lot of good things, and they're difficult to prepare for, so they have their own dimension that is difficult to prepare for, and I think they're playing -- they're playing good football, so it will be a challenge.”

Intangibles…

This game is personal in this state. I said long before Dantonio arrived when the Spartans were terrible that records don’t matter this week. It is personal. Bullough said of what this rivalry means to in-state young people, “You know, growing up, it's kinda crazy in this state, especially for my family. It's not you're a Michigan or Michigan State fan, you literally identify yourself as part of the blue and maize or the green and white. That's your identity, that's your everything. Some people don't really understand that that aren't from around here, but I certainly do. I think the guys on our team, you know, start to understand that as they play in this game.”

Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game.

Extra Point…

MSU head coach Mark Dantonio thinks his team in a big rivalry game has an advantage in already battling through so much adversity. “If you're winning every game by a lopsided score, then maybe you're not quite as ready to play a close game. So we have had to play some close games, where we have had to get out fourth downs, on the fourth down stop. We've had to do things at the end of the game offensively to win, to close it out. Probably the biggest thing we have done is close out games. I think you've -- again, you've got to look for reasons why you're successful and you also have to look for reasons to build on, too, and I would say that's one of the things we have been able to do is handle adversity. And I think it should give us confidence in tough games, tough environments and tough situations.”

I like Jim Harbaugh and he is a very good coach. A lot of people forget so is Dantonio and his team has been there and done that. To be the king you have to knock the king off. Until UM beats MSU I will side with the Spartans. They can’t allow conservative offensive play calling cost them this game.

For the first time ever I think this game has a lot more to do with the offensive coaching than the players. We know what MSU players can do, it is time for the coaches to take their foot off the gas. I think they do.

Prediction…

Tico Duckett said 28-21, TJ Duckett says 38-17 and I say make it 24-23: MSU wins!